Fed Chair Kevin Warsh was straightforward in his recent Jackson Hole speech: Although summer inflation data looked better than expected, inflation’s “underlying trend” has not truly improved. The Fed’s priority remains price stability; unless inflation can clearly and at a sufficiently rapid pace approach 2%, it’s the same old line—there’s still work to do. What does this signal mean for risk assets? In short: funding costs may not fall as quickly, and the market will need to readjust its expectations for the rate path. Inflation Data and Policy Stance: Hawkish Tone Directly Reprices Rate Expectations Warsh cited the latest PCE data, noting: <ul><li>12-month inflation around 3.7%</li><li>Six-month annualized rate even reached 4.1%</li><li>More than half of the items in the PCE basket still showing year-over-year increases above 3%</li></ul> The key point is not any single number but that the “breadth” of inflation remains wide, making it difficult for the Fed to comfortably shift dovish. The market reacted quickly: before the speech, odds of a September rate hike were priced around 35%; afterward they jumped to 55–60%. Typical follow-on effects followed: the 2-year Treasury yield rose and the dollar strengthened. Immediate Impact on Bitcoin and Risk Assets: Resistance Above 80k, Retracement to 77k Under the combination of a “hawkish Fed + strong dollar + rising short-term rates,” the market naturally targeted high-volatility, zero-yield assets first. After the speech, Bitcoin pulled back from an intraday high near $81,300, briefly breaking below $77,000, with a single-day decline of roughly 3%–3.4%. The total crypto market cap fell in tandem, triggering hundreds of millions of dollars in long liquidations. Ethereum, XRP, and other major coins followed lower—the familiar pattern: when liquidity tightens, high-beta assets are sold first. Why Bitcoin Is Behaving More Like an “Interest-Rate-Sensitive Risk Asset” This Time Many like to call BTC an inflation hedge, but trading behavior shows it is far more sensitive to liquidity and real interest rates as a risk asset. Warsh’s repeated emphasis on “price stability first” and the possibility of rate hikes pushed up: <ul><li>Real-rate expectations</li><li>Dollar funding costs</li></ul> Both factors compress valuation room for risk assets, which is why gold and Bitcoin came under pressure on the hawkish signal. The market is not rejecting Bitcoin’s long-term narrative; it is simply repricing “funding costs” in the short term—that is the core driver of recent price action. After Jackson Hole: Two Scenarios, the Paths You Should Watch Below I lay out two scenarios to help you track developments through a “data → inference” lens. A. Hawkish Continuation (Tighter Liquidity) If subsequent data (PCE, employment, wages) remain hot, the Fed will stick with the “still work to do” narrative, making a September hike or at least a delay in easing unsurprising. In this scenario: <ul><li>Short-term rates and the dollar stay strong</li><li>Risk assets remain under pressure</li><li>Bitcoin could test support around $75,500</li></ul> B. Data-Dependent Patience (Market Gets a Breather) If inflation breadth begins to narrow and core items cool, the Fed will shift toward “no preset path, data-dependent” language. Rate-hike odds would fall, the dollar and short-term rates would weaken, and risk appetite could return. Bitcoin would then have a better chance of retesting the $80,000–$83,000 zone and could pull Ethereum and high-beta altcoins higher. Tracking Checklist Going Forward <ol><li>PCE / Core PCE: watch whether month-on-month readings slow and whether inflation “breadth” narrows</li><li>2Y vs 10Y spread &amp; DXY: the thermometer for funding costs and dollar liquidity</li><li>Bitcoin spot ETF flows + futures open interest: distinguish real buying from leverage-driven moves</li><li>Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index: whether it cools from overheated levels to neutral, signaling if further near-term downside risk remains</li></ol> For longer-term holders, this period looks like a liquidity-driven valuation reset; for short-term traders, the key is watching whether the Fed’s tone shifts from “hawkish probing” to “data-dependent patience.” Once the tone genuinely turns, it often serves as the catalyst for risk assets to re-accelerate.

Fed Inflation Views and Bitcoin: Risk Asset Roadmap After Jackson Hole

即將來臨的10月，是幣圈人看好的“Uptober”。真的是這樣？Or，Uptober 只是迷因呢？今天上線的Youtube 影片，讓我從數據出發，透過分析框架理解Uptober是否會成真。 <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/S6XApI_uF3M?si=daN909cC9fui43oa"></iframe>

Uptober 🚀是規律還是迷因？用鏈上數據預判比特幣 10 月走勢 #BTC

BTC daily transaction count surged from 300,000–400,000 in January this year to 550,000–900,000 in June–July, indicating a clear increase in trading activity. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/4ffffb4e-3bc1-4527-9eaf-dc0567775db7.avif" />However, the number of active addresses has not expanded synchronously, and has even slightly contracted.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/33ad0c29-df48-4cb8-92fb-e803dadd32bc.avif" />What does this represent? It seems more like "existing funds are being reallocated more frequently" rather than "a large influx of new users". On the exchange side, it is also relatively moderate: net outflow of about 1,000 coins in June, about 6,000 in July. Selling pressure is not heavy, and there is even a slight tendency to accumulate coins, but the intensity is not at an institutional level of aggressive buying.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f1fb1825-0983-446a-a3c7-854b4769ce34.avif" />In terms of valuation, MVRV is between 1.15–1.25, significantly lower than the high point in October last year—no overbought conditions, but there is no evidence yet of incremental funds actively entering the market.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/ad7a6027-e081-4ed5-b735-401ebe421055.avif" />🔮Conclusion: On-chain structure is neutral, with no panic selling of holdings; however, the divergence of "volume increase without price synchronization" reminds us that it is not yet time for a reversal. Other data even suggests that consolidation may extend through the entire month of August. So for now, everyone should be patient, avoid excessive operations, and wait for favorable conditions to arrive.

BTC's Road to Recovery: Trading Volume Increases, But Price Lags Behind #BTC

SOPR（Spent Output Profit Ratio）is one of the most commonly used Bitcoin profit/loss indicators in on-chain analysis, suitable as the first tool for fans getting started with on-chain analysis.<h2>What is SOPR?</h2>SOPR evaluates the overall profit ratio of market participants by comparing the value of a UTXO（Unspent Transaction Output）at the time it is spent versus when it was created. In simple terms, it can be used to estimate whether the "moved Bitcoin" in the current market is being sold in a profitable or loss-making state.The calculation is straightforward: SOPR = USD value at the time of spending (realized value) ÷ USD value at the time of creation (cost basis), which is "current value ÷ past value".<h2>How to Interpret This Indicator's Value?</h2>When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that on average, coins moved during this time frame are being sold at a profit; SOPR exactly equal to 1 indicates break-even on average; SOPR less than 1 means coins are on average being sold at a loss.This is the most basic and easiest part to explain to fans: SOPR &gt; 1 = market is realizing profits, SOPR &lt; 1 market is selling at a loss.<h2>Trends Are More Meaningful Than Single Values</h2>When SOPR rises, it indicates profits are being realized, coins that were in profit are being transferred to others, which may also mean profit-taking selling pressure is increasing, or overall market conditions for sellers are becoming more favorable; when SOPR falls, it indicates losses are being realized, possibly reflecting increased loss-cutting selling pressure and worsening conditions for sellers.<h2>Practical Applications in Bull and Bear Markets</h2><ul><li>Bull market: As prices rise, more holdings turn profitable, and long-term holders tend to take profits when opportunities arise. If SOPR approaches or falls below 1 after a correction, it indicates that profit-taking holders' coins are in "dormancy," which may be an entry signal; if SOPR continues to rise, it may indicate increasing profit-taking selling pressure, or even suggest approaching a local or macro top.</li><li>Bull market pullback: Newcomers may panic sell, while long-term holders may add to positions during the dip; if profitable coins continue flowing into the market, SOPR will gradually decline; if newcomers engage in capitulation selling, SOPR may approach or drop below 1, while profitable coins remain dormant, reflecting market confidence and subsequent rebound potential.</li><li>Bear market: When supply continues to exceed demand, SOPR may appear elevated. At local lows, investors cutting losses will push SOPR significantly below 1, creating entry opportunities for contrarian traders. During the reversal and recovery phase, SOPR may rise back above 1. If the bear market enters a final capitulation stage, SOPR may remain below 1, indicating that remaining profitable coins continue to stay dormant, setting the stage for a subsequent supply squeeze.</li></ul>---<h2>Simple Analogy for Newbie Readers</h2> SOPR is like the average profit and loss statement for the entire Bitcoin market: every moved Bitcoin tells you whether that coin was sold at a profit or at a loss. A single day's number has little meaning; the focus is on long-term trends and the critical moments when it breaks below or rises above 1, which usually correspond to turning points in market sentiment.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

本集內容 - 我將透過鏈上數據深度解析短期持有者的行為模式，揭秘他們對比特幣價格走勢的關鍵影響。儘管8月加密市場表現疲軟且機構賣出BTC現貨ETF，我會運用Glassnode專業數據工具，為你全面剖析當前市場狀況與未來走勢。 內容包括Short-Term Holder的Realized Price支撐分析、MVRV指標的牛熊市應用技巧、NUPL情緒指標判讀方法，以及為囤幣黨和波段交易者提供最佳進出場時機建議。 <iframe class='ql-video' frameborder='0' allowfullscreen='true' src='//www.youtube.com/embed/tLyIpIMP-xI?si=DiAPjgYoICX3W-68'></iframe>

【熊市陷阱？】BTC真的還會繼續下跌嗎？短期持有者數據揭秘！｜鏈上數據深度解析 #btc

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Fed Inflation Views and Bitcoin: Risk Asset Roadmap After Jackson Hole

Uptober 🚀是規律還是迷因？用鏈上數據預判比特幣 10 月走勢 #BTC

BTC's Road to Recovery: Trading Volume Increases, But Price Lags Behind #BTC

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

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