On September 15, the U.S. Senate’s procedural vote (cloture vote) on the CLARITY Act failed to reach the 60-vote threshold and did not proceed to formal debate. The House version of the bill had already passed in the summer of 2025; this Senate setback is widely viewed as eliminating any chance of advancement in 2026. Following the news, BTC quickly broke below $75,000, with total liquidations across the network reaching approximately $771 million within 24 hours, of which long positions accounted for about $569 million—indicating a clear deleveraging move. What is Exchange Netflow? Exchange Netflow is one of the most fundamental on-chain metrics, calculated as “total BTC flowing into exchanges” minus “total BTC flowing out of exchanges.” A positive value indicates more BTC is being deposited into exchanges, generally interpreted as increased potential selling pressure; a negative value (shown in red) indicates net outflows, typically interpreted as coins moving into self-custody or long-term holding, with lower short-term selling intent. CryptoQuant separates exchanges into Spot and Derivative categories for separate tracking. This distinction is critical—net flows between the two categories do not always move in sync, and that divergence is exactly what makes this event noteworthy. Derivatives Exchanges: Margin and Liquidation Signals <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/406c19ad-f2d5-4be7-9349-b616b88f642f.avif" />Observing derivatives exchange netflow on the day of the CLARITY Act vote failure, the single-day net inflow expanded sharply, standing out as the most prominent reading in the past month. This anomaly should not be simply read as “large-scale spot selling in the derivatives market.” A more reasonable explanation lies in the margin mechanism: when a sharp price drop triggers cascading liquidations, leveraged traders rush to deposit BTC to top up margin and avoid being liquidated; at the same time, collateral seized from forced long liquidations is credited to exchange wallets. These two forces combined cause derivatives exchange netflow to swing sharply positive—timing that aligns exactly with the $771 million in liquidations (with longs dominating). Spot Exchanges: No Panic Inflows <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/2e852cde-8824-4845-b5e5-7380942b5281.avif" />In the same time window, spot exchange netflow turned negative (outflows). If the decline had been driven by panic selling from spot holders, we would expect spot exchange net inflows to increase (coins deposited for sale). Instead, the data moved in the opposite direction—BTC continued to leave spot exchanges. The size of these outflows is comparable to other notable outflow periods recently, indicating that spot holdings kept moving during the drop, but the direction was withdrawals rather than deposits for selling. Conclusion: Deleveraging Was the Main Driver, Not Spot Panic Selling Viewed together, the signal structure of this decline is clear: the impact originated primarily from forced liquidations and margin calls in the derivatives market. Spot exchanges did not see a simultaneous surge in selling-related inflows, and the coin structure remained relatively stable. This drop was driven by deleveraging, not spot panic selling pressure. This distinction has practical implications for judging the strength of any subsequent rebound. If spot continues to show net outflows and the derivatives inflow spike proves to be a one-time liquidation event, the decline is more likely a short-term deleveraging move rather than the start of a trend reversal. However, if spot also shifts to sustained net inflows in the coming days, it would be necessary to reassess whether spot-side selling pressure is emerging. Looking at netflow from only one exchange category can easily lead to misjudgment; separating spot and derivatives data reveals the full story of coin movements.

CLARITY Act Vote Fails, Divergence in Coin Flows Between Derivatives and Spot Exchanges

即將來臨的10月，是幣圈人看好的“Uptober”。真的是這樣？Or，Uptober 只是迷因呢？今天上線的Youtube 影片，讓我從數據出發，透過分析框架理解Uptober是否會成真。 <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/S6XApI_uF3M?si=daN909cC9fui43oa"></iframe>

Uptober 🚀是規律還是迷因？用鏈上數據預判比特幣 10 月走勢 #BTC

In the cryptocurrency market, the biggest difference in mindset between retail investors and institutions often lies in how they interpret "bearish news." When the market is flooded with bad news, but prices refuse to make new lows, community sentiment usually views it as a random "bounce" or meme-like frenzy; however, in the eyes of professional traders, this is a highly indicative market state—bearish absorption (Absorption). 1. The Truth Behind No Drop on Bad News: From Catalyst-Driven to "Seller Exhaustion" The crypto market has recently faced multiple bearish blows: from panic rumors that MicroStrategy might sell Bitcoin, to Zcash being flagged by AI for serious privacy vulnerabilities, to internal Ethereum community debates over moral purity and gambling behavior. Yet the market's actual movement has delivered a resounding slap to the bears: major tokens like BTC, ETH, and ZEC not only avoided new lows but staged significant rebounds. This shows the market has transitioned from the "bearish catalyst-driven selling" phase to the "bearish absorption" phase. In simple terms, funds that wanted to sell or were forced to stop-loss have exited, resulting in Seller Exhaustion. At this point, any new bearish news is merely striking a reinforced wall, unable to create new depths. When bad news can no longer produce lower lows, smart money should stop waiting for a textbook "ultimate crash" and recognize that the market bottom is being quietly built through "absorption." 2. Macro Liquidity: The Real Driver Overlooked by the Community Crypto Twitter often attributes price rises to some KOL's tweet or community meme. In reality, the true core driver behind this price resilience is the quietly improving macro environment (Macro Relief). As U.S. CPI and PPI data cool, market anxiety over Fed rate hikes has been greatly eased. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETF flows have shifted from outflows to steady inflows. Ignoring the macro economy and global liquidity easing while attributing the rally solely to sentiment rebound would severely misjudge the market's next phase. Liquidity is the water, and token prices are merely the boats floating on it. 3. Distribution Over Purity: Structural Rotation in the EVM Ecosystem In this rebound, Ethereum (ETH) and its L2 ecosystem have demonstrated strong structural advantages. Interestingly, this contrasts sharply with internal Ethereum cultural conflicts. Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin recently expressed concern over prediction markets increasingly turning into "gaming and gambling," sparking community debate on whether Ethereum has lost its "decentralized moral high ground." Yet on the other side of the market comes the most substantive news: traditional internet brokerage giant Robinhood announced it will build a dedicated L2 chain on Arbitrum for tokenization (RWA) and settlement of mainstream financial assets. This sends an extremely clear signal: distribution channels matter far more than ideological purity. Regardless of community debates on moral issues, Web2 giants and mainstream financial institutions still prioritize the EVM (Ethereum Virtual Machine) ecosystem when choosing settlement paths for tokenized assets. This substantive application landing and user onboarding is the core supporting long-term value of EVM and L2 infrastructure. By comparison, Zcash's reflexive surge after the privacy vulnerability news due to "bad news priced in" is merely short-term narrative alchemy, not a healthy long-term asset choice. 4. Future Outlook and Trading Strategy How should investors and traders position themselves in the current market landscape? Embrace EVM and L2 Infrastructure: Prioritize ecosystems with strong financial distribution channel support (such as ETH, Arbitrum, Base, etc.), rather than blindly chasing privacy coins rebounding because vulnerabilities didn't kill them (such as ZEC). Ignore Noise, Focus on Capital Flows: Detach attention from celebrity gossip and panic rhetoric, closely monitor macro rate expectations and actual ETF inflows—this is the market's central nervous system. Guard Against Excessive Optimism: While "bearish absorption" has established a short-term bottom, if macro improvement slows and market funding rates become excessively high, beware of the risk that the market shifts from "bearish absorption" to "retail overconfidence" and chasing highs. Conclusion: This round's dawn does not belong to the believers shouting slogans in the comments, but to the rational allocators who see the essence of capital flows and focus on infrastructure distribution channels. Distinguishing between "memes" and "mechanisms" is what allows one to go further in the next wave.

No Drop on Bad News. Has the Market Turned?

Bitcoin and Ethereum have rebounded significantly since the weekend, with gains of 6.7% and nearly 5% respectively. Market sentiment indicators have warmed in tandem to the "Extreme Greed" zone. More notably, spot ETF fund flow data shows institutional capital making large-scale replenishments on the latest trading day Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a single-day net inflow of as much as $999 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT contributing $381.4 million, Fidelity FBTC contributing $238.8 million, and ARK ARKB contributing $289.1 million. This equates to buying pressure of nearly 12,000 BTC. However, ETF fund inflows are only one piece of the puzzle driving the rally. Key drivers behind this rally: Spot buying turns strong first: Real buying support appears first, followed by shorts being forced to cover.Short squeeze amplifies gains: Single-day Bitcoin short liquidations reached $345 million, acting as an accelerator. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/84e3268e-1316-4b73-a092-2bbc4015d7b8.avif" /> Overhead historical trapped-supply zone is relatively thin: URPD shows low historical transaction density in the $80,000–$85,000 range, meaning limited supply resistance and allowing BTC to cross quickly; it is now entering the next major resistance band: $85,000–$95,000.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f40bb036-52f5-4f44-b9ad-e42136f619b8.avif" />Price outcome: Bitcoin jumped from $81,146 to $86,600, a single-day gain of 6.7%. Behind it lies the triple resonance of “ETF spot demand + short liquidations + thin historical supply.” The next focus will shift higher: To effectively break through the $85K–$95K zone, ETF fund flows must continue to follow through and push prices higher. However, the Coinbase Premium Gap has turned negative, signaling a short-term cooling of U.S. spot demand. The market will closely watch U.S. equity trading hours to see whether ETFs can once again deliver strong single-day inflows.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/95819fc8-3bc0-4049-9bc7-e0f86c8c7f2d.avif" />（Data source: Crypto Quant）

Bitcoin Rebounds, ETF Funds See Nearly $1 Billion Inflow

比特幣已經在 8.25萬到8.73萬美元之間箱型整理兩週，週一天漲到8.67萬，正在測試箱頂！波動率指標BBWP在10/1跌到極低值後開始回升。本週有機會突破嗎？ 這集用日線技術分析 (Fair Value Bands、BBWP)、URPD籌碼分布，以及Coinbase溢價，判斷比特幣這週突破的機率。並整理本週ISM服務業PMI、FOMC會議紀要、美債標售等重要事件。 <iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/E-VI9QYGHUo"></iframe>

比特幣卡在8.5萬兩週了! 突破87K還是回測82K?

ผลงานอื่นของผู้สร้าง

CLARITY Act Vote Fails, Divergence in Coin Flows Between Derivatives and Spot Exchanges

Uptober 🚀是規律還是迷因？用鏈上數據預判比特幣 10 月走勢 #BTC

No Drop on Bad News. Has the Market Turned?

Bitcoin Rebounds, ETF Funds See Nearly $1 Billion Inflow

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