Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was straightforward in his recent Jackson Hole speech: Although summer inflation data looked better than expected, inflation’s “underlying trend” has not truly improved. The Fed’s priority remains price stability; unless inflation can clearly and at a sufficiently rapid pace approach 2%, it’s the same old line—there’s still work to do. What does this signal mean for risk assets? In short: funding costs may not fall as quickly, and the market will need to readjust its expectations for the rate path. Inflation Data and Policy Stance: Hawkish Tone Directly Reprices Rate Expectations Warsh cited the latest PCE data, noting: <ul><li>12-month inflation around 3.7%</li><li>Six-month annualized rate even reached 4.1%</li><li>More than half of the items in the PCE basket still showing year-over-year increases above 3%</li></ul> The key point is not any single number but that the “breadth” of inflation remains wide, making it difficult for the Fed to comfortably shift dovish. The market reacted quickly: before the speech, odds of a September rate hike were priced around 35%; afterward they jumped to 55–60%. Typical follow-on effects followed: the 2-year Treasury yield rose and the dollar strengthened. Immediate Impact on Bitcoin and Risk Assets: Resistance Above 80k, Retracement to 77k Under the combination of a “hawkish Fed + strong dollar + rising short-term rates,” the market naturally targeted high-volatility, zero-yield assets first. After the speech, Bitcoin pulled back from an intraday high near $81,300, briefly breaking below $77,000, with a single-day decline of roughly 3%–3.4%. The total crypto market cap fell in tandem, triggering hundreds of millions of dollars in long liquidations. Ethereum, XRP, and other major coins followed lower—the familiar pattern: when liquidity tightens, high-beta assets are sold first. Why Bitcoin Is Behaving More Like an “Interest-Rate-Sensitive Risk Asset” This Time Many like to call BTC an inflation hedge, but trading behavior shows it is far more sensitive to liquidity and real interest rates as a risk asset. Warsh’s repeated emphasis on “price stability first” and the possibility of rate hikes pushed up: <ul><li>Real-rate expectations</li><li>Dollar funding costs</li></ul> Both factors compress valuation room for risk assets, which is why gold and Bitcoin came under pressure on the hawkish signal. The market is not rejecting Bitcoin’s long-term narrative; it is simply repricing “funding costs” in the short term—that is the core driver of recent price action. After Jackson Hole: Two Scenarios, the Paths You Should Watch Below I lay out two scenarios to help you track developments through a “data → inference” lens. A. Hawkish Continuation (Tighter Liquidity) If subsequent data (PCE, employment, wages) remain hot, the Fed will stick with the “still work to do” narrative, making a September hike or at least a delay in easing unsurprising. In this scenario: <ul><li>Short-term rates and the dollar stay strong</li><li>Risk assets remain under pressure</li><li>Bitcoin could test support around $75,500</li></ul> B. Data-Dependent Patience (Market Gets a Breather) If inflation breadth begins to narrow and core items cool, the Fed will shift toward “no preset path, data-dependent” language. Rate-hike odds would fall, the dollar and short-term rates would weaken, and risk appetite could return. Bitcoin would then have a better chance of retesting the $80,000–$83,000 zone and could pull Ethereum and high-beta altcoins higher. Tracking Checklist Going Forward <ol><li>PCE / Core PCE: watch whether month-on-month readings slow and whether inflation “breadth” narrows</li><li>2Y vs 10Y spread &amp; DXY: the thermometer for funding costs and dollar liquidity</li><li>Bitcoin spot ETF flows + futures open interest: distinguish real buying from leverage-driven moves</li><li>Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index: whether it cools from overheated levels to neutral, signaling if further near-term downside risk remains</li></ol> For longer-term holders, this period looks like a liquidity-driven valuation reset; for short-term traders, the key is watching whether the Fed’s tone shifts from “hawkish probing” to “data-dependent patience.” Once the tone genuinely turns, it often serves as the catalyst for risk assets to re-accelerate.

Fed Inflation Views and Bitcoin: Risk Asset Roadmap After Jackson Hole

Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded significantly since the weekend, with gains of 6.7% and nearly 5% respectively. Market sentiment indicators have warmed in tandem to the "Extreme Greed" zone. More notably, spot ETF fund flow data shows institutional capital making large-scale replenishments on the latest trading day Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of as much as $999 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $381.4 million, Fidelity FBTC contributing $238.8 million, and ARK ARKB contributing $289.1 million. This equates to buying pressure of nearly 12,000 BTC. However, ETF fund inflows are only one piece of the puzzle driving the rally. Key drivers behind this rally: Spot buying turns strong first: Real buying support appears first, followed by shorts being forced to cover.Short squeeze amplifies gains: Single-day Bitcoin short liquidations reached $345 million, acting as an accelerator. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/84e3268e-1316-4b73-a092-2bbc4015d7b8.avif" /> Overhead historical trapped-supply zone is relatively thin: URPD shows low historical transaction density in the $80,000–$85,000 range, meaning limited supply resistance and allowing BTC to cross quickly; it is now entering the next major resistance band: $85,000–$95,000.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f40bb036-52f5-4f44-b9ad-e42136f619b8.avif" />Price outcome: Bitcoin jumped from $81,146 to $86,600, a single-day gain of 6.7%. Behind it lies the triple resonance of “ETF spot demand + short liquidations + thin historical supply.” The next focus will shift higher: To effectively break through the $85K–$95K zone, ETF fund flows must continue to follow through and push prices higher. However, the Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative, signaling a short-term cooling of U.S. spot demand. The market will closely watch U.S. equity trading hours to see whether ETFs can once again deliver strong single-day inflows.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/95819fc8-3bc0-4049-9bc7-e0f86c8c7f2d.avif" />（Data source: Crypto Quant）

Bitcoin Rebounds, ETF Funds See Nearly $1 Billion Inflow

--- Data Observation --- Over the past two weeks, ETH rose from $1,876 on 8/10 to $2,507 on 8/26, an increase of over 30%. Logically, many people's first reaction would be: the on-chain activity should also be hot, right? But the data shows that's not necessarily the case. According to Glassnode's statistics, during the same period, ETH's active address count dropped from 499,000 on 8/20 to 414,000 on 8/26; moreover, from 8/22–8/23 it once fell into the 350,000–370,000 range. In other words: prices are rising, but on-chain usage (at least in terms of active addresses) is declining, and the two lines are moving in opposite directions. If we pull the timeline back a bit further, the situation is even more interesting. At the beginning of August, it was the opposite: ETH's active addresses once surged to a near six-month high (approaching one million per day), but the price was mostly stuck around $1,870, even dipping slightly. Looking at these two periods together, it's like a relay race: first on-chain activity heats up, but prices don't follow; then it's prices' turn to catch up, but on-chain activity cools down instead. This actually reminds us of one thing: "active addresses" and "price" are not necessarily two indicators that move in sync. - Active addresses are more like looking at "how many people are using this chain"—influenced by factors such as L2 expansion, airdrops, DeFi activities, bot interactions, etc.- Price, on the other hand, reflects "how much capital the market is willing to pay for this asset"—more easily driven by factors like ETF fund flows, overall risk sentiment, leverage positions, etc. Because the driving forces are different, short-term divergences are actually quite common. For those just starting to look at on-chain data, a better approach is to view "usage-type indicators" and "capital/price-type indicators" separately; only when both sides consistently show signals in the same direction is it more suitable to use them as references for trend judgment. Conversely, if a single indicator is at odds with the price, it's most likely not a data contradiction, but a reminder that we need to look from more angles together.

Activity Up, Address Numbers Down—What Does This ETH Wave Tell Us?

On September 15, the U.S. Senate’s procedural vote (cloture vote) on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold and did not proceed to formal debate. The House version of the bill had already passed in the summer of 2025; this Senate setback is widely viewed as eliminating any chance of advancement in 2026. Following the news, BTC quickly broke below $75,000, with total liquidations across the network reaching approximately $771 million within 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for about $569 million—indicating a clear deleveraging move. What is Exchange Netflow? Exchange Netflow is one of the most fundamental on-chain metrics, calculated as “total BTC flowing into exchanges” minus “total BTC flowing out of exchanges.” A positive value indicates more BTC is being deposited into exchanges, generally interpreted as increased potential selling pressure; a negative value (shown in red) indicates net outflows, typically interpreted as coins moving into self-custody or long-term holding, with lower short-term selling intent. CryptoQuant separates exchanges into Spot and Derivative categories for separate tracking. This distinction is critical—net flows between the two categories do not always move in sync, and that divergence is exactly what makes this event noteworthy. Derivatives Exchanges: Margin and Liquidation Signals <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/406c19ad-f2d5-4be7-9349-b616b88f642f.avif" />Observing derivatives exchange netflow on the day of the CLARITY Act vote failure, the single-day net inflow expanded sharply, standing out as the most prominent reading in the past month. This anomaly should not be simply read as “large-scale spot selling in the derivatives market.” A more reasonable explanation lies in the margin mechanism: when a sharp price drop triggers cascading liquidations, leveraged traders rush to deposit BTC to top up margin and avoid being liquidated; at the same time, collateral seized from forced long liquidations is credited to exchange wallets. These two forces combined cause derivatives exchange netflow to swing sharply positive—timing that aligns exactly with the $771 million in liquidations (with longs dominating). Spot Exchanges: No Panic Inflows <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/2e852cde-8824-4845-b5e5-7380942b5281.avif" />In the same time window, spot exchange netflow turned negative (outflows). If the decline had been driven by panic selling from spot holders, we would expect spot exchange net inflows to increase (coins deposited for sale). Instead, the data moved in the opposite direction—BTC continued to leave spot exchanges. The size of these outflows is comparable to other notable outflow periods recently, indicating that spot holdings kept moving during the drop, but the direction was withdrawals rather than deposits for selling. Conclusion: Deleveraging Was the Main Driver, Not Spot Panic Selling Viewed together, the signal structure of this decline is clear: the impact originated primarily from forced liquidations and margin calls in the derivatives market. Spot exchanges did not see a simultaneous surge in selling-related inflows, and the coin structure remained relatively stable. This drop was driven by deleveraging, not spot panic selling pressure. This distinction has practical implications for judging the strength of any subsequent rebound. If spot continues to show net outflows and the derivatives inflow spike proves to be a one-time liquidation event, the decline is more likely a short-term deleveraging move rather than the start of a trend reversal. However, if spot also shifts to sustained net inflows in the coming days, it would be necessary to reassess whether spot-side selling pressure is emerging. Looking at netflow from only one exchange category can easily lead to misjudgment; separating spot and derivatives data reveals the full story of coin movements.

CLARITY Act Vote Fails, Divergence in Coin Flows Between Derivatives and Spot Exchanges

🔥 風險投資市場關注的美國央行會議在週五落幕。美國聯準會主席Powell此次發言不鷹不鴿，態度更趨近於中性，唯仍然強調通膨率控制在2%的目標值不變。市場分析師指出，美國的通膨在多次加息下已經趨緩，但仍高於美聯準目標。因此Powell的發言算符合市場預期，也消除了稍早市場對於美國貨幣政策的不確定因素。而Powell對美國經濟持續成長的信心一定程度上也刺激了樂觀情緒，週五的美股三大指數收盤皆震盪走高。 但美股上漲並未給加密貨幣市場帶來足夠的上行動能。美國央行的資金政策維持緊縮，加密貨幣市場流動性不足，以及監管不明確等負面因素尚未移除，因此BTC自上週中暴跌後，本週在$26000上下維持震盪。 而以太幣也受大盤影響在上週大幅下跌，目前守在$1650支撐。然而受到以太幣期貨ETF將通過SEC批准和巨鯨大量買入（根據Lookonchain，本週巨鯨共買入9千4百萬美元的ETH）的利好消息影響，ETH接下來一週有可能有反彈上漲的機會。 <img src='https://static.fansone.co/images/3eeea2e7-f8f5-4540-aab4-d0d04135f664.jpg'>以下是本週Web3、NFT、鏈遊、元宇宙與AI的重點新聞updates。 </p

元宇宙市場週報 0821 - 0827

Creator other post

Fed Inflation Views and Bitcoin: Risk Asset Roadmap After Jackson Hole

Bitcoin Rebounds, ETF Funds See Nearly $1 Billion Inflow

Activity Up, Address Numbers Down—What Does This ETH Wave Tell Us?

CLARITY Act Vote Fails, Divergence in Coin Flows Between Derivatives and Spot Exchanges

Random Post

台南安平景點 / 走進書法名家的日式老宅，感受墨香與歷史交織的人文風景

【幻境生物誌】No.013 森眠熊

[Taipei](Eat-Food) El Marques Exquisite Authentic Spanish Restaurant and Wine Bar

Nononnoo