Bitcoin Bottom Confirmation Signal

With each Bitcoin bear market cycle, everyone asks the same question: Has the bottom arrived?

Technical analysis offers no clear answers, and sentiment is even less reliable. However, there is one on-chain indicator that has quietly performed one task in every past bear market—delivering a confirmation signal after the bottom structure has formed.

It is called SOPR Ratio (LTH-SOPR ÷ STH-SOPR).

What does this indicator measure?

SOPR Ratio = Long-Term Holder Realized Profit ÷ Short-Term Holder Realized Profit

In simple terms, it measures: Between the “veterans” and “newcomers” in the market, who is selling more profitably?

• High ratio → Veterans are realizing large profits and exiting, while newcomers remain near cost basis, corresponding to the distribution phase at bull market tops
• Ratio compression → The profit gap between the two groups narrows, and the market structure is shifting
• Ratio touches 0.5 → Veterans have stopped profit-taking, confirming the end of the bear market structure

Why is SMA60 = 0.5 so important?

Observing the full historical data reveals a pattern: In every bear market, the 60-day moving average of SOPR Ratio converges near 0.5.

However, one important detail must be clarified—

0.5 is not the price low; it is the confirmation point of the bear market structure.

The actual price bottom often appears quietly before SMA60 reaches 0.5. The market may have completed its capitulation earlier, but on-chain data had not yet accumulated enough time to “stamp the confirmation.”

In other words: 0.5 is a confirmation seen in hindsight, not a real-time entry signal.

Why the number 0.5?

The underlying market structure logic is as follows:

At the true bear market bottom, the only long-term holders still willing to sell are those forced to exit at a loss—true believers have already stopped selling, and their behavior is not counted in SOPR. This significantly suppresses LTH-SOPR.

At the same time, a group of short-term holders near the bottom bought during the decline at relatively low cost, so STH-SOPR is actually higher.

The combination of these two forces naturally compresses the ratio toward 0.5—the tipping point where the profit structure between veterans and newcomers has completely flipped.

Current level: SMA60 = 0.8

As of June 2026, SOPR Ratio SMA60 sits at 0.8.

This means:

• Long-term holders still hold a profit advantage, but it has narrowed significantly
• The market has not yet reached the historical bottom confirmation zone
• There is still structural compression room before the 0.5 confirmation point

Combined with the persistent negative Coinbase Premium, lack of meaningful OI recovery, and NRPL moving average declining since October 2025—multiple indicators point to the same conclusion:

The bear market structure continues, and the bottom has not yet been confirmed.

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