Last week, on 9/15, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate vote, and BTC briefly fell below $75,000; on 9/16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% (first time since 2023); on 9/18, the BOJ simultaneously raised rates to 1.25% (new high since 1995). Three major bearish factors appeared in the same week, yet BTC did not continue to break downward. On Friday, it returned to $80,000 relying on ETF buying and short covering, briefly reaching above approximately $81,900.
Capital Flows: Supported by Single-Day Buying, Not Sustained Inflows
BTC ETF net inflows for the week totaled only about $6.2 million. Tuesday and Wednesday combined saw outflows exceeding $740 million, turning positive only thanks to Friday’s $433 million inflow (FBTC contributed approximately $310.7 million). The price reclaiming $80,000 also relied on short covering—on 9/18, approximately $170 million in short positions were liquidated in a single day. Multiple analysts characterized this move as a short squeeze rather than new long positions being built.
Capital flows diverged clearly: ETH ETF saw outflows of about $140 million for the week, ending four consecutive weeks of net inflows; Zcash ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $98.2 million, the highest among the 14 crypto ETFs that week; Solana ETF continued positive inflows. BTC and Zcash attracted capital, while ETH was relatively neglected.
Three Key Focus Areas This Week
Wednesday PMI: Flash PMI for September will be released on 9/23. In addition to the growth components, the input cost and selling price indices are equally critical—if the price components rise, it will reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance.
Fed officials’ speeches and oil prices: At least 10 officials are scheduled to speak publicly this week. The market will assess whether they hint at another rate hike this year; if oil prices continue to strengthen due to Middle East geopolitical risks, it will also limit the Fed’s room for easing.
ETF flows and $80,000 support: Last week’s rebound was driven by single-day capital surges and deleveraging, not yet confirmed as trend-based buying. Watch whether ETF net inflows can stay positive for multiple consecutive days and whether BTC can hold above $80,000, rather than repeatedly touching the level and falling back as seen in August and September.
Conclusion
Last week was a combination of “bearish news priced in + single-day capital support + short covering,” not yet a signal of fundamentally strengthening conditions. This week’s PMI, density of Fed speeches, and continuity of ETF flows will determine whether the rebound can extend to challenge $83,000 or merely serve as a short-term recovery after deleveraging.