Summary: This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund inflows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks.-------(Main Text)Bitcoin surged from 63K to 77K last week, pulled back briefly, then broke through again in the past two days to stand above 79K, setting a new high for this rebound. As discussed earlier, this rally began as a short squeeze—short positions were heavily forced to close—but funding rates did not rise accordingly at the time, and most chips remained on exchanges. It resembled a typical short squeeze rebound rather than an established trend. However, things changed. Real buying started entering around 8/20. What happened from 8/20 until now? Below are the on-chain observations so far. 📅 After 8/20: Real Spot Buying Enters After the short squeeze, signals clearly strengthened. The Bitcoin ETF Netflow chart shows several days with significantly larger single-day net inflows, a scale rarely seen recently, indicating institutional buying has clearly warmed up. At the same time, Total Exchange Outflow (30-day average) for both spot and derivatives exchanges began climbing from 8/18, rising to a high around 8/20, moving in sync with the price rally from 63K to 73K. This period indeed saw large amounts of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges, not merely leveraged positioning. This is the clearest dividing line between judging a "short squeeze" versus "real buying." However, note that after the weekend, the average outflow for both exchange types retreated from their highs—spot exchanges declined from near their peak, and derivatives exchanges weakened in tandem, even as prices continued to edge higher. Withdrawal momentum has slowed in recent days, suggesting a slight increase in selling pressure or profit-taking. This will be revisited in the observation list below. One more piece of supporting evidence: The URPD (supply distribution) chart shows a clear supply cluster in the $76-78K range, sitting just below the current spot price of $78,564 and still in profit. This cluster formed rapidly only after the 20th. It indicates that a batch of chips was indeed acquired in this price zone and remains on-chain, rather than being purely internal exchange leverage activity. This aligns with the earlier observations of amplified ETF net inflows and rising exchange withdrawals, further supporting the judgment that "real buying has entered this rally." 📒 Profit-Taking Test: Still Ongoing As the price retook the short-term holder cost basis (around 67K) and the realized cost of newly entered whales (around 68.9-70K), this previously underwater supply turned into profit-taking—on 8/20 alone, roughly $614 million was realized, a record high. This was a critical demand test: if new buying can absorb this selling pressure and price holds the cost zone, it signals a true structural shift to strength. Although the price has reclaimed the previous high (around 79.3K), it has spent very little time above this level and volume has not expanded meaningfully to accompany it. It resembles a "low-volume rally," insufficient to conclude that the profit-taking test has passed. 👀 What to Watch Now With the price breaking above the prior high, the original whale cost zone (67-70K) has shifted from a "resistance test line" to a "key support observation area" on pullbacks. Going forward, continue tracking: 1️⃣ Whether withdrawal momentum from spot and derivatives exchanges can rebound—the post-weekend averages for both have retreated from highs; if they continue weakening, it indicates cooling buying and withdrawal willingness2️⃣ Whether exchange reserves will turn back to outflows—before this rebound, reserves had only just broken a two-year downtrend and reclaimed the 200-day moving average; a return to outflows would reaffirm the long-term supply contraction narrative3️⃣ Whether price can hold the 67-70K cost zone and the newly formed 76-78K supply cluster on pullbacks; a break below could revive earlier short-squeeze concerns.(Data source: Crypto Mommy @ CryptoQuant) ✏️ One-Sentence Summary This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund flows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks. ⚠️ The above is on-chain data observation, not investment advice.

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

Recently, $BTC once dipped below 80,000 USD, and market sentiment instantly turned tense. Some are nervous again -- is the trend about to reverse? But if we break down this volatility, I’m more inclined to see it as a “liquidity sweep” and a flush of leveraged positions rather than a structural weakening or trend reversal. 1) Breaking below a round-number level feels more like sweeping stops and leveraged positions Round numbers like 80,000 naturally attract clusters of stop-loss orders and leveraged positions. Once price quickly breaks below, a chain reaction can occur: <ul><li>Stop-losses triggered</li><li>Leveraged positions liquidated</li><li>Short-term “sharp drop” panic sets in</li></ul> But the key point is: price did not collapse all the way down; it quickly returned near the 80,000 USD level.This pattern of “break → sweep → pull back” usually resembles consolidation within an uptrend rather than a typical sign of trend weakness. 2) Capital still favors BTC: dominance near 59% is a key signal Another point I find more worth watching: capital remains clearly concentrated in $BTC rather than broadly rotating into altcoins. From an overall market-structure perspective: <ul><li>- Total crypto market cap is around 2.7 trillion USD</li><li>- Yet $BTC dominance remains close to 59%</li></ul> This shows the market is not “completely risk-on,” but rather that funds prefer to park first in the most liquid and consensus-strong asset. In fact, this structure is often healthier than “every coin surging together.” The phase of indiscriminate pumping is usually late-stage euphoria, while the current setup looks more like “core assets leading with a more orderly pace.” 3) Leverage sentiment is warm but not out of control: funding rates still in a manageable range The leverage side can also help us determine whether this drop is a “trend break” or simply “a washout before the next leg up.” Perpetual-contract funding rates remain positive, indicating bullish sentiment and participation, but they have not reached the stage of: <ul><li>Overcrowded chasing</li><li>Extreme overheating</li><li>The imbalanced state typical of a bubble’s final phase</li></ul> In other words: It is normal for this pullback to flush out some high-chasing longs, but it does not mean the overall trend has ended. The situations that truly warrant caution usually come with more severe funding-rate imbalances, clearly amplified spot selling pressure, or weakening BTC dominance. 4) On-chain shows no panic: the move is more “market structure” than “demand collapse” Looking at on-chain data, there are also no typical panic signatures: <ul><li>Transaction counts remain roughly stable</li><li>Active addresses have not suddenly collapsed</li><li>Fees have not spiked or caused network congestion</li></ul> This suggests the short-term volatility is more likely driven by “position adjustments and market structure” rather than a sudden collapse in real demand. Many people are used to mapping price moves directly onto some on-chain narrative, but here the dominant factors are more likely: Leveraged positions + round-number stop sweeps + BTC’s role as the first stop for risk capital. 5) The macro environment also limits broad capital rotation: BTC acts more like a “safe haven within risk assets” Zooming out, high yields, a relatively strong dollar, and risk assets not yet clearly turning bullish all make it harder for speculative capital to flow en masse into small-cap altcoins. By contrast, $BTC, because of its: <ul><li>Scarcity</li><li>Liquidity</li><li>Consensus strength</li></ul> Ends up functioning more like a “safe haven inside risk assets” that funds are willing to hold first. This also explains why the market currently shows BTC leading while altcoins lag. Conclusion: This looks more like healthy consolidation than “80k broken = bear market” To sum up my view in one sentence: We are still in an expansion phase led by BTC. The break below 80k is more like clearing excess leverage and stops before resuming the uptrend rhythm. The truly important things to watch going forward are not “whether it briefly breaks some precise number,” but rather: <ul><li>Whether $BTC can hold above the 78,000–80,000 USD zone</li><li>Whether funding rates will overheat or become imbalanced quickly</li><li>Whether BTC dominance can remain strong</li></ul> If it reclaims 80k, this dip could even be viewed as a “healthy accumulation” process; conversely, if we see funding rates keep rising, spot demand lagging, and structural imbalances, then more caution on short-term pullback risk would be warranted. In short, rather than “80k broken, so the rally is over,” I prefer to interpret it as:The market is still in an uptrend, just becoming more selective in its pace. Under this structure, $BTC remains the core asset most worth watching. ⚠️This post is for discussion only and is not investment advice.

Bitcoin Breaking Below $80k Looks More Like a Liquidity Sweep, Not a Trend Reversal

Since July 2026, Bitcoin's Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR, Stablecoin Supply Ratio) has risen at a pace exceeding the BTC price itself. This means that the expansion of stablecoin liquidity has failed to keep up with the growth of Bitcoin's market capitalization. In other words, the potential buy-side "dry firewood" relative to BTC is gradually tightening. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/db915430-9afc-4bdf-8b21-057164a91fb8.avif" />This divergence usually suggests that market demand is facing more constraints: ♦️Change in upward momentum: Subsequent rallies may rely less on external new stablecoin funds rotating in, and more on the positioning of existing market chips. ♦️Increased pullback risk: If SSR continues to climb while prices stagnate, once a pullback occurs, the corrective force may be more intense. It is worth noting that an SSR increase faster than the coin price is a warning sign, indicating bottlenecks on the demand side, but it does not equate to necessarily being bearish. For investors, this means the market lacks the strong incremental stablecoin liquidity support seen in the early cycle, so the sustainability of rallies weakens, and the damage from price pullbacks is relatively greater. Trading Core and Risk Management: Continuously monitor trends: Watch whether SSR can stabilize or decline afterward (indicating stablecoin liquidity catching up again). Be vigilant about liquidity tightening: If SSR continues to rise, it represents an environment of capital contraction still persisting, and should serve as an important reference indicator for adjusting positions and managing risks. --------------⚠️This article only represents the blogger's personal technical research insights and sharing, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market carries high risks; please be sure to evaluate independently and bear your own profits and losses.

Bitcoin Buy-side Funds Sound the Alarm! #BTC

BTC Bitcoin spot price has surged from around 64K to 66K in the past two days, prompting many to ask: is this wave driven by genuine capital inflows, or another rally fueled by leverage? Combining several on-chain and exchange indicators, the answer is not difficult to piece together. Short Squeeze Ignites, but Leverage Keeps Adding Funding rates turned negative around 7/18-19, indicating bearish sentiment at the time, which triggered the initial rebound through a short squeeze. Interestingly, the rally did not stop after the squeeze—open interest (OI) climbed in tandem from about 21.2B to a new high of 23B, moving almost in sync with the price. This suggests the short squeeze was merely the fuse, while the sustained upward momentum is supported by continuously incoming new leveraged positions rather than a one-time short covering event. Although funding rates have also risen, they remain in a moderate range and have not yet reached overheated or crowded levels. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/9b6bfbe7-c813-4325-a5d1-c271e10e1aac.avif" /> Spot Buying Has Not Followed The performance of the spot market tells a different story. CryptoQuant’s volume classification shows that spot trading volume has remained in a “Cooling” state since April, including the most recent day—indicating that off-exchange real-money buying of spot is quite limited. In contrast, futures volume has stayed in “Neutral” and “Heating” zones, not cooling with spot but also not flashing overheating signals. In other words, this rally appears more like funds in the derivatives market betting against each other to amplify volatility, with no significant increase in spot market participation.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/a594d247-38dc-4680-aafc-64bdec509a5f.avif" /> Off-Exchange Capital Stays on the Sidelines Net stablecoin flows on exchanges have remained negative recently, indicating that “ammunition” previously parked on exchanges ready to enter is flowing out. However, looking at the total stablecoin market cap over a longer period, there has been no collapse—only slower growth and high-side consolidation. This shows that capital is not fleeing the crypto market en masse but is choosing to temporarily withdraw from exchanges and stay on the sidelines.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/8940d0d8-bb32-47d5-a7b6-91c19dbe03a2.avif" /> ETF Flows: Institutions Are Gradually Re-entering, but Scale Remains Limited Notably, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for the second consecutive week. On 7/20, inflows reached approximately $271M, led by IBIT, with ARK, Fidelity, and other funds also participating. ETF subscriptions ultimately translate into actual buying in the spot market, and IBIT leading the inflows is typically seen as a signal of institutions and long-term capital re-adding exposure rather than mere short-term testing of the waters. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/6a81a255-65e8-4626-a82c-f7062bdac74e.avif" /> However, when compared with the earlier spot volume classification, the overall spot market remains in a “Cooling” state, indicating that the scale of ETF inflows has not been sufficient to push the broader spot market temperature indicator out of the cooling zone. In other words, institutional capital is gradually re-entering via ETFs, but retail and general spot market participation remains relatively subdued, creating a divergence in pace between the two. 💡Conclusion Overall, this rebound toward 66K is more accurately described as: a short-term short squeeze igniting the move, with leveraged positions continuing to add and push prices higher, yet spot buying and off-exchange incremental capital have not followed. Historically, such a structure tends to see rapid corrections when momentum fades, because the price is supported by easily liquidated leveraged positions rather than stickier spot buying. There are no overheating signals yet, but it cannot be called a robust rally—before chasing prices, investors should pay closer attention to whether spot volume and stablecoin flows can truly catch up.

Bitcoin Nearing $67,000: Real Demand or Leverage Mirage? #BTC

近期，一段來自加州理工學院（Caltech）的 YouTube 影片，向我們展示了 Endres 實驗室的一項驚人成就：一個由 6,100 個原子組成的量子位元陣列。這項突破性進展不僅引起了科學界的關注，也讓許多人開始思考：當量子電腦變得如此強大，加密貨幣網路，尤其是比特幣，是否將面臨前所未有的威脅？ <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/ij_cGdu_0Rk"></iframe> 在名為《Inside the Endres Lab with a 6,100-Qubit Array》的影片中，研究團隊向我們揭示了他們如何將 6,100 個銫原子成功地囚禁在光學鑷子中。這不僅僅是數量上的增加，更代表著人類在量子計算硬件開發上邁出了堅實的一步。影片中展示了實驗室的儀器、雷射冷卻原子的過程，以及能夠在陣列中移動原子的聲光偏轉器，這些技術細節讓人們對量子計算的實際運作有了更直觀的理解。 </p

量子電腦對比特幣網路的威脅

Creator other post

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

Bitcoin Breaking Below $80k Looks More Like a Liquidity Sweep, Not a Trend Reversal

Bitcoin Buy-side Funds Sound the Alarm! #BTC

Bitcoin Nearing $67,000: Real Demand or Leverage Mirage? #BTC

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