SOPR（Spent Output Profit Ratio）is one of the most commonly used Bitcoin profit/loss indicators in on-chain analysis, suitable as the first tool for fans getting started with on-chain analysis.<h2>What is SOPR?</h2>SOPR evaluates the overall profit ratio of market participants by comparing the value of a UTXO（Unspent Transaction Output）at the time it is spent versus when it was created. In simple terms, it can be used to estimate whether the "moved Bitcoin" in the current market is being sold in a profitable or loss-making state.The calculation is straightforward: SOPR = USD value at the time of spending (realized value) ÷ USD value at the time of creation (cost basis), which is "current value ÷ past value".<h2>How to Interpret This Indicator's Value?</h2>When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that on average, coins moved during this time frame are being sold at a profit; SOPR exactly equal to 1 indicates break-even on average; SOPR less than 1 means coins are on average being sold at a loss.This is the most basic and easiest part to explain to fans: SOPR &gt; 1 = market is realizing profits, SOPR &lt; 1 market is selling at a loss.<h2>Trends Are More Meaningful Than Single Values</h2>When SOPR rises, it indicates profits are being realized, coins that were in profit are being transferred to others, which may also mean profit-taking selling pressure is increasing, or overall market conditions for sellers are becoming more favorable; when SOPR falls, it indicates losses are being realized, possibly reflecting increased loss-cutting selling pressure and worsening conditions for sellers.<h2>Practical Applications in Bull and Bear Markets</h2><ul><li>Bull market: As prices rise, more holdings turn profitable, and long-term holders tend to take profits when opportunities arise. If SOPR approaches or falls below 1 after a correction, it indicates that profit-taking holders' coins are in "dormancy," which may be an entry signal; if SOPR continues to rise, it may indicate increasing profit-taking selling pressure, or even suggest approaching a local or macro top.</li><li>Bull market pullback: Newcomers may panic sell, while long-term holders may add to positions during the dip; if profitable coins continue flowing into the market, SOPR will gradually decline; if newcomers engage in capitulation selling, SOPR may approach or drop below 1, while profitable coins remain dormant, reflecting market confidence and subsequent rebound potential.</li><li>Bear market: When supply continues to exceed demand, SOPR may appear elevated. At local lows, investors cutting losses will push SOPR significantly below 1, creating entry opportunities for contrarian traders. During the reversal and recovery phase, SOPR may rise back above 1. If the bear market enters a final capitulation stage, SOPR may remain below 1, indicating that remaining profitable coins continue to stay dormant, setting the stage for a subsequent supply squeeze.</li></ul>---<h2>Simple Analogy for Newbie Readers</h2> SOPR is like the average profit and loss statement for the entire Bitcoin market: every moved Bitcoin tells you whether that coin was sold at a profit or at a loss. A single day's number has little meaning; the focus is on long-term trends and the critical moments when it breaks below or rises above 1, which usually correspond to turning points in market sentiment.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

What is UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output)? Bitcoin's accounting method differs from bank accounts (Account); it doesn't look at the account's "total balance" figure. Instead, every amount of money you receive (no matter how much) is treated as an independent bill stored away. These bills that haven't been spent yet are called UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output). When you want to spend money, you actually take certain UTXOs as inputs, and the change becomes a new UTXO. This mechanism is very important for on-chain analysis, because each UTXO records the time and amount of its "birth." Analysts can track when these UTXOs are spent and whether the spenders are short-term speculators or long-term holders to gauge market sentiment and coin distribution. Many well-known indicators, such as SOPR and HODL Waves, are calculated based on UTXO data. Therefore, changes in the quantity and structure of UTXOs themselves act as a thermometer for on-chain sentiment. Example Explanation:<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/09ca2d38-3ec6-4321-abca-ad209d697feb.avif" />----This chart is called UTXO Count by Script Type. In simple terms, it counts which address technologies are used for the "unspent money" on the Bitcoin blockchain. The earliest is P2PKH (legacy addresses starting with 1), shown as the large orange area. Later, P2SH (starting with 3) supporting multisig appeared, shown in light yellow. After the 2017 SegWit upgrade, the fee-saving native address P2WPKH (starting with bc1q) appeared, shown as the blue area. The really interesting part is the purple surge starting in 2023 — P2TR, or Taproot addresses (starting with bc1p). This surge aligns perfectly with the Ordinals inscription boom. Because inscriptions heavily use Taproot scripts to embed data, pushing the total on-chain UTXO count to a historical high of nearly 190 million. However, from mid-2024 onward, the total UTXO count began to slowly decline. This usually indicates cooling inscription activity, along with large holders or miners starting to perform "UTXO consolidation." In plain terms, it means merging many small change UTXOs into larger ones, preparing in advance for future fee environments. So, on-chain analysis isn't just about transfer amounts; even changes in address technologies can reflect market sentiment and behavior.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - UTXO

Last week, on 9/15, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate vote, and BTC briefly fell below $75,000; on 9/16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% (first time since 2023); on 9/18, the BOJ simultaneously raised rates to 1.25% (new high since 1995). Three major bearish factors appeared in the same week, yet BTC did not continue to break downward. On Friday, it returned to $80,000 relying on ETF buying and short covering, briefly reaching above approximately $81,900. Capital Flows: Supported by Single-Day Buying, Not Sustained Inflows BTC ETF net inflows for the week totaled only about $6.2 million. Tuesday and Wednesday combined saw outflows exceeding $740 million, turning positive only thanks to Friday’s $433 million inflow (FBTC contributed approximately $310.7 million). The price reclaiming $80,000 also relied on short covering—on 9/18, approximately $170 million in short positions were liquidated in a single day. Multiple analysts characterized this move as a short squeeze rather than new long positions being built. Capital flows diverged clearly: ETH ETF saw outflows of about $140 million for the week, ending four consecutive weeks of net inflows; Zcash ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $98.2 million, the highest among the 14 crypto ETFs that week; Solana ETF continued positive inflows. BTC and Zcash attracted capital, while ETH was relatively neglected. Three Key Focus Areas This Week Wednesday PMI: Flash PMI for September will be released on 9/23. In addition to the growth components, the input cost and selling price indices are equally critical—if the price components rise, it will reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. Fed officials’ speeches and oil prices: At least 10 officials are scheduled to speak publicly this week. The market will assess whether they hint at another rate hike this year; if oil prices continue to strengthen due to Middle East geopolitical risks, it will also limit the Fed’s room for easing. ETF flows and $80,000 support: Last week’s rebound was driven by single-day capital surges and deleveraging, not yet confirmed as trend-based buying. Watch whether ETF net inflows can stay positive for multiple consecutive days and whether BTC can hold above $80,000, rather than repeatedly touching the level and falling back as seen in August and September. Conclusion Last week was a combination of “bearish news priced in + single-day capital support + short covering,” not yet a signal of fundamentally strengthening conditions. This week’s PMI, density of Fed speeches, and continuity of ETF flows will determine whether the rebound can extend to challenge $83,000 or merely serve as a short-term recovery after deleveraging.

2026/09/20 Bitcoin Weekly Report: Fed and BOJ Both Raise Rates, BTC Returns to $80,000 with ETF and Short Covering

In recent weeks, if you've been following crypto news, you've probably seen headlines like "Robinhood has launched its own chain." This chain is called Robinhood Chain, and its mainnet was officially launched at the London event The World is Flat on 2026/7/1. Why has it managed to generate such high discussion in a short time? Below, I'll explain its positioning, reasons for its popularity, and the key points you should really focus on in a way that's easy for beginners to understand. <h2>This Isn't Just Another L2—It's a Broker Turning a Chain into Financial Infrastructure</h2> From a technical perspective, Robinhood Chain is an Ethereum Layer 2 built on Arbitrum architecture: transactions are processed on L2 and then settled back to the Ethereum mainnet, resulting in higher efficiency and lower fees. Its Chain ID is 4663, and gas is still paid in ETH. But unlike most new chains that "run traffic first, then fill in the story," its positioning was clear from the start—focused on financial-grade applications, integrating tokenized U.S. stocks, lending, perpetual contracts, and other products into a single on-chain financial system. On the day the mainnet went public, the official launch basically came as a "three-piece set": 1. Next-Generation Stock TokensThese are tokenized U.S. stocks that can be traded 24/7 on-chain and used as collateral in lending markets.2. Robinhood EarnThrough the Morpho protocol, users can lend the USD stablecoin USDG, with an estimated annual yield of around 7% provided by the official team. It also claims partial smart contract risk coverage via Lloyd's insurance (note: this does not mean risk-free).3. Perpetual Contract Trading via LighterThis makes on-chain derivatives trading a usable scenario right from the start. For DEX liquidity, the team partnered with Uniswap as the dedicated market maker, with Pleiades and 1inch also joining. <h2>Why Did Discussion Suddenly Explode? Three Lines Ignited at Once</h2> Looking at this year's timeline makes it clear: - February: Testnet launched; CEO stated it processed around 4 million transactions in the first week- 7/1: Mainnet officially announced- 7/8: CEO Vlad Tenev said the chain is "great for trading memes"- Around 7/13: Chinese-speaking communities began heavily sharing long articles, framing it as "the hottest new public chain of 2026" The real surge in hype usually comes from three overlapping narratives: - Tokenized U.S. stocks / RWA narrative, which naturally attracts institutional attention- After mainnet launch, meme coin and DEX trading volume grew rapidlyFor example, a single meme coin CASHCAT saw nearly $98 million in daily volume, with total network DEX volume around $560 million per day- Communities began speculating heavily: Will they launch a chain token? Is there an airdrop? ⚠️ Important reminder for beginners: As of now, the official team has not announced a native token, and mainnet gas still uses ETH. So-called airdrop databases list this chain as POTENTIAL rather than CONFIRMED—it's essentially "possibility," not "confirmed event." Moreover, the incentives actually mentioned in official press releases are mainly the 11 million $LIT distributed by Lighter to the community—whether Robinhood itself will issue a token is a separate matter. Those treating bridging, testnet interactions, and deposits as a "points farm" are essentially betting entirely on the unknown of whether Robinhood will launch a token. <h2>A Deeper Point Worth Understanding: Entry Capability Often Matters More Than the Chain Itself</h2> Many observers point out that Robinhood's key advantage may not be how fast or cheap the chain is, but the 20-million-plus brokerage users behind it. When DeFi (Uniswap, Morpho, Lighter, etc.) is integrated into the broker app experience, many users may complete on-chain operations "without even realizing they're using blockchain." The public chain recedes to infrastructure level, while the entity controlling distribution and experience is the entry point. Of course, there are also clear drawbacks: Next-generation Stock Tokens are tokenized debt instruments issued in Jersey, excluding U.S. users from the U.S. securities retail market; this is similar to compliance issues faced by products like xStocks and Ondo. <h2>Conclusion: What to Watch, What Not to Chase</h2> Robinhood's parent company Robinhood Markets (HOOD) stock price and Robinhood Chain remain two separate assets; the stock has recently fluctuated around $104 and is not directly tied to on-chain hype. For average investors, instead of chasing a chain token that doesn't yet exist and hasn't been officially confirmed, it's better to view this as licensed broker-level RWA infrastructure bringing "trading, lending, and derivatives" together on-chain and into real use. At this stage, the options that are actually doable and have clearer information are roughly: - HOOD stock itself (traditional market asset)- Stock Tokens / Earn-type yield products available in eligible regions- Lighter tasks and incentives (e.g., $LIT-related activities) As for Robinhood Chain airdrop and token launch rumors, I suggest keeping them on an observation list: wait until the official team actually announces tokenomics and incentive rules before evaluating whether to invest time and cost—avoid treating "potential tasks" as "confirmed airdrops" and going all in. ⚠️ This content reflects the author's personal views only and is not investment advice.

What's Robinhood Chain Recently Popular For? Understand the Current Situation in One Article

Michael Saylor 在 Bloomberg 喊比特幣已經見底、會重回 10 萬美元，但 Strategy 同一週只買了 250 顆比特幣，是今年最小的一筆。反而是 Strive 一週狂買 3,311 顆，還宣布發行年息 15% 的 SATS 優先股，要再募 5 億美元買比特幣。 企業為什麼一直買比特幣？Saylor 的見底論有沒有道理？Strive 的 15% 優先股又是什麼？這集一次講清楚👇 <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/JMCCnbTUDDY?si=hA9J0a37p7khIC0K"></iframe>

比特幣熊市已過，牛市正在開啟中

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Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - UTXO

2026/09/20 Bitcoin Weekly Report: Fed and BOJ Both Raise Rates, BTC Returns to $80,000 with ETF and Short Covering

What's Robinhood Chain Recently Popular For? Understand the Current Situation in One Article

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