Bitcoin is currently standing above $78,000, with both technical indicators and on-chain data sending the same signal: an attempt to build a bottom is underway, leaning bullish in direction, but it has not yet faced a real test.
Technical Analysis: Both 200MAs Have Been Recovered
The price has simultaneously moved above the daily 200MA and the weekly 200MA.
After breaking below the weekly 200MA in early June this year, the price oscillated around the 200WMA for the next two months until it broke out strongly on August 19. This pattern also appeared in 2019.
Since the 200WMA has always been strong support, historically Bitcoin bear markets have consolidated near this zone for up to about 1 year and 3 months, or as short as about 3 weeks. Therefore, repeated fluctuations in this range can be seen as a common signal of the bottom-building phase.
However, there is still one hurdle above: the daily 365MA (around $82K). On September 3, the price once surged to $82,293 and touched this line, only to be pushed back near $79,000. Whether the daily 365MA can hold with a close is the key technical resistance to watch closely next.
On-Chain Data: STH/LTH Cost Basis Has Not Yet Been Retested
Comparing the STH & LTH Realized Price chart, the current price is above the average cost of both short-term and long-term holders.
Looking at SOPR data: STH-SOPR is hovering just above 1.00 (short-term buyers are roughly breaking even, market sentiment is neutral), while LTH-SOPR continues to sit at levels representing cycle bottoms (below 1).
Unrealized Profit/Loss NUPL sits at 0.32 (>0 indicates holders are on average in slight profit), and Market Value to Realized Value MVRV sits at 1.4 (>1 indicates the market trades at a premium to realized cost), both falling in the optimistic recovery or transition zone.
Together these figures point to: sentiment turning positive, but far from overheated. This is a healthy signal, though it also means the bottom support has not yet undergone a real stress test.
Don't Ignore: This Rally Has a Short Squeeze Component
The sharp surge from August 19-21 saw over 17,000 BTC in short positions forcibly liquidated, meaning it was partly "squeezed" higher rather than purely built on new buying.
Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) hit a new range high positive at the same time, showing spot buyers also joined in. However, this momentum has recently turned negative while price remains supported at high levels, indicating selling pressure and support are still battling without a clear winner.
Conclusion
The current setup is "technicals turning bullish, on-chain sentiment turning positive, but bottom support and overhead resistance have not yet been truly validated." Recovering the 200-week/daily moving averages is solid progress, and the fact that the STH/LTH cost basis has not been broken is a plus. Yet until the 365MA is reclaimed with a close and spot buying momentum returns, this remains an "attempt to leave the bottom," not a "confirmation of leaving the bottom." The closing prices over the next few weeks will be the most critical window to validate this thesis.