Wall Street has an old saying: "Sell in May and Walk Away" (Sell in May and then exit).
Unlike the hot AI US stocks, this year's Bitcoin seems to be answering this question with its actual actions.
Monthly Chart Shows Warning Signal
Looking at the technicals first. Bitcoin's May monthly candle is currently forming a Shooting Star pattern. The price briefly surged to $82,500 mid-month but was completely pushed back, with the current price near $75,650, close to the monthly low.
If May closes with this pattern, it is a clear top-rejection signal in technical analysis: bulls attempted to push higher but were strongly suppressed by bears, indicating selling pressure dominated at the highs.
More notably, on May 8, the on-chain indicator STH MVRV, representing the average cost basis of short-term holders, failed to break above the 1.0 level. 1.0 is the breakeven line for short-term positions—breaking above it means average profit, while failing to hold it indicates insufficient rebound momentum, with bears still in control.
This combination also appeared at the end of March 2022, which was a false rally in the middle of a bear market, after which prices continued to decline. History may not repeat, but it often rhymes.
East and West Coast Capital Both Absent
Beyond technicals, funding signals are more direct.
📊 Coinbase Premium Index: −0.136, a recent low. This metric measures whether Bitcoin trades at a premium on Coinbase (the exchange primarily used by US institutions) compared to other exchanges. Negative values indicate absence of institutional buying, now at the worst level in recent months.
📊 Korea Premium Index: −2.1, also deeply negative. Korean retail investors have always been a magnifier of market sentiment—positive values reflect enthusiastic buying, negative values reflect fearful waiting. With both East and West turning negative simultaneously, it indicates that buyers in major global markets are retreating.
📊 On-chain Demand Indicator (30-day): remains negative, showing insufficient overall demand momentum over the past month.
📊 Bitcoin Futures Open Interest (OI): has been sliding since the major liquidation in October 2025. Even the early-May rebound lacked strength, as leveraged capital is unwilling to enter.
Institutional Large Orders Surface
Yesterday (5/26) market news reported: A dark pool executed a massive $1.3 billion IBIT Bitcoin spot ETF sell order.
Dark pools are private trading venues used by large institutions to avoid market impact. Combined with the persistently negative Coinbase Premium, this points to the same conclusion: institutions are quietly distributing their holdings.
Where Are the Coins Being Absorbed?
Notably, despite the bearish macro signals, on-chain URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution) shows that over the past week, more than 80,000 BTC accumulated in the $75,733–$78,258 price range. On May 22 and May 26, price briefly touched $75,464 and $75,838, with buyers stepping in both times.
This indicates the level is not ignored. Some are quietly catching the falling knife, but the buying power is still insufficient to reverse the broader trend.
In summary, "Sell in May and Walk Away" as a seasonal narrative has always been hit or miss. This year, however, it is backed by actual capital flows: institutions selling on Coinbase, a billion-dollar dark pool sell order, on-chain demand turning negative, and weak retail confidence.
The key support level to watch is $75.4—this is the first effective accumulation wall below according to URPD. If this level breaks, the vacuum zone beneath could send prices quickly toward the $70,500 area.
The wall is still holding, but under significant pressure.
May is not over yet. The final monthly candle shape will be confirmed at month-end close.
Data sources: Glassnode, CryptoQuant, TradingView
This is market analysis and does not constitute investment advice. Investing involves risk; please evaluate independently before making decisions.