SOPR（Spent Output Profit Ratio）is one of the most commonly used Bitcoin profit/loss indicators in on-chain analysis, suitable as the first tool for fans getting started with on-chain analysis.<h2>What is SOPR?</h2>SOPR evaluates the overall profit ratio of market participants by comparing the value of a UTXO（Unspent Transaction Output）at the time it is spent versus when it was created. In simple terms, it can be used to estimate whether the "moved Bitcoin" in the current market is being sold in a profitable or loss-making state.The calculation is straightforward: SOPR = USD value at the time of spending (realized value) ÷ USD value at the time of creation (cost basis), which is "current value ÷ past value".<h2>How to Interpret This Indicator's Value?</h2>When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that on average, coins moved during this time frame are being sold at a profit; SOPR exactly equal to 1 indicates break-even on average; SOPR less than 1 means coins are on average being sold at a loss.This is the most basic and easiest part to explain to fans: SOPR &gt; 1 = market is realizing profits, SOPR &lt; 1 market is selling at a loss.<h2>Trends Are More Meaningful Than Single Values</h2>When SOPR rises, it indicates profits are being realized, coins that were in profit are being transferred to others, which may also mean profit-taking selling pressure is increasing, or overall market conditions for sellers are becoming more favorable; when SOPR falls, it indicates losses are being realized, possibly reflecting increased loss-cutting selling pressure and worsening conditions for sellers.<h2>Practical Applications in Bull and Bear Markets</h2><ul><li>Bull market: As prices rise, more holdings turn profitable, and long-term holders tend to take profits when opportunities arise. If SOPR approaches or falls below 1 after a correction, it indicates that profit-taking holders' coins are in "dormancy," which may be an entry signal; if SOPR continues to rise, it may indicate increasing profit-taking selling pressure, or even suggest approaching a local or macro top.</li><li>Bull market pullback: Newcomers may panic sell, while long-term holders may add to positions during the dip; if profitable coins continue flowing into the market, SOPR will gradually decline; if newcomers engage in capitulation selling, SOPR may approach or drop below 1, while profitable coins remain dormant, reflecting market confidence and subsequent rebound potential.</li><li>Bear market: When supply continues to exceed demand, SOPR may appear elevated. At local lows, investors cutting losses will push SOPR significantly below 1, creating entry opportunities for contrarian traders. During the reversal and recovery phase, SOPR may rise back above 1. If the bear market enters a final capitulation stage, SOPR may remain below 1, indicating that remaining profitable coins continue to stay dormant, setting the stage for a subsequent supply squeeze.</li></ul>---<h2>Simple Analogy for Newbie Readers</h2> SOPR is like the average profit and loss statement for the entire Bitcoin market: every moved Bitcoin tells you whether that coin was sold at a profit or at a loss. A single day's number has little meaning; the focus is on long-term trends and the critical moments when it breaks below or rises above 1, which usually correspond to turning points in market sentiment.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

Bitcoin's recent trend shows the price fluctuating between 76K-81K. Even with the rebound in the past two days, it's only back to early this month. Was the move all for nothing? Actually, not at all. Because if we look at the derivatives market and on-chain data, we'll find this kind of market probably won't last long. First signal: Options Implied Volatility (IV). <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/35917ca2-8b56-416d-aa1a-d8e8b1839728.avif" />Options Implied Volatility (Blue Line) This indicator can be thought of as Bitcoin's version of the fear index. The lower the number, the calmer the market expects things to be. Right now, this line is clearly pressed at the bottom of the chart—an unusually low point in recent years. Low volatility doesn't tell you the direction, only that change is coming. The market is like a spring slowly being compressed; the energy will be released sooner or later. But which direction depends on what events come next. Second signal: Although volatility is low, money keeps flowing in. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/5800f086-7078-4b8a-a6e1-5313a953311b.avif" />BTC Open Interest Increased Over the past three months, total options open interest across the network has risen from $25 billion to over $40 billion, an increase of nearly 70%. The curve has been rising almost in sync with price. In late August, volume even spiked to two or three times the usual level. So while the surface looks calm, things underneath are not. The third signal comes from on-chain data, called Sell-side Risk Ratio.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/658965f9-54c7-40fa-a307-4f7fd9c9f961.avif" />BTC Sell-Side Ratio (Orange Line) Simply put, it asks: "Are holders cashing out large amounts of coins today?" A low number means everyone is staying put and holding. This indicator is also sitting at historical lows. The key point: IV reflects "market expectations for the future." Sell-side Risk Ratio reflects "holders' actual behavior right now." Two completely different data sources are saying the same thing👇 "Whether it's traders or long-term holders, everyone is now holding their breath" But not everyone is just waiting. On-chain data shows that during this recent rebound, the scale of realized profits by new Whales reached the largest in recent years. New Whale Realized Profit<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/3361c0b6-b340-46b6-b112-5d6c4e75bf01.avif" />(Source: Cryptoquant. Free registration allows you to view Bitcoin on-chain indicators) Amid the calm, some smart money has already chosen to take profits. Low volatility, capital not withdrawing, on-chain quiet, yet some have already exited. When these four things come together, history usually shows that the probability of a shift is building—just the direction hasn't been decided yet. For investors, instead of guessing whether the next move is up or down, it's better to treat this period as a reminder: When the market is unusually calm, it's actually time to prepare for risk management rather than letting your guard down!

Bitcoin is relatively calm now, but this market trend may be about to change!

Last week, on 9/15, the CLARITY Act failed in the Senate vote, and BTC briefly fell below $75,000; on 9/16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4% (first time since 2023); on 9/18, the BOJ simultaneously raised rates to 1.25% (new high since 1995). Three major bearish factors appeared in the same week, yet BTC did not continue to break downward. On Friday, it returned to $80,000 relying on ETF buying and short covering, briefly reaching above approximately $81,900. Capital Flows: Supported by Single-Day Buying, Not Sustained Inflows BTC ETF net inflows for the week totaled only about $6.2 million. Tuesday and Wednesday combined saw outflows exceeding $740 million, turning positive only thanks to Friday’s $433 million inflow (FBTC contributed approximately $310.7 million). The price reclaiming $80,000 also relied on short covering—on 9/18, approximately $170 million in short positions were liquidated in a single day. Multiple analysts characterized this move as a short squeeze rather than new long positions being built. Capital flows diverged clearly: ETH ETF saw outflows of about $140 million for the week, ending four consecutive weeks of net inflows; Zcash ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $98.2 million, the highest among the 14 crypto ETFs that week; Solana ETF continued positive inflows. BTC and Zcash attracted capital, while ETH was relatively neglected. Three Key Focus Areas This Week Wednesday PMI: Flash PMI for September will be released on 9/23. In addition to the growth components, the input cost and selling price indices are equally critical—if the price components rise, it will reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance. Fed officials’ speeches and oil prices: At least 10 officials are scheduled to speak publicly this week. The market will assess whether they hint at another rate hike this year; if oil prices continue to strengthen due to Middle East geopolitical risks, it will also limit the Fed’s room for easing. ETF flows and $80,000 support: Last week’s rebound was driven by single-day capital surges and deleveraging, not yet confirmed as trend-based buying. Watch whether ETF net inflows can stay positive for multiple consecutive days and whether BTC can hold above $80,000, rather than repeatedly touching the level and falling back as seen in August and September. Conclusion Last week was a combination of “bearish news priced in + single-day capital support + short covering,” not yet a signal of fundamentally strengthening conditions. This week’s PMI, density of Fed speeches, and continuity of ETF flows will determine whether the rebound can extend to challenge $83,000 or merely serve as a short-term recovery after deleveraging.

2026/09/20 Bitcoin Weekly Report: Fed and BOJ Both Raise Rates, BTC Returns to $80,000 with ETF and Short Covering

Debasement Trade is one of the hottest macro narratives from late August to now. Its core logic is: when investors believe the dollar's purchasing power will continue to erode due to "high debt + high deficits + policy intervention in the bond market", funds will shift to scarce assets (gold, Bitcoin, some crypto assets) as a hedge. <h2>What is Debasement Trade?</h2> <ul><li>Definition: Investors expect fiat currencies (especially the USD) to lose long-term purchasing power, so they reduce holdings in cash and sovereign debt while increasing exposure to "scarce, inflation-resistant, non-sovereign" assets such as gold and Bitcoin.</li><li>Trigger conditions: Expanding fiscal deficits, rising government debt, central banks or treasuries intervening in bond markets to "suppress long-end yields" (e.g., expanding long-term Treasury buybacks), and rising inflation expectations.</li></ul> <h2>Why is it heating up again now? Three catalysts</h2> U.S. federal debt breaks through $40 trillion <ul><li>On 8/18, U.S. Treasury debt officially surpassed $40 trillion, reaching approximately $40.1 trillion by 8/25; the CBO projects a FY2026 deficit of about $1.9 trillion (roughly 6% of GDP), with interest payments and mandatory spending continuing to push deficits higher.</li><li>High debt + high deficits = markets worry that future debt will only be diluted through "inflation + monetization", which is exactly the core narrative of Debasement Trade.</li></ul> <h2>Treasury expands long-term Treasury buybacks, intervening in the yield curve</h2> <ul><li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks aimed at lowering long-end yields; markets interpreted this as a signal of "fiscal dominance", reinforcing expectations of long-term USD depreciation.</li><li>Result: The dollar weakened while gold and Bitcoin strengthened in tandem; Bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000 and gold hit a three-month high in mid-to-late August.</li></ul> <h2>Geopolitical risks and oil prices lift inflation expectations</h2> <ul><li>Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Brent crude returning to $90/barrel have markets concerned that inflation will remain sticky, making it harder for the Fed to ease policy and possibly even prompting rate hikes, further reinforcing the incentive to "hold physical/scarce assets".</li></ul> <h2>Market evidence: Bitcoin-gold correlation surges</h2> <ul><li>Grayscale research shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold rising from near 0% at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from 60%+ to around 33%, indicating Bitcoin is shifting from "tech-stock beta" toward "gold-style hedging".</li><li>BlackRock Digital Assets head Mitchnick also noted that debt and deficit concerns are driving capital toward Bitcoin and gold, strengthening Bitcoin's macro allocation case.</li><li>Bernstein directly lists Debasement Trade as one of Bitcoin's main medium- to long-term upside drivers, projecting a mid-2027 target of $150,000 and $300,000 by 2029.</li></ul> <h2>But Debasement Trade is not a one-way street: Fed hawks are the biggest headwind</h2> <ul><li>Waller's hawkish Jackson Hole speech (emphasizing inflation not yet under control and more work to do) caused markets to reprice September rate-hike odds to around 60%, strengthening the dollar and short-end yields while gold and Bitcoin pulled back in tandem.</li><li>Goldman Sachs scenario analysis indicates that if the Fed does hike, gold could fall back to $4,400, also suppressing short-term momentum for the "gold-Bitcoin Debasement Trade".</li><li>In other words, Debasement Trade is a "long-term structural narrative", but the short term remains dominated by "interest rates and the dollar"; when markets believe the Fed will fight inflation with rate hikes, valuations of scarce assets will first come under pressure.</li></ul> <h2>Implications for Bitcoin: Repricing from "risk asset" to "macro hedge"</h2> <ul><li>If Debasement Trade continues to unfold, Bitcoin will increasingly be viewed as "digital gold" rather than "tech-stock beta", with capital sources expanding from crypto speculators to macro funds and sovereign/institutional allocators.</li><li>Grayscale even highlighted Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash as potential beneficiaries due to their scarcity, decentralization, and censorship resistance, aligning with the need for "non-sovereign value storage".</li><li>Investors should still note: the 90-day correlation is a short-term indicator; if Fed hawkishness persists and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin may still pull back in tandem with gold rather than rising unilaterally.</li></ul> <h2>What should investors watch?</h2> <ul><li>Fiscal side: Whether U.S. Treasury debt continues to climb, whether Treasury buyback policy expands, and whether CBO deficit forecasts are revised upward.</li><li>Monetary side: The Fed's stance on inflation and rate hikes, the September FOMC rate decision, the DXY dollar index, and the 10-year real yield.</li><li>Asset side: Whether Bitcoin-gold correlation remains elevated, whether gold holds key support (e.g., $4,410–$4,320), and whether Bitcoin ETF flows remain net positive.</li></ul> Overall, Debasement Trade provides Bitcoin with a "macro hedge" medium- to long-term narrative, but short-term price action still hinges on the Fed-dollar tug-of-war: if markets believe "the debt problem can ultimately only be solved through inflation", demand for Bitcoin and gold allocations will keep rising. If the Fed insists on combating inflation with rate hikes, scarce assets will first undergo a valuation correction before waiting for the next liquidity inflection point.

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

Michael Saylor 在 Bloomberg 喊比特幣已經見底、會重回 10 萬美元，但 Strategy 同一週只買了 250 顆比特幣，是今年最小的一筆。反而是 Strive 一週狂買 3,311 顆，還宣布發行年息 15% 的 SATS 優先股，要再募 5 億美元買比特幣。 企業為什麼一直買比特幣？Saylor 的見底論有沒有道理？Strive 的 15% 優先股又是什麼？這集一次講清楚👇 <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/JMCCnbTUDDY?si=hA9J0a37p7khIC0K"></iframe>

比特幣熊市已過，牛市正在開啟中

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Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

Bitcoin is relatively calm now, but this market trend may be about to change!

2026/09/20 Bitcoin Weekly Report: Fed and BOJ Both Raise Rates, BTC Returns to $80,000 with ETF and Short Covering

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

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