Since July 2026, Bitcoin's Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR, Stablecoin Supply Ratio) has risen at a pace exceeding the BTC price itself. This means that the expansion of stablecoin liquidity has failed to keep up with the growth of Bitcoin's market capitalization. In other words, the potential buy-side "dry firewood" relative to BTC is gradually tightening. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/db915430-9afc-4bdf-8b21-057164a91fb8.avif" />This divergence usually suggests that market demand is facing more constraints: ♦️Change in upward momentum: Subsequent rallies may rely less on external new stablecoin funds rotating in, and more on the positioning of existing market chips. ♦️Increased pullback risk: If SSR continues to climb while prices stagnate, once a pullback occurs, the corrective force may be more intense. It is worth noting that an SSR increase faster than the coin price is a warning sign, indicating bottlenecks on the demand side, but it does not equate to necessarily being bearish. For investors, this means the market lacks the strong incremental stablecoin liquidity support seen in the early cycle, so the sustainability of rallies weakens, and the damage from price pullbacks is relatively greater. Trading Core and Risk Management: Continuously monitor trends: Watch whether SSR can stabilize or decline afterward (indicating stablecoin liquidity catching up again). Be vigilant about liquidity tightening: If SSR continues to rise, it represents an environment of capital contraction still persisting, and should serve as an important reference indicator for adjusting positions and managing risks. --------------⚠️This article only represents the blogger's personal technical research insights and sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries high risks; please be sure to evaluate independently and bear your own profits and losses.

Bitcoin Buy-side Funds Sound the Alarm! #BTC

Setting aside the public opinion sparked by ARC’s Indian development team in the community and the sharp drop in meme coins and ecosystem tokens, the ACR chain is still worth introducing. ## TL;DR Arc mainnet officially launched on September 16. It positions itself as the “economic operating system” for the internet: using USDC as native gas, sub-second finality, EVM compatible, and offering an optional compliance privacy layer. The genesis validator list reads like a global financial infrastructure directory (BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Visa, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, SBI, Galaxy). On launch day, the ecosystem already featured a star-studded lineup, including DeFi partners (Aave, Uniswap, etc.), wallets (MetaMask), and exchanges (Robinhood). ## Technical Positioning: Designed for Institutions, Not Crypto-Native Users Arc’s three core design choices target traditional financial institutions rather than on-chain speculators. <ol><li>Native Gas: Fees are denominated in USD and paid in USDC, making costs predictable and bookable without exposure to native token volatility;</li><li>Consensus: Malachite (Informal Systems team, derived from Tendermint) delivers sub-second deterministic finality, eliminating the need to wait for 6 confirmations—suitable for POS acquiring, spot FX, and broker clearing;</li><li>Execution Layer: Reth, fully EVM compatible + optional privacy (EVM precompile, preserving audit disclosure channels). Retains the Solidity toolchain; privacy is placed on the compliance side.</li></ol> It also includes a built-in FX engine. Since launch, the testnet has processed approximately 2.441 billion transactions. ## Ecosystem: Fully Loaded at Launch Circle did not let the mainnet run empty: on launch day there were already 100+ applications, 100+ institutions, and ecosystem builders. <ul><li>DeFi: Aave, Uniswap, Curve, Morpho, Aerodrome, Euler, Fluid</li><li>Market Makers: FalconX, Galaxy, GSR, Keyrock, Nonco, XFX</li><li>Payments: Rain, Thunes, Wirex</li><li>Entry Points: MetaMask as default wallet; Binance Wallet as the first to support; KuCoin already enabled direct USDC deposits and withdrawals; OpenSea supported on launch day; Robinhood also announced support for Arc network USDC deposits and withdrawals</li><li>Oracles: Chainlink deployed on launch day (via Chainlink Scale)</li></ul> The significance of this list: Arc’s cold-start risk has essentially been underwritten by capital and distribution channels. ## Token: Minted, But Not Issued The whitepaper discloses a total supply of 10 billion ARC, allocated as Ecosystem Development 60% / Protocol Development &amp; Operations 25% / Long-term Reserve 15%; initial inflation of 2–3% for validator and staking rewards. On the fee mechanism, fees paid in any supported currency are automatically swapped by the protocol into ARC; a portion rewards validators and the rest is permanently burned, designed to offset inflation through burns. Circle previously raised $222 million via ARC token presale (2026/5/11, valuation ~$3 billion), with investors including BlackRock, ICE, Standard Chartered, SC Ventures, ARK Invest, General Catalyst, and IDG. However, at mainnet launch Circle reiterated: genesis minting of 10B does not imply a public token issuance. The Arc project TGE status remains “pre,” with no publicly tradable price. ⚠️ Any token named “ARC” listed on exchanges belongs to other projects or memes—do not buy by mistake. ## Market Reaction: Stocks Fell First CRCL weakened on the day of mainnet launch, indicating the market viewed the ARC launch as a priced-in event and that short-term focus is on “Circle spending to build the chain, but may not receive token dividends.”<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/e08983f5-bfa0-4763-b3e0-f0a9c312fd9a.avif" /> ## Conclusion Arc is not competing with other L1s for DeFi users; it is betting on “after stablecoins become the global payment pipeline, who will serve as the operating system for that pipeline.” Its moat lies in distribution and compliance—none of the validators or ecosystem names are projects that grew via airdrops. Its weaknesses are the centralization discount from a permissioned validator set and reliance on the single entity Circle. Bottom line: At this stage, Arc is an “infrastructure narrative” rather than a “tradable asset.”There is no public token; the only public exposure vehicle is CRCL stock, and the share price has already given a negative response. The three things truly worth tracking: whether actual USDC settlement volume on Arc can ramp up, whether Circle will eventually open ARC for public issuance, and when the validator set will move from permissioned to open. Arc does not want to compete with chains like Solana or Base for retail DeFi users. What Circle wants is this: if the world eventually moves money and makes payments with stablecoins, there will need to be a dedicated chain for that money—and it wants to be that chain. Strengths Arc’s strength lies in “connections,” not technology. Its validators are institutions of the caliber of BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, and NYSE parent ICE. On day one, major DeFi protocols and wallets were already integrated. Other new chains spend two years issuing airdrops to attract users; Arc had users the moment it booted. Weaknesses Arc has two main weaknesses. First, who can become a validator is decided by Circle; not everyone who wants to join can join. Crypto circles will therefore view it as “not decentralized enough,” and the valuation they are willing to assign will be discounted. Second, the entire chain is essentially tied to a single company, Circle; if Circle runs into trouble, Arc runs into trouble. For retail investors: The ARC token has not been publicly issued. Circle genesis-minted 10 billion ARC but explicitly stated “this does not represent a commitment to issue publicly.” Any ARC trading on the market is not the token of this chain. Meanwhile, Circle’s parent company CRCL stock actually fell more than 6.5% to $80.46 on launch day (a classic “good news already priced in” reaction). Watch three things going forward: Is anyone actually using USDC for settlement on Arc, and can volume scale? Will Circle ultimately issue ARC to the market, and if so, how will it be calculated? And when will the validator set shift from “Circle picks participants” to “anyone can join”? These factors will determine whether it is truly a chain or merely one company’s database.

Circle Arc Chain: First-Hand Assessment After Mainnet Launch

Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded significantly since the weekend, with gains of 6.7% and nearly 5% respectively. Market sentiment indicators have warmed in tandem to the "Extreme Greed" zone. More notably, spot ETF fund flow data shows institutional capital making large-scale replenishments on the latest trading day Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of as much as $999 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $381.4 million, Fidelity FBTC contributing $238.8 million, and ARK ARKB contributing $289.1 million. This equates to buying pressure of nearly 12,000 BTC. However, ETF fund inflows are only one piece of the puzzle driving the rally. Key drivers behind this rally: Spot buying turns strong first: Real buying support appears first, followed by shorts being forced to cover.Short squeeze amplifies gains: Single-day Bitcoin short liquidations reached $345 million, acting as an accelerator. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/84e3268e-1316-4b73-a092-2bbc4015d7b8.avif" /> Overhead historical trapped-supply zone is relatively thin: URPD shows low historical transaction density in the $80,000–$85,000 range, meaning limited supply resistance and allowing BTC to cross quickly; it is now entering the next major resistance band: $85,000–$95,000.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f40bb036-52f5-4f44-b9ad-e42136f619b8.avif" />Price outcome: Bitcoin jumped from $81,146 to $86,600, a single-day gain of 6.7%. Behind it lies the triple resonance of “ETF spot demand + short liquidations + thin historical supply.” The next focus will shift higher: To effectively break through the $85K–$95K zone, ETF fund flows must continue to follow through and push prices higher. However, the Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative, signaling a short-term cooling of U.S. spot demand. The market will closely watch U.S. equity trading hours to see whether ETFs can once again deliver strong single-day inflows.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/95819fc8-3bc0-4049-9bc7-e0f86c8c7f2d.avif" />（Data source: Crypto Quant）

Bitcoin Rebounds, ETF Funds See Nearly $1 Billion Inflow

Bitcoin is currently standing above $78,000, with both technical indicators and on-chain data sending the same signal: an attempt to build a bottom is underway, leaning bullish in direction, but it has not yet faced a real test. Technical Analysis: Both 200MAs Have Been Recovered The price has simultaneously moved above the daily 200MA and the weekly 200MA.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/81f670a3-1231-4fcc-837c-d838038111f3.avif" />After breaking below the weekly 200MA in early June this year, the price oscillated around the 200WMA for the next two months until it broke out strongly on August 19. This pattern also appeared in 2019. Since the 200WMA has always been strong support, historically Bitcoin bear markets have consolidated near this zone for up to about 1 year and 3 months, or as short as about 3 weeks. Therefore, repeated fluctuations in this range can be seen as a common signal of the bottom-building phase.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/bcd2a061-a651-45ca-a8d2-59924a32a42b.avif" />However, there is still one hurdle above: the daily 365MA (around $82K). On September 3, the price once surged to $82,293 and touched this line, only to be pushed back near $79,000. Whether the daily 365MA can hold with a close is the key technical resistance to watch closely next. On-Chain Data: STH/LTH Cost Basis Has Not Yet Been Retested Comparing the STH &amp; LTH Realized Price chart, the current price is above the average cost of both short-term and long-term holders.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f0a4e0ef-f246-436c-af70-5bf26ba63653.avif" />Looking at SOPR data: STH-SOPR is hovering just above 1.00 (short-term buyers are roughly breaking even, market sentiment is neutral), while LTH-SOPR continues to sit at levels representing cycle bottoms (below 1). <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/99ac4124-f86c-476e-9250-72a1efce4085.avif" /><img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/d7e86767-8617-41cf-8d75-976a21bb8576.avif" />Unrealized Profit/Loss <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NUPL sits at 0.32</a> (&gt;0 indicates holders are on average in slight profit), and Market Value to Realized Value <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">MVRV sits at 1.4</a> (&gt;1 indicates the market trades at a premium to realized cost), both falling in the optimistic recovery or transition zone. Together these figures point to: sentiment turning positive, but far from overheated. This is a healthy signal, though it also means the bottom support has not yet undergone a real stress test. Don't Ignore: This Rally Has a Short Squeeze Component The sharp surge from August 19-21 saw over 17,000 BTC in short positions forcibly liquidated, meaning it was partly "squeezed" higher rather than purely built on new buying. Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) hit a new range high positive at the same time, showing spot buyers also joined in. However, this momentum has recently turned negative while price remains supported at high levels, indicating selling pressure and support are still battling without a clear winner.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/48ba5f85-1c98-496d-85db-937a3d8a22fc.avif" />Conclusion The current setup is "technicals turning bullish, on-chain sentiment turning positive, but bottom support and overhead resistance have not yet been truly validated." Recovering the 200-week/daily moving averages is solid progress, and the fact that the STH/LTH cost basis has not been broken is a plus. Yet until the 365MA is reclaimed with a close and spot buying momentum returns, this remains an "attempt to leave the bottom," not a "confirmation of leaving the bottom." The closing prices over the next few weeks will be the most critical window to validate this thesis.

Emerging from the Bottom, But Not Yet Steady 

Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode jointly released 《Charting Crypto Q4 2026》, taking a “constructive” view on the Q4 crypto market. It believes Bitcoin has moved from bottoming out into early recovery and sees pullbacks near the 200-day moving average as accumulation opportunities. The report also notes dense selling pressure above current price levels, with most short-term indicators leaning toward consolidation. This episode summarizes the report’s forward-looking judgments and key price levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum, and outlines five variables investors can track before year-end: inflation, yields and oil prices, the Federal Reserve, ETF fund flows, and key support and resistance. （*If you find the content helpful, please like, share, and subscribe so the algorithm can push it to those who need it🫰） <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/b6eBFiMBVeI?si=O4eF6lskj3cBtZx2"></iframe>

Coinbase Institutional 與 Glassnode 聯合發布的《Charting Crypto Q4 2026》對第四季加密市場持「偏樂觀（constructive）」看法，認為比特幣已由築底進入早期復甦，並將拉回至 200 日均線附近視為累積機會。 報告中同時指出目前價位上方有密集賣壓，且多數短期指標偏向盤整。今天這一集整理報告對比特幣與以太幣的前瞻判斷與關鍵價位，並歸納出年底前投資人可自行追蹤的五個變數：通膨、殖利率與油價、聯準會、ETF 資金流，以及關鍵支撐與阻力。 （*如果覺得內容對妳/你有幫助，請按讚、分享和訂閱，讓演算法推送給需要的人🫰） <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/b6eBFiMBVeI?si=O4eF6lskj3cBtZx2"></iframe>

Pullback: Opportunity or Warning Signal? Coinbase × Glassnode Q4 Report: Key Price Levels for Bitcoin and Ethereum Before Year-End

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Bitcoin Buy-side Funds Sound the Alarm! #BTC

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Bitcoin Rebounds, ETF Funds See Nearly $1 Billion Inflow

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