BTC daily transaction count surged from 300,000–400,000 in January this year to 550,000–900,000 in June–July, indicating a clear increase in trading activity. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/4ffffb4e-3bc1-4527-9eaf-dc0567775db7.avif" />However, the number of active addresses has not expanded synchronously, and has even slightly contracted.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/33ad0c29-df48-4cb8-92fb-e803dadd32bc.avif" />What does this represent? It seems more like "existing funds are being reallocated more frequently" rather than "a large influx of new users". On the exchange side, it is also relatively moderate: net outflow of about 1,000 coins in June, about 6,000 in July. Selling pressure is not heavy, and there is even a slight tendency to accumulate coins, but the intensity is not at an institutional level of aggressive buying.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f1fb1825-0983-446a-a3c7-854b4769ce34.avif" />In terms of valuation, MVRV is between 1.15–1.25, significantly lower than the high point in October last year—no overbought conditions, but there is no evidence yet of incremental funds actively entering the market.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/ad7a6027-e081-4ed5-b735-401ebe421055.avif" />🔮Conclusion: On-chain structure is neutral, with no panic selling of holdings; however, the divergence of "volume increase without price synchronization" reminds us that it is not yet time for a reversal. Other data even suggests that consolidation may extend through the entire month of August. So for now, everyone should be patient, avoid excessive operations, and wait for favorable conditions to arrive.

BTC's Road to Recovery: Trading Volume Increases, But Price Lags Behind #BTC

Debasement Trade is one of the hottest macro narratives from late August to now. Its core logic is: when investors believe the dollar's purchasing power will continue to erode due to "high debt + high deficits + policy intervention in the bond market", funds will shift to scarce assets (gold, Bitcoin, some crypto assets) as a hedge. <h2>What is Debasement Trade?</h2> <ul><li>Definition: Investors expect fiat currencies (especially the USD) to lose long-term purchasing power, so they reduce holdings in cash and sovereign debt while increasing exposure to "scarce, inflation-resistant, non-sovereign" assets such as gold and Bitcoin.</li><li>Trigger conditions: Expanding fiscal deficits, rising government debt, central banks or treasuries intervening in bond markets to "suppress long-end yields" (e.g., expanding long-term Treasury buybacks), and rising inflation expectations.</li></ul> <h2>Why is it heating up again now? Three catalysts</h2> U.S. federal debt breaks through $40 trillion <ul><li>On 8/18, U.S. Treasury debt officially surpassed $40 trillion, reaching approximately $40.1 trillion by 8/25; the CBO projects a FY2026 deficit of about $1.9 trillion (roughly 6% of GDP), with interest payments and mandatory spending continuing to push deficits higher.</li><li>High debt + high deficits = markets worry that future debt will only be diluted through "inflation + monetization", which is exactly the core narrative of Debasement Trade.</li></ul> <h2>Treasury expands long-term Treasury buybacks, intervening in the yield curve</h2> <ul><li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks aimed at lowering long-end yields; markets interpreted this as a signal of "fiscal dominance", reinforcing expectations of long-term USD depreciation.</li><li>Result: The dollar weakened while gold and Bitcoin strengthened in tandem; Bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000 and gold hit a three-month high in mid-to-late August.</li></ul> <h2>Geopolitical risks and oil prices lift inflation expectations</h2> <ul><li>Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Brent crude returning to $90/barrel have markets concerned that inflation will remain sticky, making it harder for the Fed to ease policy and possibly even prompting rate hikes, further reinforcing the incentive to "hold physical/scarce assets".</li></ul> <h2>Market evidence: Bitcoin-gold correlation surges</h2> <ul><li>Grayscale research shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold rising from near 0% at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from 60%+ to around 33%, indicating Bitcoin is shifting from "tech-stock beta" toward "gold-style hedging".</li><li>BlackRock Digital Assets head Mitchnick also noted that debt and deficit concerns are driving capital toward Bitcoin and gold, strengthening Bitcoin's macro allocation case.</li><li>Bernstein directly lists Debasement Trade as one of Bitcoin's main medium- to long-term upside drivers, projecting a mid-2027 target of $150,000 and $300,000 by 2029.</li></ul> <h2>But Debasement Trade is not a one-way street: Fed hawks are the biggest headwind</h2> <ul><li>Waller's hawkish Jackson Hole speech (emphasizing inflation not yet under control and more work to do) caused markets to reprice September rate-hike odds to around 60%, strengthening the dollar and short-end yields while gold and Bitcoin pulled back in tandem.</li><li>Goldman Sachs scenario analysis indicates that if the Fed does hike, gold could fall back to $4,400, also suppressing short-term momentum for the "gold-Bitcoin Debasement Trade".</li><li>In other words, Debasement Trade is a "long-term structural narrative", but the short term remains dominated by "interest rates and the dollar"; when markets believe the Fed will fight inflation with rate hikes, valuations of scarce assets will first come under pressure.</li></ul> <h2>Implications for Bitcoin: Repricing from "risk asset" to "macro hedge"</h2> <ul><li>If Debasement Trade continues to unfold, Bitcoin will increasingly be viewed as "digital gold" rather than "tech-stock beta", with capital sources expanding from crypto speculators to macro funds and sovereign/institutional allocators.</li><li>Grayscale even highlighted Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash as potential beneficiaries due to their scarcity, decentralization, and censorship resistance, aligning with the need for "non-sovereign value storage".</li><li>Investors should still note: the 90-day correlation is a short-term indicator; if Fed hawkishness persists and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin may still pull back in tandem with gold rather than rising unilaterally.</li></ul> <h2>What should investors watch?</h2> <ul><li>Fiscal side: Whether U.S. Treasury debt continues to climb, whether Treasury buyback policy expands, and whether CBO deficit forecasts are revised upward.</li><li>Monetary side: The Fed's stance on inflation and rate hikes, the September FOMC rate decision, the DXY dollar index, and the 10-year real yield.</li><li>Asset side: Whether Bitcoin-gold correlation remains elevated, whether gold holds key support (e.g., $4,410–$4,320), and whether Bitcoin ETF flows remain net positive.</li></ul> Overall, Debasement Trade provides Bitcoin with a "macro hedge" medium- to long-term narrative, but short-term price action still hinges on the Fed-dollar tug-of-war: if markets believe "the debt problem can ultimately only be solved through inflation", demand for Bitcoin and gold allocations will keep rising. If the Fed insists on combating inflation with rate hikes, scarce assets will first undergo a valuation correction before waiting for the next liquidity inflection point.

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

Bitcoin is currently standing above $78,000, with both technical indicators and on-chain data sending the same signal: an attempt to build a bottom is underway, leaning bullish in direction, but it has not yet faced a real test. Technical Analysis: Both 200MAs Have Been Recovered The price has simultaneously moved above the daily 200MA and the weekly 200MA.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/81f670a3-1231-4fcc-837c-d838038111f3.avif" />After breaking below the weekly 200MA in early June this year, the price oscillated around the 200WMA for the next two months until it broke out strongly on August 19. This pattern also appeared in 2019. Since the 200WMA has always been strong support, historically Bitcoin bear markets have consolidated near this zone for up to about 1 year and 3 months, or as short as about 3 weeks. Therefore, repeated fluctuations in this range can be seen as a common signal of the bottom-building phase.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/bcd2a061-a651-45ca-a8d2-59924a32a42b.avif" />However, there is still one hurdle above: the daily 365MA (around $82K). On September 3, the price once surged to $82,293 and touched this line, only to be pushed back near $79,000. Whether the daily 365MA can hold with a close is the key technical resistance to watch closely next. On-Chain Data: STH/LTH Cost Basis Has Not Yet Been Retested Comparing the STH &amp; LTH Realized Price chart, the current price is above the average cost of both short-term and long-term holders.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f0a4e0ef-f246-436c-af70-5bf26ba63653.avif" />Looking at SOPR data: STH-SOPR is hovering just above 1.00 (short-term buyers are roughly breaking even, market sentiment is neutral), while LTH-SOPR continues to sit at levels representing cycle bottoms (below 1). <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/99ac4124-f86c-476e-9250-72a1efce4085.avif" /><img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/d7e86767-8617-41cf-8d75-976a21bb8576.avif" />Unrealized Profit/Loss <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NUPL sits at 0.32</a> (&gt;0 indicates holders are on average in slight profit), and Market Value to Realized Value <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">MVRV sits at 1.4</a> (&gt;1 indicates the market trades at a premium to realized cost), both falling in the optimistic recovery or transition zone. Together these figures point to: sentiment turning positive, but far from overheated. This is a healthy signal, though it also means the bottom support has not yet undergone a real stress test. Don't Ignore: This Rally Has a Short Squeeze Component The sharp surge from August 19-21 saw over 17,000 BTC in short positions forcibly liquidated, meaning it was partly "squeezed" higher rather than purely built on new buying. Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) hit a new range high positive at the same time, showing spot buyers also joined in. However, this momentum has recently turned negative while price remains supported at high levels, indicating selling pressure and support are still battling without a clear winner.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/48ba5f85-1c98-496d-85db-937a3d8a22fc.avif" />Conclusion The current setup is "technicals turning bullish, on-chain sentiment turning positive, but bottom support and overhead resistance have not yet been truly validated." Recovering the 200-week/daily moving averages is solid progress, and the fact that the STH/LTH cost basis has not been broken is a plus. Yet until the 365MA is reclaimed with a close and spot buying momentum returns, this remains an "attempt to leave the bottom," not a "confirmation of leaving the bottom." The closing prices over the next few weeks will be the most critical window to validate this thesis.

Emerging from the Bottom, But Not Yet Steady 

--- Data Observation --- Over the past two weeks, ETH rose from $1,876 on 8/10 to $2,507 on 8/26, an increase of over 30%. Logically, many people's first reaction would be: the on-chain activity should also be hot, right? But the data shows that's not necessarily the case. According to Glassnode's statistics, during the same period, ETH's active address count dropped from 499,000 on 8/20 to 414,000 on 8/26; moreover, from 8/22–8/23 it once fell into the 350,000–370,000 range. In other words: prices are rising, but on-chain usage (at least in terms of active addresses) is declining, and the two lines are moving in opposite directions. If we pull the timeline back a bit further, the situation is even more interesting. At the beginning of August, it was the opposite: ETH's active addresses once surged to a near six-month high (approaching one million per day), but the price was mostly stuck around $1,870, even dipping slightly. Looking at these two periods together, it's like a relay race: first on-chain activity heats up, but prices don't follow; then it's prices' turn to catch up, but on-chain activity cools down instead. This actually reminds us of one thing: "active addresses" and "price" are not necessarily two indicators that move in sync. - Active addresses are more like looking at "how many people are using this chain"—influenced by factors such as L2 expansion, airdrops, DeFi activities, bot interactions, etc.- Price, on the other hand, reflects "how much capital the market is willing to pay for this asset"—more easily driven by factors like ETF fund flows, overall risk sentiment, leverage positions, etc. Because the driving forces are different, short-term divergences are actually quite common. For those just starting to look at on-chain data, a better approach is to view "usage-type indicators" and "capital/price-type indicators" separately; only when both sides consistently show signals in the same direction is it more suitable to use them as references for trend judgment. Conversely, if a single indicator is at odds with the price, it's most likely not a data contradiction, but a reminder that we need to look from more angles together.

Activity Up, Address Numbers Down—What Does This ETH Wave Tell Us?

📌Bitcoin price is oscillating between 81,000 and 84,000, where will it head next? This episode uses K-line charts, on-chain data, and the derivatives market to help you identify Bitcoin's most critical support and resistance levels recently. (If the content is helpful, please like + share to let the algorithm push it to those who need it🫰)<iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/1HcdDH_MMYE"></iframe> Key points of this episode: ・Daily support: 81,500～82,000 (previous resistance turned support + lower edge of fair value band)・Upper resistance: around 84,000 (URPD densest supply zone), breakout targets previous high of 87,000・Lower support: after breakdown look at 77,000～78,000 (supply accumulation + liquidation liquidity)・ETF net inflow momentum weakens, turned to net outflow last week・Coinbase Premium enters deep negative territory, US buying interest weak・Options Put/Call Ratio rebounds slightly but remains at relatively low levels, market cautious but not pessimistic・Before this week's CPI and PPI inflation data releases, the market leans toward waiting and seeing *If the content is helpful, please like + share to let the algorithm push it to those who need it🫰

📌比特幣價格在 81,000 到 84,000 之間震盪，下一步會往哪走？ 這集用 K 線圖、鏈上數據和衍生品市場，帶你找出比特幣近期最關鍵的支撐位與阻力位。（如果內容有幫助，請按讚+分享，讓演算法推送給需要的人🫰）<iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/1HcdDH_MMYE"></iframe> 本集重點： ・日線支撐：81,500～82,000（前阻力轉支撐＋公允價值帶下緣）・上方阻力：84,000 附近（URPD 供應最密集區），突破後看 87,000 前高・下方支撐：跌破後看 77,000～78,000（供應積累＋清算流動性）・ETF 淨流入動能減弱，上週轉為淨流出・Coinbase Premium 進入深度負值，美國買盤偏弱・期權 Put/Call Ratio 小幅回升，但仍處相對低位，市場謹慎但不悲觀・本週 CPI、PPI 通膨數據公布前，市場偏向觀望 *如果內容有幫助，請按讚+分享，讓演算法推送給需要的人🫰

Bitcoin's Upward Move Stuck at $84,000! Break Below $81,500 Means $77,000? ETF Buying Weakens, Key Price Levels Before CPI Week Explained

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