Summary: This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund inflows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks.-------(Main Text)Bitcoin surged from 63K to 77K last week, pulled back briefly, then broke through again in the past two days to stand above 79K, setting a new high for this rebound. As discussed earlier, this rally began as a short squeeze—short positions were heavily forced to close—but funding rates did not rise accordingly at the time, and most chips remained on exchanges. It resembled a typical short squeeze rebound rather than an established trend. However, things changed. Real buying started entering around 8/20. What happened from 8/20 until now? Below are the on-chain observations so far. 📅 After 8/20: Real Spot Buying Enters After the short squeeze, signals clearly strengthened. The Bitcoin ETF Netflow chart shows several days with significantly larger single-day net inflows, a scale rarely seen recently, indicating institutional buying has clearly warmed up. At the same time, Total Exchange Outflow (30-day average) for both spot and derivatives exchanges began climbing from 8/18, rising to a high around 8/20, moving in sync with the price rally from 63K to 73K. This period indeed saw large amounts of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges, not merely leveraged positioning. This is the clearest dividing line between judging a "short squeeze" versus "real buying." However, note that after the weekend, the average outflow for both exchange types retreated from their highs—spot exchanges declined from near their peak, and derivatives exchanges weakened in tandem, even as prices continued to edge higher. Withdrawal momentum has slowed in recent days, suggesting a slight increase in selling pressure or profit-taking. This will be revisited in the observation list below. One more piece of supporting evidence: The URPD (supply distribution) chart shows a clear supply cluster in the $76-78K range, sitting just below the current spot price of $78,564 and still in profit. This cluster formed rapidly only after the 20th. It indicates that a batch of chips was indeed acquired in this price zone and remains on-chain, rather than being purely internal exchange leverage activity. This aligns with the earlier observations of amplified ETF net inflows and rising exchange withdrawals, further supporting the judgment that "real buying has entered this rally." 📒 Profit-Taking Test: Still Ongoing As the price retook the short-term holder cost basis (around 67K) and the realized cost of newly entered whales (around 68.9-70K), this previously underwater supply turned into profit-taking—on 8/20 alone, roughly $614 million was realized, a record high. This was a critical demand test: if new buying can absorb this selling pressure and price holds the cost zone, it signals a true structural shift to strength. Although the price has reclaimed the previous high (around 79.3K), it has spent very little time above this level and volume has not expanded meaningfully to accompany it. It resembles a "low-volume rally," insufficient to conclude that the profit-taking test has passed. 👀 What to Watch Now With the price breaking above the prior high, the original whale cost zone (67-70K) has shifted from a "resistance test line" to a "key support observation area" on pullbacks. Going forward, continue tracking: 1️⃣ Whether withdrawal momentum from spot and derivatives exchanges can rebound—the post-weekend averages for both have retreated from highs; if they continue weakening, it indicates cooling buying and withdrawal willingness2️⃣ Whether exchange reserves will turn back to outflows—before this rebound, reserves had only just broken a two-year downtrend and reclaimed the 200-day moving average; a return to outflows would reaffirm the long-term supply contraction narrative3️⃣ Whether price can hold the 67-70K cost zone and the newly formed 76-78K supply cluster on pullbacks; a break below could revive earlier short-squeeze concerns.(Data source: Crypto Mommy @ CryptoQuant) ✏️ One-Sentence Summary This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund flows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks. ⚠️ The above is on-chain data observation, not investment advice.

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

Setting aside the public opinion sparked by ARC’s Indian development team in the community and the sharp drop in meme coins and ecosystem tokens, the ACR chain is still worth introducing. ## TL;DR Arc mainnet officially launched on September 16. It positions itself as the “economic operating system” for the internet: using USDC as native gas, sub-second finality, EVM compatible, and offering an optional compliance privacy layer. The genesis validator list reads like a global financial infrastructure directory (BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Visa, Mastercard, Standard Chartered, SBI, Galaxy). On launch day, the ecosystem already featured a star-studded lineup, including DeFi partners (Aave, Uniswap, etc.), wallets (MetaMask), and exchanges (Robinhood). ## Technical Positioning: Designed for Institutions, Not Crypto-Native Users Arc’s three core design choices target traditional financial institutions rather than on-chain speculators. <ol><li>Native Gas: Fees are denominated in USD and paid in USDC, making costs predictable and bookable without exposure to native token volatility;</li><li>Consensus: Malachite (Informal Systems team, derived from Tendermint) delivers sub-second deterministic finality, eliminating the need to wait for 6 confirmations—suitable for POS acquiring, spot FX, and broker clearing;</li><li>Execution Layer: Reth, fully EVM compatible + optional privacy (EVM precompile, preserving audit disclosure channels). Retains the Solidity toolchain; privacy is placed on the compliance side.</li></ol> It also includes a built-in FX engine. Since launch, the testnet has processed approximately 2.441 billion transactions. ## Ecosystem: Fully Loaded at Launch Circle did not let the mainnet run empty: on launch day there were already 100+ applications, 100+ institutions, and ecosystem builders. <ul><li>DeFi: Aave, Uniswap, Curve, Morpho, Aerodrome, Euler, Fluid</li><li>Market Makers: FalconX, Galaxy, GSR, Keyrock, Nonco, XFX</li><li>Payments: Rain, Thunes, Wirex</li><li>Entry Points: MetaMask as default wallet; Binance Wallet as the first to support; KuCoin already enabled direct USDC deposits and withdrawals; OpenSea supported on launch day; Robinhood also announced support for Arc network USDC deposits and withdrawals</li><li>Oracles: Chainlink deployed on launch day (via Chainlink Scale)</li></ul> The significance of this list: Arc’s cold-start risk has essentially been underwritten by capital and distribution channels. ## Token: Minted, But Not Issued The whitepaper discloses a total supply of 10 billion ARC, allocated as Ecosystem Development 60% / Protocol Development &amp; Operations 25% / Long-term Reserve 15%; initial inflation of 2–3% for validator and staking rewards. On the fee mechanism, fees paid in any supported currency are automatically swapped by the protocol into ARC; a portion rewards validators and the rest is permanently burned, designed to offset inflation through burns. Circle previously raised $222 million via ARC token presale (2026/5/11, valuation ~$3 billion), with investors including BlackRock, ICE, Standard Chartered, SC Ventures, ARK Invest, General Catalyst, and IDG. However, at mainnet launch Circle reiterated: genesis minting of 10B does not imply a public token issuance. The Arc project TGE status remains “pre,” with no publicly tradable price. ⚠️ Any token named “ARC” listed on exchanges belongs to other projects or memes—do not buy by mistake. ## Market Reaction: Stocks Fell First CRCL weakened on the day of mainnet launch, indicating the market viewed the ARC launch as a priced-in event and that short-term focus is on “Circle spending to build the chain, but may not receive token dividends.”<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/e08983f5-bfa0-4763-b3e0-f0a9c312fd9a.avif" /> ## Conclusion Arc is not competing with other L1s for DeFi users; it is betting on “after stablecoins become the global payment pipeline, who will serve as the operating system for that pipeline.” Its moat lies in distribution and compliance—none of the validators or ecosystem names are projects that grew via airdrops. Its weaknesses are the centralization discount from a permissioned validator set and reliance on the single entity Circle. Bottom line: At this stage, Arc is an “infrastructure narrative” rather than a “tradable asset.”There is no public token; the only public exposure vehicle is CRCL stock, and the share price has already given a negative response. The three things truly worth tracking: whether actual USDC settlement volume on Arc can ramp up, whether Circle will eventually open ARC for public issuance, and when the validator set will move from permissioned to open. Arc does not want to compete with chains like Solana or Base for retail DeFi users. What Circle wants is this: if the world eventually moves money and makes payments with stablecoins, there will need to be a dedicated chain for that money—and it wants to be that chain. Strengths Arc’s strength lies in “connections,” not technology. Its validators are institutions of the caliber of BlackRock, Visa, Mastercard, and NYSE parent ICE. On day one, major DeFi protocols and wallets were already integrated. Other new chains spend two years issuing airdrops to attract users; Arc had users the moment it booted. Weaknesses Arc has two main weaknesses. First, who can become a validator is decided by Circle; not everyone who wants to join can join. Crypto circles will therefore view it as “not decentralized enough,” and the valuation they are willing to assign will be discounted. Second, the entire chain is essentially tied to a single company, Circle; if Circle runs into trouble, Arc runs into trouble. For retail investors: The ARC token has not been publicly issued. Circle genesis-minted 10 billion ARC but explicitly stated “this does not represent a commitment to issue publicly.” Any ARC trading on the market is not the token of this chain. Meanwhile, Circle’s parent company CRCL stock actually fell more than 6.5% to $80.46 on launch day (a classic “good news already priced in” reaction). Watch three things going forward: Is anyone actually using USDC for settlement on Arc, and can volume scale? Will Circle ultimately issue ARC to the market, and if so, how will it be calculated? And when will the validator set shift from “Circle picks participants” to “anyone can join”? These factors will determine whether it is truly a chain or merely one company’s database.

Circle Arc Chain: First-Hand Assessment After Mainnet Launch

In the cryptocurrency market, the biggest difference in mindset between retail investors and institutions often lies in how they interpret "bearish news." When the market is flooded with bad news, but prices refuse to make new lows, community sentiment usually views it as a random "bounce" or meme-like frenzy; however, in the eyes of professional traders, this is a highly indicative market state—bearish absorption (Absorption). 1. The Truth Behind No Drop on Bad News: From Catalyst-Driven to "Seller Exhaustion" The crypto market has recently faced multiple bearish blows: from panic rumors that MicroStrategy might sell Bitcoin, to Zcash being flagged by AI for serious privacy vulnerabilities, to internal Ethereum community debates over moral purity and gambling behavior. Yet the market's actual movement has delivered a resounding slap to the bears: major tokens like BTC, ETH, and ZEC not only avoided new lows but staged significant rebounds. This shows the market has transitioned from the "bearish catalyst-driven selling" phase to the "bearish absorption" phase. In simple terms, funds that wanted to sell or were forced to stop-loss have exited, resulting in Seller Exhaustion. At this point, any new bearish news is merely striking a reinforced wall, unable to create new depths. When bad news can no longer produce lower lows, smart money should stop waiting for a textbook "ultimate crash" and recognize that the market bottom is being quietly built through "absorption." 2. Macro Liquidity: The Real Driver Overlooked by the Community Crypto Twitter often attributes price rises to some KOL's tweet or community meme. In reality, the true core driver behind this price resilience is the quietly improving macro environment (Macro Relief). As U.S. CPI and PPI data cool, market anxiety over Fed rate hikes has been greatly eased. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETF flows have shifted from outflows to steady inflows. Ignoring the macro economy and global liquidity easing while attributing the rally solely to sentiment rebound would severely misjudge the market's next phase. Liquidity is the water, and token prices are merely the boats floating on it. 3. Distribution Over Purity: Structural Rotation in the EVM Ecosystem In this rebound, Ethereum (ETH) and its L2 ecosystem have demonstrated strong structural advantages. Interestingly, this contrasts sharply with internal Ethereum cultural conflicts. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently expressed concern over prediction markets increasingly turning into "gaming and gambling," sparking community debate on whether Ethereum has lost its "decentralized moral high ground." Yet on the other side of the market comes the most substantive news: traditional internet brokerage giant Robinhood announced it will build a dedicated L2 chain on Arbitrum for tokenization (RWA) and settlement of mainstream financial assets. This sends an extremely clear signal: distribution channels matter far more than ideological purity. Regardless of community debates on moral issues, Web2 giants and mainstream financial institutions still prioritize the EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) ecosystem when choosing settlement paths for tokenized assets. This substantive application landing and user onboarding is the core supporting long-term value of EVM and L2 infrastructure. By comparison, Zcash's reflexive surge after the privacy vulnerability news due to "bad news priced in" is merely short-term narrative alchemy, not a healthy long-term asset choice. 4. Future Outlook and Trading Strategy How should investors and traders position themselves in the current market landscape? Embrace EVM and L2 Infrastructure: Prioritize ecosystems with strong financial distribution channel support (such as ETH, Arbitrum, Base, etc.), rather than blindly chasing privacy coins rebounding because vulnerabilities didn't kill them (such as ZEC). Ignore Noise, Focus on Capital Flows: Detach attention from celebrity gossip and panic rhetoric, closely monitor macro rate expectations and actual ETF inflows—this is the market's central nervous system. Guard Against Excessive Optimism: While "bearish absorption" has established a short-term bottom, if macro improvement slows and market funding rates become excessively high, beware of the risk that the market shifts from "bearish absorption" to "retail overconfidence" and chasing highs. Conclusion: This round's dawn does not belong to the believers shouting slogans in the comments, but to the rational allocators who see the essence of capital flows and focus on infrastructure distribution channels. Distinguishing between "memes" and "mechanisms" is what allows one to go further in the next wave.

No Drop on Bad News. Has the Market Turned?

AI chip leader Nvidia is reportedly acquiring open-source AI model platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, which would become one of the largest acquisitions in its history if completed. This deal is not just about the financial figures but a key move in Nvidia's AI software and ecosystem strategy. Deal Background According to media reports, Nvidia has in principle agreed to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, a significant premium over the $4.5 billion valuation from the 2023 Series D round. Notably, Nvidia participated in Hugging Face's funding back in 2023 with an investment of $235 million and is now taking the whole thing. It is reported that Hugging Face rejected a $500 million investment proposal from Nvidia last year at a $7 billion valuation, but is now selling at nearly double that price, showing the strategic value of open-source AI platforms has surged dramatically in just one year. Why Hugging Face? Hugging Face is known as the "GitHub of the AI world," serving as the core hub for developers worldwide to share, test, and deploy open-source large language models and datasets. For Nvidia, acquiring Hugging Face means gaining control of the "distribution network" for open-source AI models, further strengthening its vertical integration advantage from chips and cloud to the model ecosystem. Against the backdrop of closed-source model companies like OpenAI and Anthropic developing their own chips to reduce reliance on Nvidia, this move aims to reinforce Nvidia's influence over the open-source ecosystem and avoid marginalization. Market Impact and Risks If the deal completes, Nvidia would transform from a pickaxe-selling chip supplier into an AI platform giant controlling models, tools, and communities. However, this could also trigger regulatory scrutiny, especially concerns from the open-source community about "platform monopolization." Neither party has made an official announcement yet, and the deal could still fall through due to regulatory or negotiation variables. Regardless, the transaction has sent a clear signal: in the next phase of the AI war, ecosystem control is more important than raw chip performance alone. For investors, Nvidia's acquisition strategy shows it is no longer content with its hardware leader status but is actively expanding into software and application layers, with its long-term growth narrative shifting from AI chips to AI infrastructure.

Nvidia Acquires Hugging Face: A Key Step in Securing the AI Ecosystem

比特幣已經在 8.25萬到8.73萬美元之間箱型整理兩週，週一天漲到8.67萬，正在測試箱頂！波動率指標BBWP在10/1跌到極低值後開始回升。本週有機會突破嗎？ 這集用日線技術分析 (Fair Value Bands、BBWP)、URPD籌碼分布，以及Coinbase溢價，判斷比特幣這週突破的機率。並整理本週ISM服務業PMI、FOMC會議紀要、美債標售等重要事件。 <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/E-VI9QYGHUo"></iframe>

比特幣卡在8.5萬兩週了! 突破87K還是回測82K?

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BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

Circle Arc Chain: First-Hand Assessment After Mainnet Launch

No Drop on Bad News. Has the Market Turned?

Nvidia Acquires Hugging Face: A Key Step in Securing the AI Ecosystem

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