This chart is the holding period wave chart on the Bitcoin chain, interpreting price tops and bottoms through the distribution of holding times among different groups.
Interpretation method: The proportion of short-term holders (under 6m) often expands rapidly at price highs, representing frequent holding turnover and market overheating; meanwhile, the long-term holding layer shrinks significantly, indicating experienced holders distributing and selling.
Conversely, at cycle bottoms, the proportion of short-term holders shrinks to lows, while the long-term holding layer quietly expands, meaning the market is quiet but holders are not selling, causing holdings to naturally age and liquidity to decline, often signaling bottom accumulation.
Notably, compared to previous cycles, this cycle's long-term holding layer has a higher bottom proportion (the blue-purple layers are overall thicker), reflecting an increase in institutional holders. This holding structure is more robust than before and will also affect how BTC prices form a bottom.
If it does not break below the price support of the dense holding zone, the most likely future scenario is oscillation and digestion between $70k–$82k, a bottom-grinding process of exchanging time for space.
Earlier there was some holding support near $80K, serving as the main price anchor. Unfortunately, momentum is insufficient, so it may next oscillate and digest between $71K–$82K to complete the bottom grind by exchanging time for space.
Additionally, from Bitcoin's URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), the holding distribution between $71–$80K is relatively sparse, belonging to a low-density transition zone. Once prices fall, it is highly likely to challenge the dense holding area at $65.9K-$70.5K.
Based on the above, the price prediction range for this cycle's bottom falls at $65.9K-$70.5K. If $70.5K holds, the bottom grind will proceed slowly in the upper range; if it breaks, the lower support structure needs reassessment.