Recently, $BTC once dipped below 80,000 USD, and market sentiment instantly turned tense. Some are nervous again -- is the trend about to reverse? But if we break down this volatility, I’m more inclined to see it as a “liquidity sweep” and a flush of leveraged positions rather than a structural weakening or trend reversal. 1) Breaking below a round-number level feels more like sweeping stops and leveraged positions Round numbers like 80,000 naturally attract clusters of stop-loss orders and leveraged positions. Once price quickly breaks below, a chain reaction can occur: <ul><li>Stop-losses triggered</li><li>Leveraged positions liquidated</li><li>Short-term “sharp drop” panic sets in</li></ul> But the key point is: price did not collapse all the way down; it quickly returned near the 80,000 USD level.This pattern of “break → sweep → pull back” usually resembles consolidation within an uptrend rather than a typical sign of trend weakness. 2) Capital still favors BTC: dominance near 59% is a key signal Another point I find more worth watching: capital remains clearly concentrated in $BTC rather than broadly rotating into altcoins. From an overall market-structure perspective: <ul><li>- Total crypto market cap is around 2.7 trillion USD</li><li>- Yet $BTC dominance remains close to 59%</li></ul> This shows the market is not “completely risk-on,” but rather that funds prefer to park first in the most liquid and consensus-strong asset. In fact, this structure is often healthier than “every coin surging together.” The phase of indiscriminate pumping is usually late-stage euphoria, while the current setup looks more like “core assets leading with a more orderly pace.” 3) Leverage sentiment is warm but not out of control: funding rates still in a manageable range The leverage side can also help us determine whether this drop is a “trend break” or simply “a washout before the next leg up.” Perpetual-contract funding rates remain positive, indicating bullish sentiment and participation, but they have not reached the stage of: <ul><li>Overcrowded chasing</li><li>Extreme overheating</li><li>The imbalanced state typical of a bubble’s final phase</li></ul> In other words: It is normal for this pullback to flush out some high-chasing longs, but it does not mean the overall trend has ended. The situations that truly warrant caution usually come with more severe funding-rate imbalances, clearly amplified spot selling pressure, or weakening BTC dominance. 4) On-chain shows no panic: the move is more “market structure” than “demand collapse” Looking at on-chain data, there are also no typical panic signatures: <ul><li>Transaction counts remain roughly stable</li><li>Active addresses have not suddenly collapsed</li><li>Fees have not spiked or caused network congestion</li></ul> This suggests the short-term volatility is more likely driven by “position adjustments and market structure” rather than a sudden collapse in real demand. Many people are used to mapping price moves directly onto some on-chain narrative, but here the dominant factors are more likely: Leveraged positions + round-number stop sweeps + BTC’s role as the first stop for risk capital. 5) The macro environment also limits broad capital rotation: BTC acts more like a “safe haven within risk assets” Zooming out, high yields, a relatively strong dollar, and risk assets not yet clearly turning bullish all make it harder for speculative capital to flow en masse into small-cap altcoins. By contrast, $BTC, because of its: <ul><li>Scarcity</li><li>Liquidity</li><li>Consensus strength</li></ul> Ends up functioning more like a “safe haven inside risk assets” that funds are willing to hold first. This also explains why the market currently shows BTC leading while altcoins lag. Conclusion: This looks more like healthy consolidation than “80k broken = bear market” To sum up my view in one sentence: We are still in an expansion phase led by BTC. The break below 80k is more like clearing excess leverage and stops before resuming the uptrend rhythm. The truly important things to watch going forward are not “whether it briefly breaks some precise number,” but rather: <ul><li>Whether $BTC can hold above the 78,000–80,000 USD zone</li><li>Whether funding rates will overheat or become imbalanced quickly</li><li>Whether BTC dominance can remain strong</li></ul> If it reclaims 80k, this dip could even be viewed as a “healthy accumulation” process; conversely, if we see funding rates keep rising, spot demand lagging, and structural imbalances, then more caution on short-term pullback risk would be warranted. In short, rather than “80k broken, so the rally is over,” I prefer to interpret it as:The market is still in an uptrend, just becoming more selective in its pace. Under this structure, $BTC remains the core asset most worth watching. ⚠️This post is for discussion only and is not investment advice.

Bitcoin Breaking Below $80k Looks More Like a Liquidity Sweep, Not a Trend Reversal

The Bitcoin community has recently been discussing a proposal called BIP-110, which many newcomers may not have heard of. This article explains in the simplest way what it is, its current progress, and its actual impact on ordinary holders. <h2>What is BIP (Bitcoin Improvement Proposal)-110?</h2> BIP-110 (official name Reduced Data Temporary Softfork, abbreviated RDTS) is a proposed soft fork to limit the amount of arbitrary data that can be carried in Bitcoin transactions. Notably, this proposal was authored by anonymous developer Dathon Ohm and was initially proposed in October 2025 under the name BIP-444 before being officially renumbered. An interesting detail: BIP numbering editor Mark "Murch" Erhardt publicly commented that it is "an ill-considered and unusually rushed soft fork proposal" while assigning the number, but since it met the database inclusion criteria, it was still numbered. Therefore, in the Bitcoin community, "getting a BIP number" does not imply community endorsement. Specific restrictions include: <ul><li>OP_RETURN limit restored to an 83-byte cap</li><li>Taproot mechanisms (commonly used for inscriptions): restrictions on Taproot annex, control block, and certain Tapscript function usage</li><li>New output size: most new transaction outputs limited to 34 bytes</li><li>Data push generally limited to 256 bytes</li><li>Spending undefined witness or Tapleaf versions will be considered invalid</li></ul> <h2>Why does this proposal exist?</h2> The root of this matter traces back to the Taproot upgrade in 2021: <ul><li>After the Taproot upgrade activated in 2021, developers could embed images, text, and other data directly into Bitcoin transactions</li><li>In 2022, "inscription" technology emerged, storing arbitrary data in the witness field of transactions</li><li>In early 2023, Ordinals popularized this technology, bringing images and NFT-like assets onto the Bitcoin chain, followed by the Runes protocol further driving meme coin minting on the Bitcoin chain</li></ul> Supporters believe these non-financial uses occupy significant block space and deviate from Bitcoin's original intent as "peer-to-peer electronic cash," so they hope to force these uses out by restricting data size. <h2>Proposal activation mechanism and current progress</h2> Bitcoin's past rule changes have almost always required "near-unanimous miner" (usually 95%) agreement to activate. However, BIP-110 is different—it uses UASF (User-Activated Soft Fork), which simply means: It does not require full miner agreement; as long as a group of "users/nodes" insist on using the new rules, they will begin enforcing them themselves—miners who do not follow will have their blocks considered invalid by this group. The threshold drops from the traditional 95% to 55%, deliberately lowering the difficulty of "convincing miners." Three key time points, understood via a timeline I'll use a simple analogy: imagine this is a "two-week round" vote, with each round tallying how many miners raise their hands in support.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f56f3fd3-f0b6-4742-8660-13c2a8eb16d6.avif" />Four phases: <ol><li>Signaling period begins (2025/12/1)—miners can optionally signal support in blocks; this is an "observation period" with no enforcement.</li><li>Voluntary lock-in deadline (approx. 8/7, block 961,632)—if 55% miner support is already reached before this, it can lock in early. Currently far from reaching it.</li><li>Mandatory signaling period—after the voluntary deadline, this phase theoretically forces miners to make clearer statements, but even here, support must still reach 55% to count.</li><li>Activation (if threshold met) (approx. 9/1, block 965,664)—only if truly met will the new rules officially take effect for supporting nodes for one year.</li></ol> Plain-language summary: This entire mechanism is like "phased voting," with later stages approaching the decisive moment, but as of now, support at every stage remains far below the passing threshold, so it will most likely end at the "signaling phase" without actually reaching activation. <h2>What impact does it have on ordinary investors?</h2> Based on current support levels, this proposal is highly unlikely to comprehensively change Bitcoin network rules, so the BTC on the main chain you hold will not be affected. The real risk scenario to watch is if abnormal changes occur during the mandatory signaling period, which could temporarily increase market narrative hype or volatility. However, this is an emotional aspect rather than an actual change to on-chain rules. The threshold for modifying consensus rules in Bitcoin has always been very high, and this discussion to some extent reflects that, which is one reason many people consider Bitcoin trustworthy. This matter is still developing, and details along with the latest progress will continue to be updated on my Threads (cryptomommy9429). Those interested can follow for the latest developments. ⚠️Disclaimer: This article is for current events education and information compilation only and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; readers should judge and bear investment risks on their own.

What Impact Does Bitcoin BIP110 Have on the Bitcoin in Your Hands? #BTC

Price Pullback, Position Structure Still Consolidating Last week, Bitcoin briefly fell below 77,000 USD, and this weekend it has been consolidating around that level. The backdrop for this pullback includes hot inflation data, rising oil prices, and the market repricing expectations for a more hawkish Fed stance. On September 11, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately 13.29 million USD in net outflows, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of outflows. ETF Flows: Short-Term Cooling, Not a Full Retreat Looking only at consecutive outflow days can easily lead to misjudging it as institutional withdrawal, but extending the timeframe reveals a different picture. For the week ending September 4, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately 986.9 million USD in weekly net inflows. Medium-term allocation demand has not disappeared; short-term funds are simply reducing exposure ahead of macro events—this is risk-management behavior, not confirmation of a trend reversal. This Week’s Two Major Risk Windows The first risk point is the September 15 CLARITY Act Senate procedural vote (cloture vote). This vote decides “whether to proceed to formal debate,” not whether the bill ultimately passes; even if it clears the threshold, multiple procedural steps remain before it reaches the President’s desk for signature. If the market interprets “entering consideration” directly as “regulatory clarity,” it risks overestimating the short-term bullish impact. The second risk point is the September 16 FOMC rate decision, dot plot, and Chair press conference. The key focus of this meeting is not just the rate move itself, but the Fed’s wording on the future path of rates. If retail sales data are strong, price pressures have not eased, and the post-meeting tone is hawkish, the dollar and Treasury yields could rise together, pressuring BTC; conversely, if signals are more dovish, risk assets may attract fresh buying. Notably, U.S. August retail sales and import/export price indexes are also scheduled for September 16 (20:30 Taipei time), right before the FOMC decision release, making it the last major macroeconomic data point ahead of the meeting. Technical View: 77,000 USD as the Divide, 76,000 USD as the Defense Line The area around 77,000 USD is currently the short-term bull-bear watershed, while 76,000 USD is a relatively important defensive zone. If ETF outflows persist, the FOMC stance turns more hawkish, and price breaks below the defense zone, leveraged-position cascades could amplify the decline; conversely, if regulatory developments are positive, the Fed does not signal further tightening, and funds flow back in, BTC may have another chance to challenge the 78,000–80,000 USD range. Conclusion This week is not suitable for heavy bets on a single direction. Rather than predicting the outcome of the news itself, it is more important to observe whether price can hold support after the news lands and whether ETF flows return. Controlling leverage and avoiding chasing prices before the two major events are announced will be more practical than guessing the results. ⚠️This article is for market information and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

CLARITY Act Vote, Wait-and-See Pattern Before FOMC Decision #BTC

Summary: This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund inflows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks.-------(Main Text)Bitcoin surged from 63K to 77K last week, pulled back briefly, then broke through again in the past two days to stand above 79K, setting a new high for this rebound. As discussed earlier, this rally began as a short squeeze—short positions were heavily forced to close—but funding rates did not rise accordingly at the time, and most chips remained on exchanges. It resembled a typical short squeeze rebound rather than an established trend. However, things changed. Real buying started entering around 8/20. What happened from 8/20 until now? Below are the on-chain observations so far. 📅 After 8/20: Real Spot Buying Enters After the short squeeze, signals clearly strengthened. The Bitcoin ETF Netflow chart shows several days with significantly larger single-day net inflows, a scale rarely seen recently, indicating institutional buying has clearly warmed up. At the same time, Total Exchange Outflow (30-day average) for both spot and derivatives exchanges began climbing from 8/18, rising to a high around 8/20, moving in sync with the price rally from 63K to 73K. This period indeed saw large amounts of Bitcoin withdrawn from exchanges, not merely leveraged positioning. This is the clearest dividing line between judging a "short squeeze" versus "real buying." However, note that after the weekend, the average outflow for both exchange types retreated from their highs—spot exchanges declined from near their peak, and derivatives exchanges weakened in tandem, even as prices continued to edge higher. Withdrawal momentum has slowed in recent days, suggesting a slight increase in selling pressure or profit-taking. This will be revisited in the observation list below. One more piece of supporting evidence: The URPD (supply distribution) chart shows a clear supply cluster in the $76-78K range, sitting just below the current spot price of $78,564 and still in profit. This cluster formed rapidly only after the 20th. It indicates that a batch of chips was indeed acquired in this price zone and remains on-chain, rather than being purely internal exchange leverage activity. This aligns with the earlier observations of amplified ETF net inflows and rising exchange withdrawals, further supporting the judgment that "real buying has entered this rally." 📒 Profit-Taking Test: Still Ongoing As the price retook the short-term holder cost basis (around 67K) and the realized cost of newly entered whales (around 68.9-70K), this previously underwater supply turned into profit-taking—on 8/20 alone, roughly $614 million was realized, a record high. This was a critical demand test: if new buying can absorb this selling pressure and price holds the cost zone, it signals a true structural shift to strength. Although the price has reclaimed the previous high (around 79.3K), it has spent very little time above this level and volume has not expanded meaningfully to accompany it. It resembles a "low-volume rally," insufficient to conclude that the profit-taking test has passed. 👀 What to Watch Now With the price breaking above the prior high, the original whale cost zone (67-70K) has shifted from a "resistance test line" to a "key support observation area" on pullbacks. Going forward, continue tracking: 1️⃣ Whether withdrawal momentum from spot and derivatives exchanges can rebound—the post-weekend averages for both have retreated from highs; if they continue weakening, it indicates cooling buying and withdrawal willingness2️⃣ Whether exchange reserves will turn back to outflows—before this rebound, reserves had only just broken a two-year downtrend and reclaimed the 200-day moving average; a return to outflows would reaffirm the long-term supply contraction narrative3️⃣ Whether price can hold the 67-70K cost zone and the newly formed 76-78K supply cluster on pullbacks; a break below could revive earlier short-squeeze concerns.(Data source: Crypto Mommy @ CryptoQuant) ✏️ One-Sentence Summary This wave of rally has gradually evolved from a pure short squeeze rebound into a market supported by spot buying and ETF fund flows, but the time above the previous high is still too short and volume has not significantly increased. Whether the profit-taking test has truly passed remains to be observed. The structure leans healthy, but whether the "trend is solid" still requires confirmation through continued spot buying, further volume expansion, and whether key support holds during pullbacks. ⚠️ The above is on-chain data observation, not investment advice.

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

<h2>What is NUPL?</h2> In addition to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, there is another classic indicator—NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss), which is also a commonly used tool for judging market sentiment and capturing cycle turning points.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/7b3e2e43-49ee-43ad-a1b2-c7613c7af460.avif" /><blockquote>NUPL is calculated as: (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ Market Cap.</blockquote> Here is a brief explanation of two terms: <ul><li>Market Cap: The market capitalization calculated by multiplying the current Bitcoin price by the circulating supply, representing the valuation the market is currently willing to assign to Bitcoin.</li></ul> <ul><li>Realized Cap: Not calculated using the current price, but by taking the price at the last time each unspent Bitcoin on-chain was moved, multiplying by the quantity, and summing them all up, representing the concept of the market’s “average cost basis.”</li></ul> Therefore, NUPL essentially answers one question: Compared to the market’s average holding cost, is the current market valuation showing large profits or large losses? <h2>How to Interpret the Values?</h2> Assume that at this moment, everyone in the market simultaneously settles their coins at the current market price:

<h2>什麼是 NUPL？</h2> 比特幣鏈上分析除了 SOPR （Spent Output Profit Ratio，已花費產出利潤比）之外，還有另一個經典指標——NUPL（Net Unrealized Profit and Loss，淨未實現損益），同樣是判斷市場情緒、抓週期轉折點的常用工具。<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/7b3e2e43-49ee-43ad-a1b2-c7613c7af460.avif" /><blockquote>NUPL 的算法是：（市值 − 已實現市值）÷ 市值。</blockquote> 這裡先簡單解釋兩個名詞： <ul><li>市值（Market Cap）：用現在的比特幣價格乘上流通量算出來的市值，代表市場現在願意給比特幣的估值。</li></ul> <ul><li>已實現市值（Realized Cap）：不是用現在的價格算，而是把鏈上每一筆尚未被花費的比特幣 最後一次被移動時的價格， 乘上該筆數量後全部加總，代表全市場的「平均成本」的概念。</li></ul> 所以 NUPL 本質上在回答一個問題：現在市場的估值，跟全市場的平均持幣成本相比，是賺很多還是賠很多？ <h2>數值怎麼解讀？</h2> 假設現在這一刻，全市場所有人同時把手上的幣，用當下的市價結算： </p

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - NUPL

What is NUPL?

How to Interpret the Values?

Другие произведения автора.

Bitcoin Breaking Below $80k Looks More Like a Liquidity Sweep, Not a Trend Reversal

What Impact Does Bitcoin BIP110 Have on the Bitcoin in Your Hands? #BTC

CLARITY Act Vote, Wait-and-See Pattern Before FOMC Decision #BTC

BTC Breaks Through 79K: From Short Squeeze to Spot Buying Taking Over, How to View the Chip Structure

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Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - CDD

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