1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:03,839
歡迎收聽股癌的第一期線上節目,我是謝孟恭
2
00:00:03,839 --> 00:00:08,199
今天的時間是2月28號的凌晨2點41分
3
00:00:08,199 --> 00:00:13,560
我從凌晨12點半錄開頭1到5分鐘左右
4
00:00:13,560 --> 00:00:15,359
一直瘋狂的咳嗽
5
00:00:15,359 --> 00:00:18,940
可來個靠北,我已經錄了30幾次了,到現在我決定豁出去了
6
00:00:18,940 --> 00:00:23,039
如果大家咳嗽,我就是把嘴巴離開麥克風,就這樣就好了
7
00:00:23,039 --> 00:00:25,339
請大家多多擔待
8
00:00:25,339 --> 00:00:28,660
那很多人都想說你是不是得了武漢肺炎啊,沒有啦
9
00:00:28,820 --> 00:00:31,740
我3個禮拜前在西班牙的時候
10
00:00:31,740 --> 00:00:34,539
本來是先在義大利感冒
11
00:00:34,539 --> 00:00:37,359
那這個感冒之後呢,後來
12
00:00:37,359 --> 00:00:43,000
本來就是只有小症狀,那後來到這個西班牙的時候就變得很嚴重
13
00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:44,780
所以就跑去看醫生
14
00:00:44,780 --> 00:00:47,859
那去看醫生前其實是非常糾結的,因為
15
00:00:47,859 --> 00:00:52,719
現在在歐洲呢,其實反亞洲人的這個氣氛
16
00:00:52,719 --> 00:00:54,260
是蠻濃厚的
17
00:00:54,260 --> 00:00:56,820
因為我每年都會在歐洲待一陣子,所以
18
00:00:57,020 --> 00:01:01,380
今年的感覺絕對是非常明顯的,我以前都沒有這樣的感覺
19
00:01:01,380 --> 00:01:06,540
當然就是因為武漢肺炎的關係,其實他們在地的媒體呢,把它
20
00:01:06,540 --> 00:01:07,840
爆得非常可怕
21
00:01:07,840 --> 00:01:14,240
我那時候還在義大利跟西班牙的時候,義大利是3例確診,而且都是中國人
22
00:01:14,240 --> 00:01:17,060
西班牙是2例,也都是中國人
23
00:01:17,060 --> 00:01:18,840
就是有個位數而已
24
00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:24,620
但是他們當地的媒體把它渲染的很嚴重,不過當然現在看來是很嚴重啦
25
00:01:24,620 --> 00:01:28,579
但當時呢,其實是有一點我認為是
26
00:01:28,579 --> 00:01:31,460
針對中國人的這個
27
00:01:31,460 --> 00:01:34,900
報導方式去做的,那當然針對中國人呢,其實到最後就是
28
00:01:34,900 --> 00:01:38,060
一定是一起達到所有的亞洲人
29
00:01:38,060 --> 00:01:40,920
很多人會想說,你不是台灣人嗎?不是日本人嗎?
30
00:01:40,920 --> 00:01:43,420
韓國人嗎?不是不一樣嗎?不然你掛個小國旗
31
00:01:43,420 --> 00:01:45,620
沒有啦,其實那沒有屌用,因為
32
00:01:45,620 --> 00:01:49,020
在地會知道你是哪裡的人太少了
33
00:01:49,020 --> 00:01:50,260
真的太少了,所以
34
00:01:50,260 --> 00:01:53,500
他們可能就是看你的膚色,最簡單就是看你的膚色嘛
35
00:01:53,500 --> 00:01:58,579
那當然就是目前在歐洲的氛圍,就是看到亞洲人會閃
36
00:01:58,579 --> 00:02:00,579
有些計程車會聚在
37
00:02:00,579 --> 00:02:05,739
那在一些餐廳呢,像譬如說在羅馬的餐廳就有上新聞
38
00:02:05,739 --> 00:02:07,739
他們就是拒接中國人
39
00:02:08,900 --> 00:02:11,620
不過當然這個羅馬的市長有出來譴責啦
40
00:02:11,620 --> 00:02:15,180
那,譴責也沒有什麼用,因為大家還是怕嘛
41
00:02:15,180 --> 00:02:19,620
就是在這樣的氛圍之下,其實那時候很猶豫到底要不要去看醫生
42
00:02:19,659 --> 00:02:22,740
那大家還是覺得說不行啦,生病了就還是要去看一下
43
00:02:22,740 --> 00:02:24,740
到底是什麼樣的狀況
44
00:02:25,340 --> 00:02:29,700
所以到了醫院之後呢,就付了八千多塊的
45
00:02:29,700 --> 00:02:31,219
診療費用
46
00:02:31,219 --> 00:02:33,939
那大家當然很緊張啊,看到亞洲人進來
47
00:02:33,939 --> 00:02:36,860
他的那個牆上就已經貼了一個中國地圖
48
00:02:36,860 --> 00:02:38,860
不過當然就是把台灣也包含在裡面
49
00:02:38,860 --> 00:02:40,860
然後把武漢標出來,就說你
50
00:02:40,860 --> 00:02:44,460
最近呢,有沒有到武漢,請幫助我們治療你
51
00:02:45,140 --> 00:02:47,140
他就問我說,你有沒有去過武漢啊?我說
52
00:02:47,699 --> 00:02:50,899
呃,沒有,我是台灣來的,我從來沒有去過武漢
53
00:02:51,459 --> 00:02:53,459
那我也沒有去過中國
54
00:02:53,459 --> 00:02:55,459
那他就想說,好吧沒關係
55
00:02:55,459 --> 00:02:58,259
那你就排隊等治療
56
00:02:58,259 --> 00:03:01,539
那馬上就,當然就先把那個口罩塞給我
57
00:03:01,539 --> 00:03:05,339
我自己是想買口罩,不過其實已經買不到口罩了
58
00:03:05,339 --> 00:03:08,819
整個歐洲的口罩都被中國人
59
00:03:08,819 --> 00:03:11,539
以中國人為主啦,當然亞洲很多人也有在掃
60
00:03:11,539 --> 00:03:13,539
以中國人為主,他們把口罩都掃光了
61
00:03:13,539 --> 00:03:15,539
所以基本上是買不到口罩的
62
00:03:15,539 --> 00:03:17,539
他就給了我一個口罩
63
00:03:17,539 --> 00:03:19,539
然後全部人當然很緊張啊,我進去
64
00:03:19,539 --> 00:03:21,539
診間的時候,護士就先
65
00:03:21,539 --> 00:03:23,539
幫我消毒,全身消毒,手消毒
66
00:03:23,539 --> 00:03:25,539
給我戴上醫療手套
67
00:03:25,539 --> 00:03:27,539
然後噴消毒液
68
00:03:27,539 --> 00:03:29,539
然後醫療頭套,之後醫生才進來看我
69
00:03:29,539 --> 00:03:31,539
不過,看下來呢
70
00:03:31,539 --> 00:03:33,539
是沒事啦,還好是沒有事情
71
00:03:33,539 --> 00:03:35,539
打了退燒針之後
72
00:03:35,539 --> 00:03:37,539
開了藥就叫我回去了
73
00:03:37,539 --> 00:03:39,539
那回去之後
74
00:03:39,539 --> 00:03:41,539
其實就好很多了,只是到現在
75
00:03:41,539 --> 00:03:43,539
還是會有這種零星的咳嗽
76
00:03:43,539 --> 00:03:45,539
所以那時候
77
00:03:45,539 --> 00:03:47,539
回來的時候,其實我蠻老實的
78
00:03:47,539 --> 00:03:49,539
我當然老實是應該的啦
79
00:03:49,539 --> 00:03:51,539
因為義大利跟台灣
80
00:03:51,539 --> 00:03:53,539
已經斷航了
81
00:03:53,539 --> 00:03:55,539
所以我從義大利的fiumicino
82
00:03:55,539 --> 00:03:57,539
我必須到法蘭克府
83
00:03:57,539 --> 00:03:59,539
去轉機回來台灣
84
00:03:59,539 --> 00:04:01,539
在法蘭克福的時候呢
85
00:04:01,539 --> 00:04:03,539
就有這個當地的大媽地勤
86
00:04:03,539 --> 00:04:05,539
穿著華航的制服
87
00:04:05,539 --> 00:04:07,539
這時候才覺得說,哇操原來那個
88
00:04:07,539 --> 00:04:09,539
這個
89
00:04:09,539 --> 00:04:11,539
華航制服好看是看人啦
90
00:04:11,539 --> 00:04:13,539
然後台灣的空姐穿起來很好看
91
00:04:13,539 --> 00:04:15,539
可是這個大媽穿起來
92
00:04:15,539 --> 00:04:17,539
就...
93
00:04:17,539 --> 00:04:19,539
那他就給我填了一份就是說
94
00:04:19,539 --> 00:04:21,539
你要先自我檢驗
95
00:04:21,539 --> 00:04:23,539
你有沒有去過武漢
96
00:04:23,539 --> 00:04:25,539
或是有沒有去過中國或香港
97
00:04:25,539 --> 00:04:27,539
那時候是這樣啦
98
00:04:27,539 --> 00:04:29,539
因為那時候主要的疫區是這樣
99
00:04:29,539 --> 00:04:31,539
那如果有的話,你要承認
100
00:04:31,539 --> 00:04:33,539
因為如果你不承認的話,你必須要承擔這個
101
00:04:33,539 --> 00:04:35,539
法律的責任,那當然就沒有嘛
102
00:04:35,539 --> 00:04:37,539
就上飛機了,上飛機之後呢
103
00:04:37,539 --> 00:04:39,539
他又再給我們寫了另外一張就是說
104
00:04:39,540 --> 00:04:41,540
你有沒有
105
00:04:41,540 --> 00:04:43,540
發燒,你有沒有感冒
106
00:04:43,540 --> 00:04:45,540
你有沒有咳嗽,那我當然就是很承認
107
00:04:45,540 --> 00:04:47,540
就全部都勾起來了
108
00:04:47,540 --> 00:04:49,540
那下飛機之後,本來自己已經有心理準備說
109
00:04:49,540 --> 00:04:51,540
應該是會
110
00:04:51,540 --> 00:04:53,540
如果沒有被隔離,應該也是居家隔離
111
00:04:53,540 --> 00:04:55,540
一個十四天吧
112
00:04:55,540 --> 00:04:57,540
因為畢竟我有生病,不過其實在那個
113
00:04:57,540 --> 00:04:59,540
通關的時候呢
114
00:04:59,540 --> 00:05:01,540
他看到我有勾
115
00:05:01,540 --> 00:05:03,540
那就是把我拉到隔壁去量體溫
116
00:05:03,540 --> 00:05:05,540
量完之後就放我走
117
00:05:05,540 --> 00:05:07,540
我說啊我不用隔離嗎,他就說
118
00:05:07,540 --> 00:05:09,540
你不是預計回來的
119
00:05:09,540 --> 00:05:11,540
誰知道現在義大利變成疫區
120
00:05:11,540 --> 00:05:13,540
那時候我的
121
00:05:13,540 --> 00:05:15,540
丈母娘
122
00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:17,540
她住義大利,她就講說
123
00:05:17,540 --> 00:05:19,540
不如你就不要回台灣好了啦
124
00:05:19,540 --> 00:05:21,540
現在台灣的疫情這麼嚴重
125
00:05:21,540 --> 00:05:23,540
你就留在這裡吧,看怎麼樣再說
126
00:05:23,540 --> 00:05:25,540
那我那時候想說
127
00:05:25,540 --> 00:05:27,540
嗯,沒錯,賺錢有數,生命要顧
128
00:05:27,540 --> 00:05:29,540
就留在那好了
129
00:05:29,540 --> 00:05:31,540
但後來就是
130
00:05:31,540 --> 00:05:33,540
一轉念一想,沒有沒有
131
00:05:33,540 --> 00:05:35,540
生死有命,富貴在天,幹,還是要回來賺錢
132
00:05:35,540 --> 00:05:37,540
所以就還是決定要回來
133
00:05:37,540 --> 00:05:39,540
現在看起來就是非常棒的決定
134
00:05:39,540 --> 00:05:41,540
因為本來義大利只有3例
135
00:05:41,540 --> 00:05:43,540
後來一路暴增到500多例
136
00:05:43,540 --> 00:05:45,540
到現在呢
137
00:05:45,540 --> 00:05:47,540
他們,我看一下這個資料
138
00:05:47,540 --> 00:05:49,540
義大利目前
139
00:05:49,540 --> 00:05:51,540
528例,死亡14個
140
00:05:51,540 --> 00:05:53,540
痊癒42個,而且他們有非常
141
00:05:53,540 --> 00:05:55,540
多的重症
142
00:05:55,540 --> 00:05:57,540
那因為義大利我
143
00:05:57,540 --> 00:05:59,540
好幾年都有去
144
00:05:59,540 --> 00:06:01,540
待的時間都不短
145
00:06:01,540 --> 00:06:03,540
就我對他們的觀察,第一個當然就是
146
00:06:03,540 --> 00:06:05,540
亞洲人其實他們本身都不喜歡戴口罩
147
00:06:05,540 --> 00:06:07,540
因為他們認為說戴口罩
148
00:06:07,540 --> 00:06:09,540
就是生病的人才要戴
149
00:06:09,540 --> 00:06:11,540
那不然就是說
150
00:06:11,540 --> 00:06:13,540
還有另外一個說法就是說
151
00:06:13,540 --> 00:06:15,540
如果你生病到需要戴口罩,那你根本連出門都不應該
152
00:06:15,540 --> 00:06:17,540
出門
153
00:06:17,540 --> 00:06:19,540
所以戴口罩在那邊是異類,不管你是不是亞洲人
154
00:06:19,540 --> 00:06:21,540
你只要戴口罩,大家就是盯著你看
155
00:06:21,540 --> 00:06:23,540
所以他們不喜歡戴口罩
156
00:06:23,540 --> 00:06:25,540
也沒有什麼預防的觀念
157
00:06:25,540 --> 00:06:27,540
認為說戴口罩可以避免
158
00:06:27,540 --> 00:06:29,540
疾病啊,我在這個大眾運輸
159
00:06:29,540 --> 00:06:31,540
上面要戴,沒有沒有,都沒有這樣的想法
160
00:06:31,540 --> 00:06:33,540
那第二點呢,是因為他們的醫療費用比較貴
161
00:06:35,540 --> 00:06:37,540
那這個以他現在
162
00:06:37,540 --> 00:06:39,540
大爆發的米蘭啊,或者說
163
00:06:39,540 --> 00:06:41,540
羅馬啊,這種大城呢,其實他們有
164
00:06:41,540 --> 00:06:43,540
很多的
165
00:06:43,540 --> 00:06:45,540
外籍人士,或者說
166
00:06:45,540 --> 00:06:47,540
移民啊,他們
167
00:06:47,540 --> 00:06:49,540
沒有辦法去負擔醫療
168
00:06:49,540 --> 00:06:51,540
因為連義大利人自己看醫生也不便宜啦
169
00:06:51,540 --> 00:06:53,540
所以他們很多
170
00:06:53,540 --> 00:06:55,540
很多呢,會在
171
00:06:55,540 --> 00:06:57,540
真的病到受不了的時候
172
00:06:57,540 --> 00:06:59,540
才會去看醫生
173
00:06:59,540 --> 00:07:01,540
所以我判斷啦
174
00:07:01,540 --> 00:07:03,540
這也是因為
175
00:07:03,540 --> 00:07:05,540
因為真的病到已經沒有辦法
176
00:07:05,540 --> 00:07:07,540
那個症狀很嚴重
177
00:07:07,540 --> 00:07:09,540
所以可能到醫院
178
00:07:09,540 --> 00:07:11,540
也沒有辦法救你了啦
179
00:07:11,540 --> 00:07:13,540
所以才會搞得這麼嚴重
180
00:07:13,540 --> 00:07:15,540
那這次的崩盤
181
00:07:15,540 --> 00:07:17,540
很多媒體已經幫你寫出來了
182
00:07:17,540 --> 00:07:19,540
就是說,是因為義大利
183
00:07:19,540 --> 00:07:21,540
的疫情擴散
184
00:07:21,540 --> 00:07:23,540
所以可能嚇到了歐美區
185
00:07:23,540 --> 00:07:25,540
我認為,對啦
186
00:07:25,540 --> 00:07:27,540
是最主要的主力
187
00:07:27,540 --> 00:07:29,540
應該就是這樣沒錯
188
00:07:29,540 --> 00:07:31,540
因為歐盟的國家
189
00:07:31,540 --> 00:07:33,540
你申請之後,你就可以加入
190
00:07:33,540 --> 00:07:35,540
申根區
191
00:07:35,540 --> 00:07:37,540
那基本上大家喜歡去的觀光大國
192
00:07:37,540 --> 00:07:39,540
都是申根區的會員
193
00:07:39,540 --> 00:07:41,540
那深耕區的意思就是說
194
00:07:41,540 --> 00:07:43,540
如果你飛飛機,譬如說
195
00:07:43,540 --> 00:07:45,540
你飛到阿姆斯特丹
196
00:07:45,540 --> 00:07:47,540
那你在阿姆斯特丹那邊入境之後
197
00:07:47,540 --> 00:07:49,540
基本上你在其他的申根區
198
00:07:49,540 --> 00:07:51,540
的國家,你就可以自由走動了
199
00:07:51,540 --> 00:07:53,540
好像他們沒有國境一樣
200
00:07:53,540 --> 00:07:55,540
那也因為如此呢,他們的來往
201
00:07:55,540 --> 00:07:57,540
非常方便
202
00:07:57,540 --> 00:07:59,540
也就是說,像之前的難民事件
203
00:07:59,540 --> 00:08:01,540
很多難民從
204
00:08:01,540 --> 00:08:03,540
希臘上岸,然後就一路跑去德國
205
00:08:03,540 --> 00:08:05,540
就是暢行無阻
206
00:08:05,540 --> 00:08:07,540
就是一樣的道理啦
207
00:08:07,540 --> 00:08:09,540
所以現在很多人就擔心說,譬如說
208
00:08:09,540 --> 00:08:11,540
義大利爆掉了,那會不會其他的
209
00:08:11,540 --> 00:08:13,540
申根區跟著一起爆掉
210
00:08:13,540 --> 00:08:15,540
到最後整個歐洲爆掉
211
00:08:15,540 --> 00:08:17,540
那歐洲爆掉的過程,美國會不會跟著爆掉
212
00:08:17,540 --> 00:08:19,540
所以這個恐慌就出來了
213
00:08:19,540 --> 00:08:21,540
那
214
00:08:21,540 --> 00:08:23,540
美股呢,最近
215
00:08:23,540 --> 00:08:25,540
4天,從29100點
216
00:08:27,540 --> 00:08:29,540
下殺到現在
217
00:08:29,540 --> 00:08:31,540
今天是第5天
218
00:08:31,540 --> 00:08:33,539
今天呢,本來
219
00:08:33,539 --> 00:08:35,539
稍早也是1000點招待
220
00:08:35,539 --> 00:08:37,539
那後來來一個大的反彈
221
00:08:37,539 --> 00:08:39,539
彈到的26700多點
222
00:08:43,539 --> 00:08:45,539
那目前現在時間凌晨2點50分
223
00:08:45,539 --> 00:08:47,539
是26400點左右
224
00:08:49,539 --> 00:08:51,539
算是,目前看來
225
00:08:51,539 --> 00:08:53,539
是收了一個長長的下引線
226
00:08:55,539 --> 00:08:57,539
那看到下引線其實不要太興奮
227
00:08:57,539 --> 00:08:59,539
我知道很多人呢,看到下引線
228
00:08:59,539 --> 00:09:01,539
就會直覺的認為說
229
00:09:01,539 --> 00:09:03,539
這個是收了一個腳
230
00:09:03,539 --> 00:09:05,539
或者說他有支撐
231
00:09:05,539 --> 00:09:07,539
那技術分析其實
232
00:09:07,539 --> 00:09:09,539
有深有淺,每個人的看法
233
00:09:09,539 --> 00:09:11,539
不太一樣,當然能賺錢的就是好方法
234
00:09:13,539 --> 00:09:15,539
那我分享我的看法,我認為這個
235
00:09:15,539 --> 00:09:17,539
下引線呢,他其實就只是指說
236
00:09:17,539 --> 00:09:19,539
開盤之後往下殺
237
00:09:19,539 --> 00:09:21,539
資金把它買上來而已,就這麼單純
238
00:09:23,539 --> 00:09:25,539
資金把它買上來不代表
239
00:09:25,539 --> 00:09:27,539
這個資金或是說後續的資金
240
00:09:27,539 --> 00:09:29,539
會有意圖要
241
00:09:29,539 --> 00:09:31,539
收復失土,繼續往上進攻
242
00:09:31,539 --> 00:09:33,539
這還要看後續的走勢怎麼樣
243
00:09:33,539 --> 00:09:35,539
用一根K棒就要
244
00:09:35,539 --> 00:09:37,539
說他是一個反轉
245
00:09:37,539 --> 00:09:39,539
有點太武斷了
246
00:09:39,539 --> 00:09:41,539
而且這個長下影線
247
00:09:41,539 --> 00:09:43,539
雖然很多人說他就是一個大反彈的象徵
248
00:09:45,539 --> 00:09:47,539
但如果你仔細的回測過
249
00:09:47,539 --> 00:09:49,539
你會發現多的是長下影線之後
250
00:09:49,539 --> 00:09:51,539
崩跌
251
00:09:51,539 --> 00:09:53,539
或者是說長上影線之後
252
00:09:53,539 --> 00:09:55,539
繼續往上漲
253
00:09:55,539 --> 00:09:57,539
他只是代表
254
00:09:57,539 --> 00:09:59,539
盤中有曾經進攻過
255
00:09:59,539 --> 00:10:01,539
或是說曾經下跌過後來被推回來
256
00:10:01,539 --> 00:10:03,539
就這樣子的意思而已
257
00:10:03,539 --> 00:10:05,539
我認為是這樣
258
00:10:05,539 --> 00:10:07,539
那本波美股下跌呢
259
00:10:07,539 --> 00:10:09,539
因為其實美股參與的散戶
260
00:10:09,539 --> 00:10:11,539
跟我們台灣的環境
261
00:10:11,539 --> 00:10:13,539
比起來,他們參與的散戶
262
00:10:13,539 --> 00:10:15,539
是相對少的
263
00:10:15,539 --> 00:10:17,539
所以說
264
00:10:17,539 --> 00:10:19,539
本波大量的下跌
265
00:10:19,539 --> 00:10:21,539
其實可以解讀成說
266
00:10:21,539 --> 00:10:23,539
是因為ETF這些基金
267
00:10:23,539 --> 00:10:25,539
他們在作怪
268
00:10:25,539 --> 00:10:27,539
因為基金其實是很多散戶在買
269
00:10:27,539 --> 00:10:29,539
那今天如果發生恐慌的時候
270
00:10:29,539 --> 00:10:31,539
散戶要贖回
271
00:10:31,539 --> 00:10:33,539
這些買基金的人要贖回
272
00:10:33,539 --> 00:10:35,539
這些基金
273
00:10:35,539 --> 00:10:37,539
那基金經理人他們就必須要去
274
00:10:37,539 --> 00:10:39,539
把這個基金對應的股票給看了
275
00:10:41,539 --> 00:10:43,539
那如果說很多人一起贖回的時候
276
00:10:43,539 --> 00:10:45,539
那幾對一樣,門很小大家都要衝出去
277
00:10:45,539 --> 00:10:47,539
那在股票的狀況呢
278
00:10:47,539 --> 00:10:49,539
如果今天門很小就是沒有人接
279
00:10:49,539 --> 00:10:51,539
沒有人接,可是一堆人要賣
280
00:10:51,539 --> 00:10:53,539
那當然就是大跌
281
00:10:53,539 --> 00:10:55,539
以台股的狀況來說呢
282
00:10:55,539 --> 00:10:57,539
目前的狀況是
283
00:10:57,539 --> 00:10:59,539
因為美債的殖利率創新低
284
00:10:59,539 --> 00:11:01,539
這個殖利率倒掛
285
00:11:01,539 --> 00:11:03,539
資金緊翹
286
00:11:03,539 --> 00:11:05,539
其實目前的資金都是往
287
00:11:05,539 --> 00:11:07,539
避險的商品去流動
288
00:11:07,539 --> 00:11:09,539
全世界資金都往美元的資產去跑
289
00:11:09,539 --> 00:11:11,539
美元指數也創新高
290
00:11:11,539 --> 00:11:13,539
大家就想說
291
00:11:13,539 --> 00:11:15,539
台股最近被賣了兩千多億元
292
00:11:15,539 --> 00:11:17,539
這幾天被賣了兩千多億元
293
00:11:19,539 --> 00:11:21,539
是不是外資要
294
00:11:21,539 --> 00:11:23,539
棄守台股往外跑了
295
00:11:23,539 --> 00:11:25,539
目前看來我認為不完全
296
00:11:25,539 --> 00:11:27,539
還要再觀察
297
00:11:27,539 --> 00:11:29,539
因為台幣的匯率
298
00:11:29,539 --> 00:11:31,539
對美金的匯率還在
299
00:11:31,539 --> 00:11:33,539
升值
300
00:11:33,539 --> 00:11:35,539
已經連續三升了
301
00:11:35,539 --> 00:11:37,539
就如果說他們把股票賣掉
302
00:11:37,539 --> 00:11:39,539
他們是要逃離台灣的話
303
00:11:39,539 --> 00:11:41,539
台幣應該是要貶的
304
00:11:41,539 --> 00:11:43,539
而且
305
00:11:43,539 --> 00:11:45,539
這些外資
306
00:11:45,539 --> 00:11:47,539
如果把股票賣掉
307
00:11:47,539 --> 00:11:49,539
他們的錢是不能夠
308
00:11:49,539 --> 00:11:51,539
在台幣帳戶裡面停太久的
309
00:11:51,539 --> 00:11:53,539
會被金管會邀去喝茶
310
00:11:53,539 --> 00:11:55,539
所以說一般來說他們如果
311
00:11:55,539 --> 00:11:57,539
賣掉了他們不把錢匯走的話
312
00:11:57,539 --> 00:11:59,539
他們早晚是要回來股市裡面的
313
00:11:59,539 --> 00:12:01,539
所以下禮拜
314
00:12:01,539 --> 00:12:03,539
我們可以觀察看看說
315
00:12:03,539 --> 00:12:05,539
到底匯率會怎麼走
316
00:12:05,539 --> 00:12:07,539
就可以大概知道外資的動向
317
00:12:07,539 --> 00:12:09,539
但是也不代表說
318
00:12:09,539 --> 00:12:11,539
譬如說外資往外跑
319
00:12:11,539 --> 00:12:13,539
台股就要崩盤了
320
00:12:13,539 --> 00:12:15,539
也沒有這樣啦
321
00:12:15,539 --> 00:12:17,539
因為其實台股所謂我們本土的
322
00:12:17,539 --> 00:12:19,539
作手本土的大戶
323
00:12:19,539 --> 00:12:21,539
買贏外資認錯也是很常見的
324
00:12:21,539 --> 00:12:23,539
所以外資他最多
325
00:12:23,539 --> 00:12:25,539
就是一個指標
326
00:12:25,539 --> 00:12:27,539
大家看看就好了
327
00:12:27,539 --> 00:12:29,539
那這個武漢疫情
328
00:12:29,539 --> 00:12:31,539
現在大家就很好奇說
329
00:12:31,539 --> 00:12:33,539
他到底會不會
330
00:12:33,539 --> 00:12:35,539
再有很可怕的後續影響
331
00:12:35,539 --> 00:12:37,539
其實
332
00:12:37,539 --> 00:12:39,539
現在甚至有一些說法是這樣
333
00:12:39,539 --> 00:12:41,539
說其實搞不好很多人早就已經
334
00:12:41,539 --> 00:12:43,539
得過了武漢肺炎
335
00:12:43,539 --> 00:12:45,539
新冠狀病毒只是因為
336
00:12:45,539 --> 00:12:47,539
症狀有些人是輕症
337
00:12:47,539 --> 00:12:49,539
有些人根本就是沒有症狀
338
00:12:49,539 --> 00:12:51,539
就可能就痊癒了那個血液裡面
339
00:12:51,539 --> 00:12:53,539
就有抗體了
340
00:12:53,539 --> 00:12:55,539
到底有多少人得到
341
00:12:55,539 --> 00:12:57,539
其實我是認為
342
00:12:57,539 --> 00:12:59,539
你現在再看你就知道說
343
00:12:59,539 --> 00:13:01,539
很多時候他驗的好幾次是隱形
344
00:13:01,539 --> 00:13:03,539
最後面他驗出是陽性
345
00:13:03,539 --> 00:13:05,539
可能很多人根本就得到
346
00:13:05,539 --> 00:13:07,539
驗不出來
347
00:13:07,539 --> 00:13:09,539
但我認為也不用太恐慌
348
00:13:09,539 --> 00:13:11,539
因為以目前
349
00:13:11,539 --> 00:13:13,539
至少以我們周邊國家
350
00:13:13,539 --> 00:13:15,539
或是拿台灣的例子來看
351
00:13:15,539 --> 00:13:17,539
致死率不是太高
352
00:13:17,539 --> 00:13:19,539
那以中國的例子來看
353
00:13:19,539 --> 00:13:21,539
雖然很多人講說中國一定是做假資料
354
00:13:21,539 --> 00:13:23,539
他的致死率
355
00:13:23,539 --> 00:13:25,539
怎麼可能這麼低
356
00:13:25,539 --> 00:13:27,539
他們一定死了很多人
357
00:13:27,539 --> 00:13:29,539
焚化爐一定24小時在燒
358
00:13:29,539 --> 00:13:31,539
其實我覺得這樣的說法
359
00:13:31,539 --> 00:13:33,539
當然就是基於對於中國政權的不信任
360
00:13:33,539 --> 00:13:35,539
可是這樣也會有一個問題
361
00:13:35,539 --> 00:13:37,539
因為對中國政權的不信任
362
00:13:37,539 --> 00:13:39,539
所以所有的陰謀論都會看起來很合理
363
00:13:39,539 --> 00:13:41,539
那因為所有陰謀論看起來很合理
364
00:13:41,539 --> 00:13:43,539
很多時候在中國股市
365
00:13:43,539 --> 00:13:45,539
像大家把他們看很壞
366
00:13:45,539 --> 00:13:47,539
結果中國股市
367
00:13:47,539 --> 00:13:49,539
在他們開盤最低點
368
00:13:49,539 --> 00:13:51,539
新春開盤最低點
369
00:13:51,539 --> 00:13:53,539
就一路往上軋
370
00:13:53,539 --> 00:13:55,539
你把中國看很壞他反而把你軋壞了
371
00:13:55,539 --> 00:13:57,539
那你有多少錢給他軋
372
00:13:57,539 --> 00:13:59,539
很多時候是這樣
373
00:13:59,539 --> 00:14:01,539
你看對譬如說
374
00:14:01,539 --> 00:14:03,539
共產黨真的會倒掉中國真的會滅亡好了
375
00:14:03,539 --> 00:14:05,539
最糟的狀況
376
00:14:05,539 --> 00:14:07,539
可是你在錯的時間
377
00:14:07,539 --> 00:14:09,539
進去放空他你還是被他軋到
378
00:14:09,539 --> 00:14:11,539
可能你先破產了
379
00:14:11,539 --> 00:14:13,539
那可能共產黨10幾年後才倒
380
00:14:13,539 --> 00:14:15,539
這很有可能
381
00:14:15,539 --> 00:14:17,539
最近的股市的走勢
382
00:14:17,539 --> 00:14:19,539
甚至是看起來是這樣
383
00:14:19,539 --> 00:14:21,539
中國的股市一路在創高
384
00:14:21,539 --> 00:14:23,539
好像他們生病的不是他們
385
00:14:23,539 --> 00:14:25,539
他們比較像是恐慌了之後
386
00:14:25,539 --> 00:14:27,539
生病的其實不是他們
387
00:14:27,539 --> 00:14:29,539
他們一路往上漲
388
00:14:29,539 --> 00:14:31,539
那反而歐美這邊
389
00:14:31,539 --> 00:14:33,539
跌了之後反彈又不像樣
390
00:14:33,539 --> 00:14:35,539
又繼續往下跌
391
00:14:35,539 --> 00:14:37,539
特別是歐洲的股市也很慘
392
00:14:37,539 --> 00:14:39,539
看起來好像他們更嚴重
393
00:14:39,539 --> 00:14:41,539
或是說更害怕
394
00:14:41,539 --> 00:14:43,539
那目前這個武漢肺炎
395
00:14:43,539 --> 00:14:45,539
他其實
396
00:14:45,539 --> 00:14:47,539
造成的影響會
397
00:14:47,539 --> 00:14:49,539
非常大這其實大家一開始就知道
398
00:14:49,539 --> 00:14:51,539
但是只是台股這邊
399
00:14:51,539 --> 00:14:53,539
可能很多人講說
400
00:14:53,539 --> 00:14:55,539
會有轉單的效應
401
00:14:55,539 --> 00:14:57,539
可能也沒有料
402
00:14:57,539 --> 00:14:59,539
那或者說你有料
403
00:14:59,539 --> 00:15:01,539
但是你沒有需求
404
00:15:01,539 --> 00:15:03,539
因為目前中國的停工
405
00:15:03,539 --> 00:15:05,539
還是很嚴重
406
00:15:05,539 --> 00:15:07,539
我在PTT的版上
407
00:15:07,539 --> 00:15:09,539
我是看到很多人
408
00:15:09,539 --> 00:15:11,539
他們的風向是比較
409
00:15:11,539 --> 00:15:13,539
很討厭中國
410
00:15:13,539 --> 00:15:15,539
你只要講中國的東西
411
00:15:15,539 --> 00:15:17,539
你不是講壞的大家會噓你
412
00:15:17,539 --> 00:15:19,539
我也不是要幫中共說話
413
00:15:19,539 --> 00:15:21,539
但是我就分享一下
414
00:15:21,539 --> 00:15:23,539
我自己認識的
415
00:15:23,539 --> 00:15:25,539
在中國工作的朋友
416
00:15:25,539 --> 00:15:27,539
他們講的說法
417
00:15:27,539 --> 00:15:29,539
比如說其中一位是說
418
00:15:29,539 --> 00:15:31,539
他們的工廠預計
419
00:15:31,539 --> 00:15:33,539
3月15號才可以開工
420
00:15:33,539 --> 00:15:35,539
很多人講說
421
00:15:35,539 --> 00:15:37,539
中共人民不值錢叫你回去上班
422
00:15:37,539 --> 00:15:39,539
大部分看到的
423
00:15:39,539 --> 00:15:41,539
網路討論跟新聞是這樣說
424
00:15:41,539 --> 00:15:43,539
不過我自己朋友的例子
425
00:15:43,539 --> 00:15:45,539
他就還在台灣
426
00:15:45,539 --> 00:15:47,539
因為大的廠
427
00:15:47,539 --> 00:15:49,539
國際大廠可能沒有辦法
428
00:15:49,539 --> 00:15:51,539
養的人太多了一定要你回去
429
00:15:51,539 --> 00:15:53,539
所以他們就用很嚴格的方法
430
00:15:53,539 --> 00:15:55,539
盡可能的去
431
00:15:55,539 --> 00:15:57,539
減少疫情造成的破壞
432
00:15:57,539 --> 00:15:59,539
但是要你們回去上班
433
00:15:59,539 --> 00:16:01,539
但是小廠的做法
434
00:16:01,539 --> 00:16:03,539
他們就完全不一樣
435
00:16:03,539 --> 00:16:05,539
他反而不讓你回來
436
00:16:05,539 --> 00:16:07,539
你就是繼續放假
437
00:16:07,539 --> 00:16:09,539
3月15號可不可以開工
438
00:16:09,539 --> 00:16:11,539
也還不知道
439
00:16:11,539 --> 00:16:13,539
到目前為止都還不知道
440
00:16:13,539 --> 00:16:15,539
所以這一波在中國工作的朋友
441
00:16:15,539 --> 00:16:17,539
他們就說
442
00:16:17,539 --> 00:16:19,539
可能會倒蠻多廠的
443
00:16:19,539 --> 00:16:21,539
因為真的撐不下去
444
00:16:21,539 --> 00:16:23,539
你不要講大公司
445
00:16:23,539 --> 00:16:25,539
甚至講一般的老百姓沒有存款的
446
00:16:25,539 --> 00:16:27,539
你現在在家裡放無薪假
447
00:16:27,539 --> 00:16:29,539
你要怎麼付你的車貸
448
00:16:29,539 --> 00:16:31,539
你要怎麼付你的房貸
449
00:16:31,539 --> 00:16:33,539
你要怎麼去消費
450
00:16:33,539 --> 00:16:35,539
很多人是沒有存款的
451
00:16:35,539 --> 00:16:37,539
本來大家說2020是5G年年
452
00:16:37,539 --> 00:16:39,539
會有大量的手機的需求
453
00:16:39,539 --> 00:16:41,539
或是說
454
00:16:41,539 --> 00:16:43,539
電動車的需求
455
00:16:43,539 --> 00:16:45,539
車市可能會重新的反彈
456
00:16:45,539 --> 00:16:47,539
但現在看起來
457
00:16:47,539 --> 00:16:49,539
因為肺炎的關係
458
00:16:49,539 --> 00:16:51,539
除了中國之外
459
00:16:51,539 --> 00:16:53,539
也在全世界造成影響
460
00:16:53,539 --> 00:16:55,539
放無薪假的也很多
461
00:16:55,539 --> 00:16:57,539
像我以前飛行員同事
462
00:16:57,539 --> 00:16:59,539
幹機師的朋友就分享
463
00:16:59,539 --> 00:17:01,539
他們現在
464
00:17:01,539 --> 00:17:03,539
班表排出來
465
00:17:03,539 --> 00:17:05,539
很多人放假是放到20幾天
466
00:17:05,539 --> 00:17:07,539
月飛時可能有些人只飛個位數
467
00:17:07,539 --> 00:17:09,539
就真的沒有客人可以飛了
468
00:17:09,539 --> 00:17:11,539
很多人因為這樣子
469
00:17:11,539 --> 00:17:13,539
沒有辦法拿到薪水
470
00:17:13,539 --> 00:17:15,539
是不是就可能
471
00:17:15,539 --> 00:17:17,539
會造成消費的緊縮
472
00:17:17,539 --> 00:17:19,539
這個是我們後續要比較注意的
473
00:17:19,539 --> 00:17:21,539
就是本來第一波
474
00:17:21,539 --> 00:17:23,539
只有中國生病的時候
475
00:17:23,539 --> 00:17:25,539
大家是看會不會有轉單的效應
476
00:17:25,539 --> 00:17:27,539
到現在全球都這樣之後
477
00:17:31,539 --> 00:17:33,539
已經比較少人
478
00:17:33,539 --> 00:17:35,539
在聚焦於轉單了
479
00:17:35,539 --> 00:17:37,539
可能開始要注意消費緊縮
480
00:17:37,539 --> 00:17:39,539
可能會不會造成後續的影響
481
00:17:39,539 --> 00:17:41,539
這個美股跟台股
482
00:17:41,539 --> 00:17:43,539
在現在的狀況
483
00:17:43,539 --> 00:17:45,539
到底要怎麼操作比較好
484
00:17:45,539 --> 00:17:47,539
其實如果說你是
485
00:17:47,539 --> 00:17:49,539
資產配置
486
00:17:49,539 --> 00:17:51,539
或是所謂的
487
00:17:51,539 --> 00:17:53,539
被動投資的人
488
00:17:53,539 --> 00:17:55,539
你是不用管每天的漲漲跌跌
489
00:17:55,539 --> 00:17:57,539
反正指數
490
00:17:57,539 --> 00:17:59,539
終究是往上走的
491
00:17:59,539 --> 00:18:01,539
隨著人類的經濟發展
492
00:18:01,539 --> 00:18:03,539
終究是往上走的
493
00:18:03,539 --> 00:18:05,539
按月買金
494
00:18:05,539 --> 00:18:07,539
或是按季買金
495
00:18:07,539 --> 00:18:09,539
去平均你的成本
496
00:18:09,539 --> 00:18:11,539
平滑化
497
00:18:11,539 --> 00:18:13,539
你追求的是市場的報酬
498
00:18:13,539 --> 00:18:15,539
對這些人來說是沒有關係的
499
00:18:15,539 --> 00:18:17,539
但對於比較主動投資的人
500
00:18:17,539 --> 00:18:19,539
現在這個時間
501
00:18:19,539 --> 00:18:21,539
是不是一個進場的好機會
502
00:18:21,539 --> 00:18:23,539
我認為就是
503
00:18:23,539 --> 00:18:25,539
有好幾種說法
504
00:18:25,539 --> 00:18:27,539
我自己歸納出來的
505
00:18:27,539 --> 00:18:29,539
說法是兩種
506
00:18:29,539 --> 00:18:31,539
一種是肺炎
507
00:18:31,539 --> 00:18:33,539
會嚴重的打擊全球的經濟
508
00:18:33,539 --> 00:18:35,539
會造成大型的投資機構
509
00:18:35,539 --> 00:18:37,539
或是銀行倒閉
510
00:18:37,539 --> 00:18:39,539
就跟之前發生的金融危機一樣
511
00:18:39,539 --> 00:18:41,539
出現流動性的風險
512
00:18:41,539 --> 00:18:43,539
讓整個股市崩盤
513
00:18:43,539 --> 00:18:45,539
可能一蹶不振
514
00:18:45,539 --> 00:18:47,539
個幾年
515
00:18:47,539 --> 00:18:49,539
這是最慘的狀況
516
00:18:49,539 --> 00:18:51,539
比較好的狀況就是肺炎會受到控制
517
00:18:51,539 --> 00:18:53,539
避險的資金最後面就會
518
00:18:53,539 --> 00:18:55,539
回去股市
519
00:18:55,539 --> 00:18:57,539
資金也會離開美元商品
520
00:18:57,539 --> 00:18:59,539
就開始去往全球去跑
521
00:18:59,539 --> 00:19:01,539
這是比較好的狀況
522
00:19:01,539 --> 00:19:03,539
但是不管如何
523
00:19:03,539 --> 00:19:05,539
這一波肺炎
524
00:19:05,539 --> 00:19:07,539
已經至少確定會
525
00:19:07,539 --> 00:19:09,539
對於電子產品的需求
526
00:19:09,539 --> 00:19:11,539
一定會造成一定程度的傷害
527
00:19:11,539 --> 00:19:13,539
所以這是要注意的
528
00:19:13,539 --> 00:19:15,539
目前很多的台商
529
00:19:15,539 --> 00:19:17,539
大家可能會比較開始去注意
530
00:19:17,539 --> 00:19:19,539
在中國有設廠的台商
531
00:19:19,539 --> 00:19:21,539
是不是大家要去閃
532
00:19:21,539 --> 00:19:23,539
這點是要注意
533
00:19:23,539 --> 00:19:25,539
因為現在雖然開始復工了
534
00:19:25,539 --> 00:19:27,539
但是並不代表
535
00:19:27,539 --> 00:19:29,539
復工之後就不會出狀況
536
00:19:29,539 --> 00:19:31,539
雖然這樣講可能不得人疼
537
00:19:31,539 --> 00:19:33,539
但是現在的台商
538
00:19:33,539 --> 00:19:35,539
他們都會開始去做
539
00:19:35,539 --> 00:19:37,539
如果說復工之後
540
00:19:37,539 --> 00:19:39,539
產線上有一個人生病
541
00:19:39,539 --> 00:19:41,539
那這個產線就停下來
542
00:19:41,539 --> 00:19:43,539
當這種新聞傳回股市
543
00:19:43,539 --> 00:19:45,539
我認為當天吃一根5%
544
00:19:45,539 --> 00:19:47,539
甚至跌停
545
00:19:47,539 --> 00:19:49,539
也不是太意外的事情
546
00:19:49,539 --> 00:19:51,539
所以只要在中國有廠的
547
00:19:51,539 --> 00:19:53,539
都還是有這樣的風險
548
00:19:53,539 --> 00:19:55,539
特別是越靠近湖北省的
549
00:19:55,539 --> 00:19:57,539
甚至在湖北省裡面
550
00:19:57,539 --> 00:19:59,539
武漢市的
551
00:19:59,539 --> 00:20:01,539
就會有這樣的風險
552
00:20:01,539 --> 00:20:03,539
所以大家要注意
553
00:20:03,539 --> 00:20:05,539
但是其他在台灣設廠的
554
00:20:05,539 --> 00:20:07,539
這樣湖北就沒事
555
00:20:07,539 --> 00:20:09,539
也不一定
556
00:20:09,539 --> 00:20:11,539
因為剛剛前面講的消費警說
557
00:20:11,539 --> 00:20:13,539
或者是說沒有料
558
00:20:13,539 --> 00:20:15,539
你叫不到料
559
00:20:15,539 --> 00:20:17,539
那還是會受影響
560
00:20:17,539 --> 00:20:19,539
所以在操作上
561
00:20:19,539 --> 00:20:21,539
我覺得現在這樣的狀況
562
00:20:21,539 --> 00:20:23,539
已經有點像是瞎子摸象
563
00:20:23,539 --> 00:20:25,539
你很難去知道事情的全貌
564
00:20:25,539 --> 00:20:27,539
所以技術分析
565
00:20:27,539 --> 00:20:29,539
還是有一點用處的
566
00:20:29,539 --> 00:20:31,539
也就是說既然
567
00:20:31,539 --> 00:20:33,539
你沒有辦法知道
568
00:20:33,539 --> 00:20:35,539
你的部位該怎麼處理
569
00:20:35,539 --> 00:20:37,539
那你不如就看市場
570
00:20:37,539 --> 00:20:39,539
的風向來決定你要怎麼處理
571
00:20:39,539 --> 00:20:41,539
最簡單的做法
572
00:20:41,539 --> 00:20:43,539
就是看你的股市是不是走入了
573
00:20:43,539 --> 00:20:45,539
空頭排列
574
00:20:45,539 --> 00:20:47,539
也就是說你的
575
00:20:47,539 --> 00:20:49,539
比如說周均線、月均線
576
00:20:49,539 --> 00:20:51,539
季均線的排列
577
00:20:51,539 --> 00:20:53,539
是不是已經變成是說
578
00:20:53,539 --> 00:20:55,539
周均線在最下面、月均線在上
579
00:20:55,539 --> 00:20:57,539
季均線在最上面
580
00:20:57,539 --> 00:20:59,539
那就是完全的進入空頭了
581
00:20:59,539 --> 00:21:01,539
所以要做一個V型的反轉
582
00:21:01,539 --> 00:21:03,539
走回多頭
583
00:21:03,539 --> 00:21:05,539
其實不是一個太容易的事情
584
00:21:05,539 --> 00:21:07,539
所以如果今天你的
585
00:21:07,539 --> 00:21:09,539
你的部位已經遇到這樣的狀況的話
586
00:21:09,539 --> 00:21:11,539
那或許就可以考慮說
587
00:21:11,539 --> 00:21:13,539
是不是
588
00:21:13,539 --> 00:21:15,539
除非這個資金是完全沒有用的
589
00:21:15,539 --> 00:21:17,539
但你還是很相信說
590
00:21:17,539 --> 00:21:19,539
這個疫情過去會很好
591
00:21:19,539 --> 00:21:21,539
那當然你就是繼續的持有
592
00:21:21,539 --> 00:21:23,539
但如果說你是有融資的
593
00:21:23,539 --> 00:21:25,539
或者說你是比較短線的
594
00:21:25,539 --> 00:21:27,539
那如果你看到走勢不對的時候
595
00:21:27,539 --> 00:21:29,539
這時候你其實也不用太
596
00:21:29,539 --> 00:21:31,539
太在意新聞到底寫了什麼
597
00:21:31,539 --> 00:21:33,539
因為市場已經把答案告訴你了
598
00:21:35,539 --> 00:21:37,539
所以該跑的
599
00:21:37,539 --> 00:21:39,539
還是要跑啦
600
00:21:39,539 --> 00:21:41,539
那很多人其實現在還是很看好說
601
00:21:41,539 --> 00:21:43,539
因為川普他把
602
00:21:43,539 --> 00:21:45,539
美股的漲勢當成政績
603
00:21:45,539 --> 00:21:47,539
其實也不是只有川普啦
604
00:21:47,539 --> 00:21:49,539
你知道我們的政府也是在做一樣的事情
605
00:21:49,539 --> 00:21:51,539
那只是因為川普他現在要選舉了
606
00:21:51,539 --> 00:21:53,539
所以很多人看好說
607
00:21:53,539 --> 00:21:55,539
川普選舉這個股市會
608
00:21:55,539 --> 00:21:57,539
政策做多
609
00:21:57,539 --> 00:21:59,539
你也知道他很常去
610
00:21:59,539 --> 00:22:01,539
施壓聯準會降息
611
00:22:01,539 --> 00:22:03,539
雖然說現在目前的
612
00:22:03,539 --> 00:22:05,539
他一直想說美國的經濟是很好很好
613
00:22:05,539 --> 00:22:07,539
可是還是不停
614
00:22:07,539 --> 00:22:09,539
瘋狂的在降息
615
00:22:09,539 --> 00:22:11,539
不停的瘋狂的在印鈔票
616
00:22:11,539 --> 00:22:13,539
所以說川普
617
00:22:13,539 --> 00:22:15,539
會不會政策做多
618
00:22:15,539 --> 00:22:17,539
讓美股再創新高
619
00:22:17,539 --> 00:22:19,539
現在很多人的想法
620
00:22:19,539 --> 00:22:21,539
其實是認為說會的
621
00:22:21,539 --> 00:22:23,539
也就是說我們現在跌得這麼重
622
00:22:23,539 --> 00:22:25,539
他們甚至覺得說你跌越重越好
623
00:22:25,539 --> 00:22:27,539
因為最後面往上彈的力量就越大
624
00:22:27,539 --> 00:22:29,539
並且
625
00:22:29,539 --> 00:22:31,539
相信在川普選舉的時候
626
00:22:31,539 --> 00:22:33,539
美國會破三萬點
627
00:22:33,539 --> 00:22:35,539
繼續創新高
628
00:22:35,539 --> 00:22:37,539
這是一種說法
629
00:22:37,539 --> 00:22:39,539
那我是認為說
630
00:22:39,539 --> 00:22:41,539
在股市裡面我們不要有太多的
631
00:22:41,539 --> 00:22:43,539
預測
632
00:22:43,539 --> 00:22:45,539
因為其實預測不準
633
00:22:45,539 --> 00:22:47,539
雖然說歷史很常會一直在發生
634
00:22:47,539 --> 00:22:49,539
但是在股市裡面
635
00:22:49,539 --> 00:22:51,539
你很常見到的是
636
00:22:51,539 --> 00:22:53,539
例子不會用完全一樣的方式發生
637
00:22:53,539 --> 00:22:55,539
所以當你怎麼預期它
638
00:22:55,539 --> 00:22:57,539
它可能就不會照你的方式走
639
00:22:57,539 --> 00:22:59,539
當目前是最恐慌的時候
640
00:22:59,539 --> 00:23:01,539
股市是大反彈的
641
00:23:01,539 --> 00:23:03,539
當目前大家覺得說
642
00:23:03,539 --> 00:23:05,539
好像還好的時候股市開始大跌
643
00:23:05,539 --> 00:23:07,539
很多時候都是這樣子的狀況
644
00:23:07,539 --> 00:23:09,539
所以不要有太多的想像
645
00:23:09,539 --> 00:23:11,539
最好還是見機行事
646
00:23:11,539 --> 00:23:13,539
如果說
647
00:23:13,539 --> 00:23:15,539
最後面市場的走法
648
00:23:15,539 --> 00:23:17,539
跟你的劇本不太一樣的話
649
00:23:17,539 --> 00:23:19,539
那最好就先收手
650
00:23:21,539 --> 00:23:23,539
最簡單的做法就是不要借錢
651
00:23:23,539 --> 00:23:25,539
不要借錢炒股
652
00:23:25,539 --> 00:23:27,539
不要把太多的
653
00:23:27,539 --> 00:23:29,539
資金一次投入
654
00:23:29,539 --> 00:23:31,539
這是比較保險的做法
655
00:23:31,539 --> 00:23:33,539
那如果還有什麼樣的想法
656
00:23:33,539 --> 00:23:35,539
或是意見歡迎在留言
657
00:23:35,539 --> 00:23:37,539
或是私訊跟我說
658
00:23:37,539 --> 00:23:39,539
那我們就在下一期的節目繼續跟大家討論
659
00:23:39,539 --> 00:23:41,539
就這樣啦,掰