AI chip leader Nvidia is reportedly acquiring open-source AI model platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, which would become one of the largest acquisitions in its history if completed. This deal is not just about the financial figures but a key move in Nvidia's AI software and ecosystem strategy. Deal Background According to media reports, Nvidia has in principle agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, a significant premium over the $4.5 billion valuation from the 2023 Series D round. Notably, Nvidia participated in Hugging Face's funding back in 2023 with an investment of $235 million and is now taking the whole thing. It is reported that Hugging Face rejected a $500 million investment proposal from Nvidia last year at a $7 billion valuation, but is now selling at nearly double that price, showing the strategic value of open-source AI platforms has surged dramatically in just one year. Why Hugging Face? Hugging Face is known as the "GitHub of the AI world," serving as the core hub for developers worldwide to share, test, and deploy open-source large language models and datasets. For Nvidia, acquiring Hugging Face means gaining control of the "distribution network" for open-source AI models, further strengthening its vertical integration advantage from chips and cloud to the model ecosystem. Against the backdrop of closed-source model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic developing their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, this move aims to reinforce Nvidia's influence over the open-source ecosystem and avoid marginalization. Market Impact and Risks If the deal completes, Nvidia would transform from a pickaxe-selling chip supplier into an AI platform giant controlling models, tools, and communities. However, this could also trigger regulatory scrutiny, especially concerns from the open-source community about "platform monopolization." Neither party has made an official announcement yet, and the deal could still fall through due to regulatory or negotiation variables. Regardless, the transaction has sent a clear signal: in the next phase of the AI war, ecosystem control is more important than raw chip performance alone. For investors, Nvidia's acquisition strategy shows it is no longer content with its hardware leader status but is actively expanding into software and application layers, with its long-term growth narrative shifting from AI chips to AI infrastructure.

Nvidia Acquires Hugging Face: A Key Step in Securing the AI Ecosystem

On September 15, the U.S. Senate’s procedural vote (cloture vote) on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold and did not proceed to formal debate. The House version of the bill had already passed in the summer of 2025; this Senate setback is widely viewed as eliminating any chance of advancement in 2026. Following the news, BTC quickly broke below $75,000, with total liquidations across the network reaching approximately $771 million within 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for about $569 million—indicating a clear deleveraging move. What is Exchange Netflow? Exchange Netflow is one of the most fundamental on-chain metrics, calculated as “total BTC flowing into exchanges” minus “total BTC flowing out of exchanges.” A positive value indicates more BTC is being deposited into exchanges, generally interpreted as increased potential selling pressure; a negative value (shown in red) indicates net outflows, typically interpreted as coins moving into self-custody or long-term holding, with lower short-term selling intent. CryptoQuant separates exchanges into Spot and Derivative categories for separate tracking. This distinction is critical—net flows between the two categories do not always move in sync, and that divergence is exactly what makes this event noteworthy. Derivatives Exchanges: Margin and Liquidation Signals <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/406c19ad-f2d5-4be7-9349-b616b88f642f.avif" />Observing derivatives exchange netflow on the day of the CLARITY Act vote failure, the single-day net inflow expanded sharply, standing out as the most prominent reading in the past month. This anomaly should not be simply read as “large-scale spot selling in the derivatives market.” A more reasonable explanation lies in the margin mechanism: when a sharp price drop triggers cascading liquidations, leveraged traders rush to deposit BTC to top up margin and avoid being liquidated; at the same time, collateral seized from forced long liquidations is credited to exchange wallets. These two forces combined cause derivatives exchange netflow to swing sharply positive—timing that aligns exactly with the $771 million in liquidations (with longs dominating). Spot Exchanges: No Panic Inflows <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/2e852cde-8824-4845-b5e5-7380942b5281.avif" />In the same time window, spot exchange netflow turned negative (outflows). If the decline had been driven by panic selling from spot holders, we would expect spot exchange net inflows to increase (coins deposited for sale). Instead, the data moved in the opposite direction—BTC continued to leave spot exchanges. The size of these outflows is comparable to other notable outflow periods recently, indicating that spot holdings kept moving during the drop, but the direction was withdrawals rather than deposits for selling. Conclusion: Deleveraging Was the Main Driver, Not Spot Panic Selling Viewed together, the signal structure of this decline is clear: the impact originated primarily from forced liquidations and margin calls in the derivatives market. Spot exchanges did not see a simultaneous surge in selling-related inflows, and the coin structure remained relatively stable. This drop was driven by deleveraging, not spot panic selling pressure. This distinction has practical implications for judging the strength of any subsequent rebound. If spot continues to show net outflows and the derivatives inflow spike proves to be a one-time liquidation event, the decline is more likely a short-term deleveraging move rather than the start of a trend reversal. However, if spot also shifts to sustained net inflows in the coming days, it would be necessary to reassess whether spot-side selling pressure is emerging. Looking at netflow from only one exchange category can easily lead to misjudgment; separating spot and derivatives data reveals the full story of coin movements.

CLARITY Act Vote Fails, Divergence in Coin Flows Between Derivatives and Spot Exchanges

Summary: This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund inflows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks.-------(Main Text)Bitcoin surged from 63K to 77K last week, pulled back briefly, then broke through again in the past two days to stand above 79K, setting a new high for this rebound. As discussed earlier, this rally began as a short squeeze—short positions were heavily forced to close—but funding rates did not rise accordingly at the time, and most chips remained on exchanges. It resembled a typical short squeeze rebound rather than an established trend. However, things changed. Real buying started entering around 8/20. What happened from 8/20 until now? Below are the on-chain observations so far. 📅 After 8/20: Real Spot Buying Enters After the short squeeze, signals clearly strengthened. The Bitcoin ETF Netflow chart shows several days with significantly larger single-day net inflows, a scale rarely seen recently, indicating institutional buying has clearly warmed up. At the same time, Total Exchange Outflow (30-day average) for both spot and derivatives exchanges began climbing from 8/18, rising to a high around 8/20, moving in sync with the price rally from 63K to 73K. This period indeed saw large amounts of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges, not merely leveraged positioning. This is the clearest dividing line between judging a "short squeeze" versus "real buying." However, note that after the weekend, the average outflow for both exchange types retreated from their highs—spot exchanges declined from near their peak, and derivatives exchanges weakened in tandem, even as prices continued to edge higher. Withdrawal momentum has slowed in recent days, suggesting a slight increase in selling pressure or profit-taking. This will be revisited in the observation list below. One more piece of supporting evidence: The URPD (supply distribution) chart shows a clear supply cluster in the $76-78K range, sitting just below the current spot price of $78,564 and still in profit. This cluster formed rapidly only after the 20th. It indicates that a batch of chips was indeed acquired in this price zone and remains on-chain, rather than being purely internal exchange leverage activity. This aligns with the earlier observations of amplified ETF net inflows and rising exchange withdrawals, further supporting the judgment that "real buying has entered this rally." 📒 Profit-Taking Test: Still Ongoing As the price retook the short-term holder cost basis (around 67K) and the realized cost of newly entered whales (around 68.9-70K), this previously underwater supply turned into profit-taking—on 8/20 alone, roughly $614 million was realized, a record high. This was a critical demand test: if new buying can absorb this selling pressure and price holds the cost zone, it signals a true structural shift to strength. Although the price has reclaimed the previous high (around 79.3K), it has spent very little time above this level and volume has not expanded meaningfully to accompany it. It resembles a "low-volume rally," insufficient to conclude that the profit-taking test has passed. 👀 What to Watch Now With the price breaking above the prior high, the original whale cost zone (67-70K) has shifted from a "resistance test line" to a "key support observation area" on pullbacks. Going forward, continue tracking: 1️⃣ Whether withdrawal momentum from spot and derivatives exchanges can rebound—the post-weekend averages for both have retreated from highs; if they continue weakening, it indicates cooling buying and withdrawal willingness2️⃣ Whether exchange reserves will turn back to outflows—before this rebound, reserves had only just broken a two-year downtrend and reclaimed the 200-day moving average; a return to outflows would reaffirm the long-term supply contraction narrative3️⃣ Whether price can hold the 67-70K cost zone and the newly formed 76-78K supply cluster on pullbacks; a break below could revive earlier short-squeeze concerns.(Data source: Crypto Mommy @ CryptoQuant) ✏️ One-Sentence Summary This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund flows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks. ⚠️ The above is on-chain data observation, not investment advice.

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

Debasement Trade is one of the hottest macro narratives from late August to now. Its core logic is: when investors believe the dollar's purchasing power will continue to erode due to "high debt + high deficits + policy intervention in the bond market", funds will shift to scarce assets (gold, Bitcoin, some crypto assets) as a hedge. <h2>What is Debasement Trade?</h2> <ul><li>Definition: Investors expect fiat currencies (especially the USD) to lose long-term purchasing power, so they reduce holdings in cash and sovereign debt while increasing exposure to "scarce, inflation-resistant, non-sovereign" assets such as gold and Bitcoin.</li><li>Trigger conditions: Expanding fiscal deficits, rising government debt, central banks or treasuries intervening in bond markets to "suppress long-end yields" (e.g., expanding long-term Treasury buybacks), and rising inflation expectations.</li></ul> <h2>Why is it heating up again now? Three catalysts</h2> U.S. federal debt breaks through $40 trillion <ul><li>On 8/18, U.S. Treasury debt officially surpassed $40 trillion, reaching approximately $40.1 trillion by 8/25; the CBO projects a FY2026 deficit of about $1.9 trillion (roughly 6% of GDP), with interest payments and mandatory spending continuing to push deficits higher.</li><li>High debt + high deficits = markets worry that future debt will only be diluted through "inflation + monetization", which is exactly the core narrative of Debasement Trade.</li></ul> <h2>Treasury expands long-term Treasury buybacks, intervening in the yield curve</h2> <ul><li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks aimed at lowering long-end yields; markets interpreted this as a signal of "fiscal dominance", reinforcing expectations of long-term USD depreciation.</li><li>Result: The dollar weakened while gold and Bitcoin strengthened in tandem; Bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000 and gold hit a three-month high in mid-to-late August.</li></ul> <h2>Geopolitical risks and oil prices lift inflation expectations</h2> <ul><li>Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Brent crude returning to $90/barrel have markets concerned that inflation will remain sticky, making it harder for the Fed to ease policy and possibly even prompting rate hikes, further reinforcing the incentive to "hold physical/scarce assets".</li></ul> <h2>Market evidence: Bitcoin-gold correlation surges</h2> <ul><li>Grayscale research shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold rising from near 0% at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from 60%+ to around 33%, indicating Bitcoin is shifting from "tech-stock beta" toward "gold-style hedging".</li><li>BlackRock Digital Assets head Mitchnick also noted that debt and deficit concerns are driving capital toward Bitcoin and gold, strengthening Bitcoin's macro allocation case.</li><li>Bernstein directly lists Debasement Trade as one of Bitcoin's main medium- to long-term upside drivers, projecting a mid-2027 target of $150,000 and $300,000 by 2029.</li></ul> <h2>But Debasement Trade is not a one-way street: Fed hawks are the biggest headwind</h2> <ul><li>Waller's hawkish Jackson Hole speech (emphasizing inflation not yet under control and more work to do) caused markets to reprice September rate-hike odds to around 60%, strengthening the dollar and short-end yields while gold and Bitcoin pulled back in tandem.</li><li>Goldman Sachs scenario analysis indicates that if the Fed does hike, gold could fall back to $4,400, also suppressing short-term momentum for the "gold-Bitcoin Debasement Trade".</li><li>In other words, Debasement Trade is a "long-term structural narrative", but the short term remains dominated by "interest rates and the dollar"; when markets believe the Fed will fight inflation with rate hikes, valuations of scarce assets will first come under pressure.</li></ul> <h2>Implications for Bitcoin: Repricing from "risk asset" to "macro hedge"</h2> <ul><li>If Debasement Trade continues to unfold, Bitcoin will increasingly be viewed as "digital gold" rather than "tech-stock beta", with capital sources expanding from crypto speculators to macro funds and sovereign/institutional allocators.</li><li>Grayscale even highlighted Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash as potential beneficiaries due to their scarcity, decentralization, and censorship resistance, aligning with the need for "non-sovereign value storage".</li><li>Investors should still note: the 90-day correlation is a short-term indicator; if Fed hawkishness persists and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin may still pull back in tandem with gold rather than rising unilaterally.</li></ul> <h2>What should investors watch?</h2> <ul><li>Fiscal side: Whether U.S. Treasury debt continues to climb, whether Treasury buyback policy expands, and whether CBO deficit forecasts are revised upward.</li><li>Monetary side: The Fed's stance on inflation and rate hikes, the September FOMC rate decision, the DXY dollar index, and the 10-year real yield.</li><li>Asset side: Whether Bitcoin-gold correlation remains elevated, whether gold holds key support (e.g., $4,410–$4,320), and whether Bitcoin ETF flows remain net positive.</li></ul> Overall, Debasement Trade provides Bitcoin with a "macro hedge" medium- to long-term narrative, but short-term price action still hinges on the Fed-dollar tug-of-war: if markets believe "the debt problem can ultimately only be solved through inflation", demand for Bitcoin and gold allocations will keep rising. If the Fed insists on combating inflation with rate hikes, scarce assets will first undergo a valuation correction before waiting for the next liquidity inflection point.

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

**** Content is a supplement to today's video. Charts please refer to today's Youtube video****<iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/bwwM8w5qlTY"></iframe> Bitcoin pulled back slightly earlier, down about 0.5% from the previous day, a normal digestion after the sharp gains of the past few days. Ethereum around $2,750, SOL around $118.5, BNB around $788, HYPE around $97, SUI around $1.02, with most major coins showing range-bound consolidation. Market sentiment indicators cooled in tandem: the Fear &amp; Greed Index today stands at 71. Still in the “Greed” zone, down noticeably from the previous day’s 78 “Extreme Greed.” A moderate cooling from the overheated zone usually helps the trend remain healthier and more sustainable. <h2> </h2><h2>Institutional Buying and Short Covering Continue</h2> According to public market data, corporate Bitcoin treasury strategies continue to add: Strategy purchased 950 Bitcoin (about $76 million) on September 21, while Strive bought 1,355 coins (about $107.7 million) the same day, for a combined total exceeding 2,200 coins. At the same time, short positions continue to be liquidated; on September 21 alone, roughly $648 million in Bitcoin short positions were forcibly closed, pushing Bitcoin futures open interest to $61.6 billion.

**** 內文為今日影片補充。圖表請參考本日Youtube影片****<iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/bwwM8w5qlTY"></iframe> 比特幣稍早小幅回落，較前一日小幅拉回約 0.5%，屬於前幾天大漲之後的正常消化。以太幣約在 2750 美元，SOL 約 118.5 美元，BNB 約 788 美元，HYPE 約 97 美元，SUI 約 1.02 美元，整體主流幣多呈現區間整理。 市場情緒指標同步降溫：恐懼貪婪指數今日為 71。仍然在“貪婪”區間，較前一日的 78「極度貪婪」明顯回落。情緒從過熱區間適度降溫，通常有助於行情走得更健康、更久。 <h2> </h2><h2>機構買盤與空頭回補持續</h2> 根據市場公開資訊，企業比特幣財庫策略仍在加碼：Strategy 於 9 月 21 日買入 950 顆比特幣(約 7600 萬美元)，Strive 同日買入 1355 顆(約 1.077 億美元)，兩者合計超過 2200 顆。與此同時，空頭部位持續被清算，9 月 21 日單日就有約 6.48 億美元的比特幣空頭倉位遭強制平倉，比特幣期貨未平倉量升至 616 億美元。 </p

Dormant Coins Awaken to New High Since August, Yet Exchanges See Simultaneous Net Outflow of 19,000 Coins

Institutional Buying and Short Covering Continue

Другие произведения автора.

Nvidia Acquires Hugging Face: A Key Step in Securing the AI Ecosystem

CLARITY Act Vote Fails, Divergence in Coin Flows Between Derivatives and Spot Exchanges

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

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Dormant Coins Awaken to New High Since August, Yet Exchanges See Simultaneous Net Outflow of 19,000 Coins

Institutional Buying and Short Covering Continue

Другие произведения автора.

Nvidia Acquires Hugging Face: A Key Step in Securing the AI Ecosystem

CLARITY Act Vote Fails, Divergence in Coin Flows Between Derivatives and Spot Exchanges

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

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