Bitcoin's volatility has significantly increased these days, with the price surging from 63K, where short squeezes drove the rise, all the way above 80K. This article compiles today's cross-comparison of technical aspects and on-chain data, incorporating the current market focus on fiscal easing background, to provide readers with a judgment framework.
Pattern Turns Bullish, But Not Fully Confirmed Yet
On the weekly chart, a right-side inverse head and shoulders pattern has formed, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder neatly aligned, and the price standing above the neckline. However, the band indicator (reflecting market consensus on the trend) has not yet converged, indicating insufficient market agreement on this direction; moreover, this week's weekly candles are not yet complete, so strictly speaking, pattern confirmation requires an actual weekly candle closing above the neckline.
Profit-taking Scale Is Large and Has Continued for Several Days
Over the six days from 8/19 to 8/24, Net Realized Profit and Loss remained positive continuously, with a rough total estimate of around 4.5-4.8B USD, and peaks exceeding 1.4B each on 8/21 and 8/24. This indicates that during this rally, the scale of profit-taking from previously trapped positions has been substantial, not a one-off event but a persistent source of selling pressure.
But Buying Power Is Also Strengthening Simultaneously
This is today's most critical finding: combining Spot CVD, Realized Cap, ETF Netflow, and stablecoin exchange reserves shows buying power is indeed strengthening, in a combination rarely seen in the past three months.
Two minor warning signs need noting: Spot CVD has cooled slightly in the latest one or two days, while USDC exchange reserves have increased rather than decreased, suggesting some funds remain in a "preparing to enter" stage without yet actively buying. The overall direction leans bullish but has not reached an "unreserved" level.
Framework for Readers: Facing the Upcoming Easing Environment
The market is also watching discussions of the US Treasury potentially expanding debt buybacks and releasing liquidity. If this direction materializes, it would historically be a favorable macro backdrop for risk assets like Bitcoin, but this does not mean ignoring current structural risks.
A more prudent framework is to separate "favorable funding conditions" from "whether the short-term position structure is healthy." Easing is a medium-to-long-term tailwind, but this rally simultaneously features the tug-of-war between "large-scale profit-taking" and "strengthening buying power"; whether prices can hold steady short-term depends on which side gives way first—if buying power can continue absorbing sell pressure from profit-taking (CVD and Realized Cap keep rising), the easing tailwind will make this structural strengthening more solid; but if buying momentum cools like in the latest one or two days, even with a shift toward easing, a short-term correction to retest support (67-70K cost zone, 76-78K new position accumulation zone) remains possible.
For readers, rather than fixating on "whether to chase highs," a more practical approach is to treat these indicators as a dashboard for ongoing tracking, using whether the structure is strengthening to judge positions, instead of being led solely by price or macro narratives.