BTC daily transaction count surged from 300,000–400,000 in January this year to 550,000–900,000 in June–July, indicating a clear increase in trading activity.
However, the number of active addresses has not expanded synchronously, and has even slightly contracted.
What does this represent?
It seems more like "existing funds are being reallocated more frequently" rather than "a large influx of new users".
On the exchange side, it is also relatively moderate: net outflow of about 1,000 coins in June, about 6,000 in July. Selling pressure is not heavy, and there is even a slight tendency to accumulate coins, but the intensity is not at an institutional level of aggressive buying.
In terms of valuation, MVRV is between 1.15–1.25, significantly lower than the high point in October last year—no overbought conditions, but there is no evidence yet of incremental funds actively entering the market.
🔮Conclusion: On-chain structure is neutral, with no panic selling of holdings; however, the divergence of "volume increase without price synchronization" reminds us that it is not yet time for a reversal. Other data even suggests that consolidation may extend through the entire month of August. So for now, everyone should be patient, avoid excessive operations, and wait for favorable conditions to arrive.