Bitcoin's volatility has significantly increased these days, with the price surging from 63K, where short squeezes drove the rise, all the way above 80K. This article compiles today's cross-comparison of technical aspects and on-chain data, incorporating the current market focus on fiscal easing background, to provide readers with a judgment framework. Pattern Turns Bullish, But Not Fully Confirmed Yet On the weekly chart, a right-side inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder neatly aligned, and the price standing above the neckline. However, the band indicator (reflecting market consensus on the trend) has not yet converged, indicating insufficient market agreement on this direction; moreover, this week's weekly candles are not yet complete, so strictly speaking, pattern confirmation requires an actual weekly candle closing above the neckline. Profit-taking Scale Is Large and Has Continued for Several Days Over the six days from 8/19 to 8/24, Net Realized Profit and Loss remained positive continuously, with a rough total estimate of around 4.5-4.8B USD, and peaks exceeding 1.4B each on 8/21 and 8/24. This indicates that during this rally, the scale of profit-taking from previously trapped positions has been substantial, not a one-off event but a persistent source of selling pressure. But Buying Power Is Also Strengthening Simultaneously This is today's most critical finding: combining Spot CVD, Realized Cap, ETF Netflow, and stablecoin exchange reserves shows buying power is indeed strengthening, in a combination rarely seen in the past three months. <ul><li>Spot CVD has flipped from a three-month negative range to positive after 8/18, reaching a three-month high, indicating buyers are continuously absorbing selling pressure, not an illusion from a single large order</li><li>Realized Cap has recently risen noticeably along with the price; this is the most direct indicator for judging "whether new money is entering," showing this rally is not just existing funds swapping hands but involves net new capital inflows</li><li>ETF Netflow has maintained net inflows at the billion-dollar level for three consecutive days, meeting the "sustained" standard rather than a single-day surge</li><li>USDT exchange reserves have continued declining to a yearly low, indicating on-exchange funds are being actively used for buying</li></ul> Two minor warning signs need noting: Spot CVD has cooled slightly in the latest one or two days, while USDC exchange reserves have increased rather than decreased, suggesting some funds remain in a "preparing to enter" stage without yet actively buying. The overall direction leans bullish but has not reached an "unreserved" level. Framework for Readers: Facing the Upcoming Easing Environment The market is also watching discussions of the US Treasury potentially expanding debt buybacks and releasing liquidity. If this direction materializes, it would historically be a favorable macro backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin, but this does not mean ignoring current structural risks. A more prudent framework is to separate "favorable funding conditions" from "whether the short-term position structure is healthy." Easing is a medium-to-long-term tailwind, but this rally simultaneously features the tug-of-war between "large-scale profit-taking" and "strengthening buying power"; whether prices can hold steady short-term depends on which side gives way first—if buying power can continue absorbing sell pressure from profit-taking (CVD and Realized Cap keep rising), the easing tailwind will make this structural strengthening more solid; but if buying momentum cools like in the latest one or two days, even with a shift toward easing, a short-term correction to retest support (67-70K cost zone, 76-78K new position accumulation zone) remains possible. For readers, rather than fixating on "whether to chase highs," a more practical approach is to treat these indicators as a dashboard for ongoing tracking, using whether the structure is strengthening to judge positions, instead of being led solely by price or macro narratives.

#BTC Stands Above 80K: Buying Power Strengthens, But Bullish Turn Still Needs Confirmation

SpaceX (SPCX) Post-IPO Valuation Reshaping, Industry Competitive Landscape, and In-Depth Analysis of Secondary Market Investment Value #SPCX

BTC Bitcoin spot price has surged from around 64K to 66K in the past two days, prompting many to ask: is this wave driven by genuine capital inflows, or another rally fueled by leverage? Combining several on-chain and exchange indicators, the answer is not difficult to piece together. Short Squeeze Ignites, but Leverage Keeps Adding Funding rates turned negative around 7/18-19, indicating bearish sentiment at the time, which triggered the initial rebound through a short squeeze. Interestingly, the rally did not stop after the squeeze—open interest (OI) climbed in tandem from about 21.2B to a new high of 23B, moving almost in sync with the price. This suggests the short squeeze was merely the fuse, while the sustained upward momentum is supported by continuously incoming new leveraged positions rather than a one-time short covering event. Although funding rates have also risen, they remain in a moderate range and have not yet reached overheated or crowded levels. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/9b6bfbe7-c813-4325-a5d1-c271e10e1aac.avif" /> Spot Buying Has Not Followed The performance of the spot market tells a different story. CryptoQuant’s volume classification shows that spot trading volume has remained in a “Cooling” state since April, including the most recent day—indicating that off-exchange real-money buying of spot is quite limited. In contrast, futures volume has stayed in “Neutral” and “Heating” zones, not cooling with spot but also not flashing overheating signals. In other words, this rally appears more like funds in the derivatives market betting against each other to amplify volatility, with no significant increase in spot market participation.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/a594d247-38dc-4680-aafc-64bdec509a5f.avif" /> Off-Exchange Capital Stays on the Sidelines Net stablecoin flows on exchanges have remained negative recently, indicating that “ammunition” previously parked on exchanges ready to enter is flowing out. However, looking at the total stablecoin market cap over a longer period, there has been no collapse—only slower growth and high-side consolidation. This shows that capital is not fleeing the crypto market en masse but is choosing to temporarily withdraw from exchanges and stay on the sidelines.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/8940d0d8-bb32-47d5-a7b6-91c19dbe03a2.avif" /> ETF Flows: Institutions Are Gradually Re-entering, but Scale Remains Limited Notably, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for the second consecutive week. On 7/20, inflows reached approximately $271M, led by IBIT, with ARK, Fidelity, and other funds also participating. ETF subscriptions ultimately translate into actual buying in the spot market, and IBIT leading the inflows is typically seen as a signal of institutions and long-term capital re-adding exposure rather than mere short-term testing of the waters. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/6a81a255-65e8-4626-a82c-f7062bdac74e.avif" /> However, when compared with the earlier spot volume classification, the overall spot market remains in a “Cooling” state, indicating that the scale of ETF inflows has not been sufficient to push the broader spot market temperature indicator out of the cooling zone. In other words, institutional capital is gradually re-entering via ETFs, but retail and general spot market participation remains relatively subdued, creating a divergence in pace between the two. 💡Conclusion Overall, this rebound toward 66K is more accurately described as: a short-term short squeeze igniting the move, with leveraged positions continuing to add and push prices higher, yet spot buying and off-exchange incremental capital have not followed. Historically, such a structure tends to see rapid corrections when momentum fades, because the price is supported by easily liquidated leveraged positions rather than stickier spot buying. There are no overheating signals yet, but it cannot be called a robust rally—before chasing prices, investors should pay closer attention to whether spot volume and stablecoin flows can truly catch up.

Bitcoin Nearing $67,000: Real Demand or Leverage Mirage? #BTC

Since July 2026, Bitcoin's Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR, Stablecoin Supply Ratio) has risen at a pace exceeding the BTC price itself. This means that the expansion of stablecoin liquidity has failed to keep up with the growth of Bitcoin's market capitalization. In other words, the potential buy-side "dry firewood" relative to BTC is gradually tightening. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/db915430-9afc-4bdf-8b21-057164a91fb8.avif" />This divergence usually suggests that market demand is facing more constraints: ♦️Change in upward momentum: Subsequent rallies may rely less on external new stablecoin funds rotating in, and more on the positioning of existing market chips. ♦️Increased pullback risk: If SSR continues to climb while prices stagnate, once a pullback occurs, the corrective force may be more intense. It is worth noting that an SSR increase faster than the coin price is a warning sign, indicating bottlenecks on the demand side, but it does not equate to necessarily being bearish. For investors, this means the market lacks the strong incremental stablecoin liquidity support seen in the early cycle, so the sustainability of rallies weakens, and the damage from price pullbacks is relatively greater. Trading Core and Risk Management: Continuously monitor trends: Watch whether SSR can stabilize or decline afterward (indicating stablecoin liquidity catching up again). Be vigilant about liquidity tightening: If SSR continues to rise, it represents an environment of capital contraction still persisting, and should serve as an important reference indicator for adjusting positions and managing risks. --------------⚠️This article only represents the blogger's personal technical research insights and sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries high risks; please be sure to evaluate independently and bear your own profits and losses.

Bitcoin Buy-side Funds Sound the Alarm! #BTC

即將來臨的10月，是幣圈人看好的“Uptober”。真的是這樣？Or，Uptober 只是迷因呢？今天上線的Youtube 影片，讓我從數據出發，透過分析框架理解Uptober是否會成真。 <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/S6XApI_uF3M?si=daN909cC9fui43oa"></iframe>

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#BTC Stands Above 80K: Buying Power Strengthens, But Bullish Turn Still Needs Confirmation

SpaceX (SPCX) Post-IPO Valuation Reshaping, Industry Competitive Landscape, and In-Depth Analysis of Secondary Market Investment Value #SPCX

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Bitcoin Buy-side Funds Sound the Alarm! #BTC

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