Bitcoin is currently standing above $78,000, with both technical indicators and on-chain data sending the same signal: an attempt to build a bottom is underway, leaning bullish in direction, but it has not yet faced a real test. Technical Analysis: Both 200MAs Have Been Recovered The price has simultaneously moved above the daily 200MA and the weekly 200MA.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/81f670a3-1231-4fcc-837c-d838038111f3.avif" />After breaking below the weekly 200MA in early June this year, the price oscillated around the 200WMA for the next two months until it broke out strongly on August 19. This pattern also appeared in 2019. Since the 200WMA has always been strong support, historically Bitcoin bear markets have consolidated near this zone for up to about 1 year and 3 months, or as short as about 3 weeks. Therefore, repeated fluctuations in this range can be seen as a common signal of the bottom-building phase.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/bcd2a061-a651-45ca-a8d2-59924a32a42b.avif" />However, there is still one hurdle above: the daily 365MA (around $82K). On September 3, the price once surged to $82,293 and touched this line, only to be pushed back near $79,000. Whether the daily 365MA can hold with a close is the key technical resistance to watch closely next. On-Chain Data: STH/LTH Cost Basis Has Not Yet Been Retested Comparing the STH &amp; LTH Realized Price chart, the current price is above the average cost of both short-term and long-term holders.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f0a4e0ef-f246-436c-af70-5bf26ba63653.avif" />Looking at SOPR data: STH-SOPR is hovering just above 1.00 (short-term buyers are roughly breaking even, market sentiment is neutral), while LTH-SOPR continues to sit at levels representing cycle bottoms (below 1). <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/99ac4124-f86c-476e-9250-72a1efce4085.avif" /><img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/d7e86767-8617-41cf-8d75-976a21bb8576.avif" />Unrealized Profit/Loss <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NUPL sits at 0.32</a> (&gt;0 indicates holders are on average in slight profit), and Market Value to Realized Value <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">MVRV sits at 1.4</a> (&gt;1 indicates the market trades at a premium to realized cost), both falling in the optimistic recovery or transition zone. Together these figures point to: sentiment turning positive, but far from overheated. This is a healthy signal, though it also means the bottom support has not yet undergone a real stress test. Don't Ignore: This Rally Has a Short Squeeze Component The sharp surge from August 19-21 saw over 17,000 BTC in short positions forcibly liquidated, meaning it was partly "squeezed" higher rather than purely built on new buying. Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) hit a new range high positive at the same time, showing spot buyers also joined in. However, this momentum has recently turned negative while price remains supported at high levels, indicating selling pressure and support are still battling without a clear winner.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/48ba5f85-1c98-496d-85db-937a3d8a22fc.avif" />Conclusion The current setup is "technicals turning bullish, on-chain sentiment turning positive, but bottom support and overhead resistance have not yet been truly validated." Recovering the 200-week/daily moving averages is solid progress, and the fact that the STH/LTH cost basis has not been broken is a plus. Yet until the 365MA is reclaimed with a close and spot buying momentum returns, this remains an "attempt to leave the bottom," not a "confirmation of leaving the bottom." The closing prices over the next few weeks will be the most critical window to validate this thesis.

Emerging from the Bottom, But Not Yet Steady 

After Robinhood Chain launched, what attracted the most market attention was not "Robinhood built a chain", but that it quickly generated astonishing on-chain trading volume. Multiple public data sources show that Robinhood Chain has seen approximately $568M–$570M in daily/weekly DEX trading volume; at the same time, the total market cap of on-chain meme coins has exceeded $244M–$259M, with a single-day increase of about 33%. This makes Robinhood Chain's positioning quite interesting: it was originally not built for memes, but designed as an Ethereum-compatible Layer 2 for onchain finance, RWA, and tokenized stocks. However, up to now (in its early stage), the way it exploded in volume resembles Solana — a new chain, low fees, high speculation, rapid retail influx, and meme coins leading the way. In addition, Robinhood Chain officially calls itself a permissionless L2, built on the Arbitrum tech stack, using $ETH as the native gas token, and relying on Ethereum blobs (sharded data availability solution) for DA. Uniswap also became its primary AMM on day one. In other words, Robinhood Chain did not build its own DEX from scratch, but instead connected Robinhood's distribution power to mature EVM and Uniswap liquidity. From the data, it is clear that Uniswap currently handles over 99% of the DEX trading volume. However, this does not mean Robinhood is doing fully decentralized finance (DeFi). Robinhood Chain's execution environment can be open, and AMM trading can occur on-chain; but the issuance, custody, redemption, and compliance transfer restrictions of tokenized stocks and RWA tokens may still be controlled by Robinhood or its partners. What users hold on-chain may not be the underlying stocks themselves, but rather some form of tokenized warrants/rights. So why was it able to scale trading volume so quickly? There are three core reasons: <ul><li>Robinhood comes with built-in retail distribution: it is not a cold-start public chain, but has existing users, brand, trading mindset, and capital entry points.</li></ul> <ul><li>Uniswap day-one integration: directly using a mature AMM, frontend, wallets, and APIs instead of re-educating the market.</li></ul> <ul><li>RWA narrative + meme speculation overlay: the official narrative is tokenized stocks, but early traffic is often ignited first by meme coins, arbitrage, and new-chain wealth effects.</li></ul> Therefore, the most noteworthy question about Robinhood Chain is not "whether it is a meme chain", but: will it become a Solana-style retail trading layer within the Ethereum ecosystem? If so, this would be structurally bullish for $ETH, though price gains may not be reflected first in $ETH itself. Since Robinhood Chain uses $ETH as gas and relies on Ethereum for settlement and data availability, in principle, the more on-chain activity there is, the stronger the narrative of Ethereum as the underlying financial settlement layer becomes. However, value capture will not all flow to $ETH. L2 transaction fees are very low, and blob costs will not generate massive burns like L1 gas wars; sequencer revenue, Orbit fee-sharing, AMM fees, and application-layer revenue are more likely to be captured by Robinhood, Uniswap, and the Arbitrum/$ARB ecosystem. Therefore, my conclusion is: Robinhood Chain is not a purely decentralized public chain, nor is it simply a meme chain; it is more like a brokerage-driven Ethereum L2 financial chain. If it continues to grow, it may bring Solana-style retail speculation, meme coin trading, and high-frequency on-chain behavior into the Ethereum L2 ecosystem. This is bullish for $ETH, but the bigger point to watch is whether Robinhood can truly bring traditional finance users into on-chain trading — that is the most valuable aspect.

Robinhood Chain: Not a Meme Chain, Yet Lives Like Solana. Is This Bullish for $ETH?

SOPR（Spent Output Profit Ratio）is one of the most commonly used Bitcoin profit/loss indicators in on-chain analysis, suitable as the first tool for fans getting started with on-chain analysis.<h2>What is SOPR?</h2>SOPR evaluates the overall profit ratio of market participants by comparing the value of a UTXO（Unspent Transaction Output）at the time it is spent versus when it was created. In simple terms, it can be used to estimate whether the "moved Bitcoin" in the current market is being sold in a profitable or loss-making state.The calculation is straightforward: SOPR = USD value at the time of spending (realized value) ÷ USD value at the time of creation (cost basis), which is "current value ÷ past value".<h2>How to Interpret This Indicator's Value?</h2>When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that on average, coins moved during this time frame are being sold at a profit; SOPR exactly equal to 1 indicates break-even on average; SOPR less than 1 means coins are on average being sold at a loss.This is the most basic and easiest part to explain to fans: SOPR &gt; 1 = market is realizing profits, SOPR &lt; 1 market is selling at a loss.<h2>Trends Are More Meaningful Than Single Values</h2>When SOPR rises, it indicates profits are being realized, coins that were in profit are being transferred to others, which may also mean profit-taking selling pressure is increasing, or overall market conditions for sellers are becoming more favorable; when SOPR falls, it indicates losses are being realized, possibly reflecting increased loss-cutting selling pressure and worsening conditions for sellers.<h2>Practical Applications in Bull and Bear Markets</h2><ul><li>Bull market: As prices rise, more holdings turn profitable, and long-term holders tend to take profits when opportunities arise. If SOPR approaches or falls below 1 after a correction, it indicates that profit-taking holders' coins are in "dormancy," which may be an entry signal; if SOPR continues to rise, it may indicate increasing profit-taking selling pressure, or even suggest approaching a local or macro top.</li><li>Bull market pullback: Newcomers may panic sell, while long-term holders may add to positions during the dip; if profitable coins continue flowing into the market, SOPR will gradually decline; if newcomers engage in capitulation selling, SOPR may approach or drop below 1, while profitable coins remain dormant, reflecting market confidence and subsequent rebound potential.</li><li>Bear market: When supply continues to exceed demand, SOPR may appear elevated. At local lows, investors cutting losses will push SOPR significantly below 1, creating entry opportunities for contrarian traders. During the reversal and recovery phase, SOPR may rise back above 1. If the bear market enters a final capitulation stage, SOPR may remain below 1, indicating that remaining profitable coins continue to stay dormant, setting the stage for a subsequent supply squeeze.</li></ul>---<h2>Simple Analogy for Newbie Readers</h2> SOPR is like the average profit and loss statement for the entire Bitcoin market: every moved Bitcoin tells you whether that coin was sold at a profit or at a loss. A single day's number has little meaning; the focus is on long-term trends and the critical moments when it breaks below or rises above 1, which usually correspond to turning points in market sentiment.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

Last week, on 9/15, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate vote, and BTC briefly fell below $75,000; on 9/16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% (first time since 2023); on 9/18, the BOJ simultaneously raised rates to 1.25% (new high since 1995). Three major bearish factors appeared in the same week, yet BTC did not continue to break downward. On Friday, it returned to $80,000 relying on ETF buying and short covering, briefly reaching above approximately $81,900. Capital Flows: Supported by Single-Day Buying, Not Sustained Inflows BTC ETF net inflows for the week totaled only about $6.2 million. Tuesday and Wednesday combined saw outflows exceeding $740 million, turning positive only thanks to Friday’s $433 million inflow (FBTC contributed approximately $310.7 million). The price reclaiming $80,000 also relied on short covering—on 9/18, approximately $170 million in short positions were liquidated in a single day. Multiple analysts characterized this move as a short squeeze rather than new long positions being built. Capital flows diverged clearly: ETH ETF saw outflows of about $140 million for the week, ending four consecutive weeks of net inflows; Zcash ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $98.2 million, the highest among the 14 crypto ETFs that week; Solana ETF continued positive inflows. BTC and Zcash attracted capital, while ETH was relatively neglected. Three Key Focus Areas This Week Wednesday PMI: Flash PMI for September will be released on 9/23. In addition to the growth components, the input cost and selling price indices are equally critical—if the price components rise, it will reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. Fed officials’ speeches and oil prices: At least 10 officials are scheduled to speak publicly this week. The market will assess whether they hint at another rate hike this year; if oil prices continue to strengthen due to Middle East geopolitical risks, it will also limit the Fed’s room for easing. ETF flows and $80,000 support: Last week’s rebound was driven by single-day capital surges and deleveraging, not yet confirmed as trend-based buying. Watch whether ETF net inflows can stay positive for multiple consecutive days and whether BTC can hold above $80,000, rather than repeatedly touching the level and falling back as seen in August and September. Conclusion Last week was a combination of “bearish news priced in + single-day capital support + short covering,” not yet a signal of fundamentally strengthening conditions. This week’s PMI, density of Fed speeches, and continuity of ETF flows will determine whether the rebound can extend to challenge $83,000 or merely serve as a short-term recovery after deleveraging.

2026/09/20 Bitcoin Weekly Report: Fed and BOJ Both Raise Rates, BTC Returns to $80,000 with ETF and Short Covering

上週有人問我：「是不是該逃頂了？」 首先，我是BTC小貔貅，幾乎不賣比特幣。其次，我也不認為現在是週期頂（IMO，今年目標區間大約在 138K～150K）。 不過既然有朋友關心「該怎麼出場」，我就趁案子空檔，簡單聊一下“逃頂”這件事。這次先用 MVRV 指標來畫一張逃頂路線圖。詳細內容請參考這週的<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xRgA2GY4_14&amp;t=138s" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Youtube影片</a>🍿️。 <img src="https://static.fansone.co/images/caf95915-3538-41b7-9278-a007942d8db9.jpg" />

比特幣逃頂分析

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Emerging from the Bottom, But Not Yet Steady

Robinhood Chain: Not a Meme Chain, Yet Lives Like Solana. Is This Bullish for $ETH?

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

2026/09/20 Bitcoin Weekly Report: Fed and BOJ Both Raise Rates, BTC Returns to $80,000 with ETF and Short Covering

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