On July 9, Swift announced something not exactly groundbreaking, but worth serious attention from crypto newcomers: their blockchain ledger is ready for initial use. Including ANZ, BNP Paribas, BNY, Citi, DBS, HSBC, MUFG, Standard Chartered, UBS, and Wells Fargo, 17 banks from six continents will begin real transaction pilots. The first use case is supporting 24/7 cross-border payments with tokenized deposits issued by banks. What Does This Actually Mean Conclusion first: this is a medium- to long-term bullish factor for the crypto market, but not the kind of event where the entire market surges immediately upon the news. The key point is that Swift’s ledger is a shared ledger built within the regulated banking system. While funds can move at night or on weekends, final settlement still occurs through existing systems. In other words, Swift is not moving funds directly onto a public chain, nor is any cryptocurrency suddenly gaining real cash flow. The real significance lies in: global mainstream banks have formally moved “tokenized deposits, 24/7 cross-border payments, and programmable money” from proof-of-concept to operational pilot stage. This serves as an endorsement of credibility and legitimacy for the entire industry—blockchain is beginning to be treated by major financial institutions as a “tool for interbank payments and liquidity orchestration,” rather than merely a toy for issuing assets. Who Might Benefit Short-term markets usually first hype assets whose narratives are closest, but true value capture depends on who can actually enter Swift’s or banks’ tech stacks. Directions the market is likely to associate include: <ul><li>Ethereum ecosystem and L2: If the bank-grade ledger’s tech stack relates to EVM, it becomes a narrative booster.</li><li>Linea: Because the early prototype concept involved Consensys, the narrative is most direct, though market cap is small and volatility high; actual adoption depth needs monitoring.</li><li>Chainlink: Cross-chain interoperability, oracles, and on-chain financial data are natural associations, but this announcement itself does not equal direct adoption.</li><li>Hedera, XRP, and other enterprise-grade DLT/cross-border payment narrative assets may be emotionally linked, but it must be clarified: Swift is building a regulated shared ledger among banks, not directly adopting an existing public chain token for settlement.</li></ul> Is This Bullish or Competitive for Stablecoins This development is a double-edged sword for stablecoins. On one hand, it proves that “24/7 digital currency settlement” is now a capability banks must add, indirectly expanding market acceptance of on-chain dollars and tokenized deposits. On the other hand, if major banks can issue and interoperate tokenized deposits through the Swift network themselves, some corporate cross-border payment needs may no longer rely on public-chain stablecoins. What Signals Should Newcomers Watch Instead of guessing which coin will rise, focus on these key fundamental indicators: <ul><li>Will this ledger ultimately be deployed on a public chain/L2, or a closed permissioned ledger? This determines whether actual on-chain fees or infrastructure revenue will emerge.</li><li>How large is the actual transaction volume in the 17-bank pilot? Without real capital flows, it remains just an adoption narrative story.</li><li>Will there be formal technical integrations with oracles, cross-chain messaging, identity verification, or compliance service providers? This will determine whether related tokens move from “narrative” to “revenue.”</li><li>Will tokenized deposits become interoperable with stablecoins in the future, or remain an internal bank-system solution?</li></ul> Summary Swift’s move is a confirmatory signal in the institutionalization process of the crypto industry—worth noting, but not worth overreacting to. In the short term, watch for narrative-driven moves in ETH/L2, Linea, $LINK, and RWA/stablecoin infrastructure-related stories; however, if these tokens already rallied before the announcement, beware of “buy the rumor, sell the news” pullbacks. Institutional news typically first drives valuation imagination, while real fundamental validation often takes much longer to materialize.

Swift Blockchain Ledger Officially Launched: Bullish Signal or Just Hype for the Crypto Market?

BTC Bitcoin spot price has surged from around 64K to 66K in the past two days, prompting many to ask: is this wave driven by genuine capital inflows, or another rally fueled by leverage? Combining several on-chain and exchange indicators, the answer is not difficult to piece together. Short Squeeze Ignites, but Leverage Keeps Adding Funding rates turned negative around 7/18-19, indicating bearish sentiment at the time, which triggered the initial rebound through a short squeeze. Interestingly, the rally did not stop after the squeeze—open interest (OI) climbed in tandem from about 21.2B to a new high of 23B, moving almost in sync with the price. This suggests the short squeeze was merely the fuse, while the sustained upward momentum is supported by continuously incoming new leveraged positions rather than a one-time short covering event. Although funding rates have also risen, they remain in a moderate range and have not yet reached overheated or crowded levels. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/9b6bfbe7-c813-4325-a5d1-c271e10e1aac.avif" /> Spot Buying Has Not Followed The performance of the spot market tells a different story. CryptoQuant’s volume classification shows that spot trading volume has remained in a “Cooling” state since April, including the most recent day—indicating that off-exchange real-money buying of spot is quite limited. In contrast, futures volume has stayed in “Neutral” and “Heating” zones, not cooling with spot but also not flashing overheating signals. In other words, this rally appears more like funds in the derivatives market betting against each other to amplify volatility, with no significant increase in spot market participation.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/a594d247-38dc-4680-aafc-64bdec509a5f.avif" /> Off-Exchange Capital Stays on the Sidelines Net stablecoin flows on exchanges have remained negative recently, indicating that “ammunition” previously parked on exchanges ready to enter is flowing out. However, looking at the total stablecoin market cap over a longer period, there has been no collapse—only slower growth and high-side consolidation. This shows that capital is not fleeing the crypto market en masse but is choosing to temporarily withdraw from exchanges and stay on the sidelines.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/8940d0d8-bb32-47d5-a7b6-91c19dbe03a2.avif" /> ETF Flows: Institutions Are Gradually Re-entering, but Scale Remains Limited Notably, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for the second consecutive week. On 7/20, inflows reached approximately $271M, led by IBIT, with ARK, Fidelity, and other funds also participating. ETF subscriptions ultimately translate into actual buying in the spot market, and IBIT leading the inflows is typically seen as a signal of institutions and long-term capital re-adding exposure rather than mere short-term testing of the waters. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/6a81a255-65e8-4626-a82c-f7062bdac74e.avif" /> However, when compared with the earlier spot volume classification, the overall spot market remains in a “Cooling” state, indicating that the scale of ETF inflows has not been sufficient to push the broader spot market temperature indicator out of the cooling zone. In other words, institutional capital is gradually re-entering via ETFs, but retail and general spot market participation remains relatively subdued, creating a divergence in pace between the two. 💡Conclusion Overall, this rebound toward 66K is more accurately described as: a short-term short squeeze igniting the move, with leveraged positions continuing to add and push prices higher, yet spot buying and off-exchange incremental capital have not followed. Historically, such a structure tends to see rapid corrections when momentum fades, because the price is supported by easily liquidated leveraged positions rather than stickier spot buying. There are no overheating signals yet, but it cannot be called a robust rally—before chasing prices, investors should pay closer attention to whether spot volume and stablecoin flows can truly catch up.

Bitcoin Nearing $67,000: Real Demand or Leverage Mirage? #BTC

BTC daily transaction count surged from 300,000–400,000 in January this year to 550,000–900,000 in June–July, indicating a clear increase in trading activity. <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/4ffffb4e-3bc1-4527-9eaf-dc0567775db7.avif" />However, the number of active addresses has not expanded synchronously, and has even slightly contracted.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/33ad0c29-df48-4cb8-92fb-e803dadd32bc.avif" />What does this represent? It seems more like "existing funds are being reallocated more frequently" rather than "a large influx of new users". On the exchange side, it is also relatively moderate: net outflow of about 1,000 coins in June, about 6,000 in July. Selling pressure is not heavy, and there is even a slight tendency to accumulate coins, but the intensity is not at an institutional level of aggressive buying.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f1fb1825-0983-446a-a3c7-854b4769ce34.avif" />In terms of valuation, MVRV is between 1.15–1.25, significantly lower than the high point in October last year—no overbought conditions, but there is no evidence yet of incremental funds actively entering the market.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/ad7a6027-e081-4ed5-b735-401ebe421055.avif" />🔮Conclusion: On-chain structure is neutral, with no panic selling of holdings; however, the divergence of "volume increase without price synchronization" reminds us that it is not yet time for a reversal. Other data even suggests that consolidation may extend through the entire month of August. So for now, everyone should be patient, avoid excessive operations, and wait for favorable conditions to arrive.

BTC's Road to Recovery: Trading Volume Increases, But Price Lags Behind #BTC

What is UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output)? Bitcoin's accounting method differs from bank accounts (Account); it doesn't look at the account's "total balance" figure. Instead, every amount of money you receive (no matter how much) is treated as an independent bill stored away. These bills that haven't been spent yet are called UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output). When you want to spend money, you actually take certain UTXOs as inputs, and the change becomes a new UTXO. This mechanism is very important for on-chain analysis, because each UTXO records the time and amount of its "birth." Analysts can track when these UTXOs are spent and whether the spenders are short-term speculators or long-term holders to gauge market sentiment and coin distribution. Many well-known indicators, such as SOPR and HODL Waves, are calculated based on UTXO data. Therefore, changes in the quantity and structure of UTXOs themselves act as a thermometer for on-chain sentiment. Example Explanation:<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/09ca2d38-3ec6-4321-abca-ad209d697feb.avif" />----This chart is called UTXO Count by Script Type. In simple terms, it counts which address technologies are used for the "unspent money" on the Bitcoin blockchain. The earliest is P2PKH (legacy addresses starting with 1), shown as the large orange area. Later, P2SH (starting with 3) supporting multisig appeared, shown in light yellow. After the 2017 SegWit upgrade, the fee-saving native address P2WPKH (starting with bc1q) appeared, shown as the blue area. The really interesting part is the purple surge starting in 2023 — P2TR, or Taproot addresses (starting with bc1p). This surge aligns perfectly with the Ordinals inscription boom. Because inscriptions heavily use Taproot scripts to embed data, pushing the total on-chain UTXO count to a historical high of nearly 190 million. However, from mid-2024 onward, the total UTXO count began to slowly decline. This usually indicates cooling inscription activity, along with large holders or miners starting to perform "UTXO consolidation." In plain terms, it means merging many small change UTXOs into larger ones, preparing in advance for future fee environments. So, on-chain analysis isn't just about transfer amounts; even changes in address technologies can reflect market sentiment and behavior.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - UTXO

<h2>What is NUPL?</h2> In addition to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), Bitcoin on-chain analysis has another classic indicator—NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss), which is also a commonly used tool for judging market sentiment and capturing cycle turning points.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/7b3e2e43-49ee-43ad-a1b2-c7613c7af460.avif" /><blockquote>NUPL is calculated as: (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ Market Cap.</blockquote> Here is a brief explanation of two terms: <ul><li>Market Cap: The market capitalization calculated by multiplying the current Bitcoin price by the circulating supply, representing the valuation the market is currently willing to assign to Bitcoin.</li></ul> <ul><li>Realized Cap: Not calculated using the current price, but by taking the price at the last time each unspent Bitcoin on-chain was moved, multiplying by the quantity, and summing them all up, representing the concept of the market’s “average cost basis.”</li></ul> Therefore, NUPL essentially answers one question: Compared to the market’s average holding cost, is the current market valuation showing large profits or large losses? <h2>How to Interpret the Values?</h2> Imagine that at this moment, everyone in the market simultaneously settles their coins at the current market price:

<h2>什麼是 NUPL？</h2> 比特幣鏈上分析除了 SOPR （Spent Output Profit Ratio，已花費產出利潤比）之外，還有另一個經典指標——NUPL（Net Unrealized Profit and Loss，淨未實現損益），同樣是判斷市場情緒、抓週期轉折點的常用工具。<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/7b3e2e43-49ee-43ad-a1b2-c7613c7af460.avif" /><blockquote>NUPL 的算法是：（市值 − 已實現市值）÷ 市值。</blockquote> 這裡先簡單解釋兩個名詞： <ul><li>市值（Market Cap）：用現在的比特幣價格乘上流通量算出來的市值，代表市場現在願意給比特幣的估值。</li></ul> <ul><li>已實現市值（Realized Cap）：不是用現在的價格算，而是把鏈上每一筆尚未被花費的比特幣 最後一次被移動時的價格， 乘上該筆數量後全部加總，代表全市場的「平均成本」的概念。</li></ul> 所以 NUPL 本質上在回答一個問題：現在市場的估值，跟全市場的平均持幣成本相比，是賺很多還是賠很多？ <h2>數值怎麼解讀？</h2> 假設現在這一刻，全市場所有人同時把手上的幣，用當下的市價結算： </p

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - NUPL

What is NUPL?

How to Interpret the Values?

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