Bitcoin's weekly 21SMA and 50SMA are still hovering at the intersection. Although the death cross threat has not been lifted, the strong institutional buying in the past week has significantly reversed the short-term momentum. $101.5K (weekly 21SMA) is not only the most important "pressure red line" at present, but also the watershed of the bullish and bearish trends.
On-chain data presents a "cautiously optimistic" structure. Long-term holders (LTH) selling pressure has significantly slowed and turned to accumulation, and major miners have shown extremely strong holding resilience after the halving, with no large-scale selling, indicating that supply-side pressure has tended to be exhausted.
However, before the price breaks through with volume and stabilizes above $101.5K, the bull market has not officially returned. In addition, the $99.4K short-term holder average cost (STH Realized Price) also constitutes dense trapped holder pressure zone.
In summary, before the key resistance is confirmed to turn into support, maintaining wide-range trading (Range Trading) remains the best strategy to balance risk and reward at present.