Price Pullback, Position Structure Still Consolidating Last week, Bitcoin briefly fell below 77,000 USD, and this weekend it has been consolidating around that level. The backdrop for this pullback includes hot inflation data, rising oil prices, and the market repricing expectations for a more hawkish Fed stance. On September 11, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately 13.29 million USD in net outflows, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of outflows. ETF Flows: Short-Term Cooling, Not a Full Retreat Looking only at consecutive outflow days can easily lead to misjudging it as institutional withdrawal, but extending the timeframe reveals a different picture. For the week ending September 4, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately 986.9 million USD in weekly net inflows. Medium-term allocation demand has not disappeared; short-term funds are simply reducing exposure ahead of macro events—this is risk-management behavior, not confirmation of a trend reversal. This Week’s Two Major Risk Windows The first risk point is the September 15 CLARITY Act Senate procedural vote (cloture vote). This vote decides “whether to proceed to formal debate,” not whether the bill ultimately passes; even if it clears the threshold, multiple procedural steps remain before it reaches the President’s desk for signature. If the market interprets “entering consideration” directly as “regulatory clarity,” it risks overestimating the short-term bullish impact. The second risk point is the September 16 FOMC rate decision, dot plot, and Chair press conference. The key focus of this meeting is not just the rate move itself, but the Fed’s wording on the future path of rates. If retail sales data are strong, price pressures have not eased, and the post-meeting tone is hawkish, the dollar and Treasury yields could rise together, pressuring BTC; conversely, if signals are more dovish, risk assets may attract fresh buying. Notably, U.S. August retail sales and import/export price indexes are also scheduled for September 16 (20:30 Taipei time), right before the FOMC decision release, making it the last major macroeconomic data point ahead of the meeting. Technical View: 77,000 USD as the Divide, 76,000 USD as the Defense Line The area around 77,000 USD is currently the short-term bull-bear watershed, while 76,000 USD is a relatively important defensive zone. If ETF outflows persist, the FOMC stance turns more hawkish, and price breaks below the defense zone, leveraged-position cascades could amplify the decline; conversely, if regulatory developments are positive, the Fed does not signal further tightening, and funds flow back in, BTC may have another chance to challenge the 78,000–80,000 USD range. Conclusion This week is not suitable for heavy bets on a single direction. Rather than predicting the outcome of the news itself, it is more important to observe whether price can hold support after the news lands and whether ETF flows return. Controlling leverage and avoiding chasing prices before the two major events are announced will be more practical than guessing the results. ⚠️This article is for market information and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

CLARITY Act Vote, Wait-and-See Pattern Before FOMC Decision #BTC

--- Data Observation --- Over the past two weeks, ETH rose from $1,876 on 8/10 to $2,507 on 8/26, an increase of over 30%. Logically, many people's first reaction would be: the on-chain activity should also be hot, right? But the data shows that's not necessarily the case. According to Glassnode's statistics, during the same period, ETH's active address count dropped from 499,000 on 8/20 to 414,000 on 8/26; moreover, from 8/22–8/23 it once fell into the 350,000–370,000 range. In other words: prices are rising, but on-chain usage (at least in terms of active addresses) is declining, and the two lines are moving in opposite directions. If we pull the timeline back a bit further, the situation is even more interesting. At the beginning of August, it was the opposite: ETH's active addresses once surged to a near six-month high (approaching one million per day), but the price was mostly stuck around $1,870, even dipping slightly. Looking at these two periods together, it's like a relay race: first on-chain activity heats up, but prices don't follow; then it's prices' turn to catch up, but on-chain activity cools down instead. This actually reminds us of one thing: "active addresses" and "price" are not necessarily two indicators that move in sync. - Active addresses are more like looking at "how many people are using this chain"—influenced by factors such as L2 expansion, airdrops, DeFi activities, bot interactions, etc.- Price, on the other hand, reflects "how much capital the market is willing to pay for this asset"—more easily driven by factors like ETF fund flows, overall risk sentiment, leverage positions, etc. Because the driving forces are different, short-term divergences are actually quite common. For those just starting to look at on-chain data, a better approach is to view "usage-type indicators" and "capital/price-type indicators" separately; only when both sides consistently show signals in the same direction is it more suitable to use them as references for trend judgment. Conversely, if a single indicator is at odds with the price, it's most likely not a data contradiction, but a reminder that we need to look from more angles together.

Activity Up, Address Numbers Down—What Does This ETH Wave Tell Us?

Debasement Trade is one of the hottest macro narratives from late August to now. Its core logic is: when investors believe the dollar's purchasing power will continue to erode due to "high debt + high deficits + policy intervention in the bond market", funds will shift to scarce assets (gold, Bitcoin, some crypto assets) as a hedge. <h2>What is Debasement Trade?</h2> <ul><li>Definition: Investors expect fiat currencies (especially the USD) to lose long-term purchasing power, so they reduce holdings in cash and sovereign debt while increasing exposure to "scarce, inflation-resistant, non-sovereign" assets such as gold and Bitcoin.</li><li>Trigger conditions: Expanding fiscal deficits, rising government debt, central banks or treasuries intervening in bond markets to "suppress long-end yields" (e.g., expanding long-term Treasury buybacks), and rising inflation expectations.</li></ul> <h2>Why is it heating up again now? Three catalysts</h2> U.S. federal debt breaks through $40 trillion <ul><li>On 8/18, U.S. Treasury debt officially surpassed $40 trillion, reaching approximately $40.1 trillion by 8/25; the CBO projects a FY2026 deficit of about $1.9 trillion (roughly 6% of GDP), with interest payments and mandatory spending continuing to push deficits higher.</li><li>High debt + high deficits = markets worry that future debt will only be diluted through "inflation + monetization", which is exactly the core narrative of Debasement Trade.</li></ul> <h2>Treasury expands long-term Treasury buybacks, intervening in the yield curve</h2> <ul><li>Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an expansion of long-term Treasury buybacks aimed at lowering long-end yields; markets interpreted this as a signal of "fiscal dominance", reinforcing expectations of long-term USD depreciation.</li><li>Result: The dollar weakened while gold and Bitcoin strengthened in tandem; Bitcoin briefly broke above $80,000 and gold hit a three-month high in mid-to-late August.</li></ul> <h2>Geopolitical risks and oil prices lift inflation expectations</h2> <ul><li>Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and Brent crude returning to $90/barrel have markets concerned that inflation will remain sticky, making it harder for the Fed to ease policy and possibly even prompting rate hikes, further reinforcing the incentive to "hold physical/scarce assets".</li></ul> <h2>Market evidence: Bitcoin-gold correlation surges</h2> <ul><li>Grayscale research shows Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with gold rising from near 0% at the start of the year to over 50%, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 fell from 60%+ to around 33%, indicating Bitcoin is shifting from "tech-stock beta" toward "gold-style hedging".</li><li>BlackRock Digital Assets head Mitchnick also noted that debt and deficit concerns are driving capital toward Bitcoin and gold, strengthening Bitcoin's macro allocation case.</li><li>Bernstein directly lists Debasement Trade as one of Bitcoin's main medium- to long-term upside drivers, projecting a mid-2027 target of $150,000 and $300,000 by 2029.</li></ul> <h2>But Debasement Trade is not a one-way street: Fed hawks are the biggest headwind</h2> <ul><li>Waller's hawkish Jackson Hole speech (emphasizing inflation not yet under control and more work to do) caused markets to reprice September rate-hike odds to around 60%, strengthening the dollar and short-end yields while gold and Bitcoin pulled back in tandem.</li><li>Goldman Sachs scenario analysis indicates that if the Fed does hike, gold could fall back to $4,400, also suppressing short-term momentum for the "gold-Bitcoin Debasement Trade".</li><li>In other words, Debasement Trade is a "long-term structural narrative", but the short term remains dominated by "interest rates and the dollar"; when markets believe the Fed will fight inflation with rate hikes, valuations of scarce assets will first come under pressure.</li></ul> <h2>Implications for Bitcoin: Repricing from "risk asset" to "macro hedge"</h2> <ul><li>If Debasement Trade continues to unfold, Bitcoin will increasingly be viewed as "digital gold" rather than "tech-stock beta", with capital sources expanding from crypto speculators to macro funds and sovereign/institutional allocators.</li><li>Grayscale even highlighted Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Zcash as potential beneficiaries due to their scarcity, decentralization, and censorship resistance, aligning with the need for "non-sovereign value storage".</li><li>Investors should still note: the 90-day correlation is a short-term indicator; if Fed hawkishness persists and the dollar strengthens, Bitcoin may still pull back in tandem with gold rather than rising unilaterally.</li></ul> <h2>What should investors watch?</h2> <ul><li>Fiscal side: Whether U.S. Treasury debt continues to climb, whether Treasury buyback policy expands, and whether CBO deficit forecasts are revised upward.</li><li>Monetary side: The Fed's stance on inflation and rate hikes, the September FOMC rate decision, the DXY dollar index, and the 10-year real yield.</li><li>Asset side: Whether Bitcoin-gold correlation remains elevated, whether gold holds key support (e.g., $4,410–$4,320), and whether Bitcoin ETF flows remain net positive.</li></ul> Overall, Debasement Trade provides Bitcoin with a "macro hedge" medium- to long-term narrative, but short-term price action still hinges on the Fed-dollar tug-of-war: if markets believe "the debt problem can ultimately only be solved through inflation", demand for Bitcoin and gold allocations will keep rising. If the Fed insists on combating inflation with rate hikes, scarce assets will first undergo a valuation correction before waiting for the next liquidity inflection point.

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

SpaceX (SPCX) Post-IPO Valuation Reshaping, Industry Competitive Landscape, and In-Depth Analysis of Secondary Market Investment Value #SPCX

<h2>What is NUPL?</h2> In addition to SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), Bitcoin on-chain analysis has another classic indicator—NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit and Loss), which is also a commonly used tool for judging market sentiment and capturing cycle turning points.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/7b3e2e43-49ee-43ad-a1b2-c7613c7af460.avif" /><blockquote>NUPL is calculated as: (Market Cap − Realized Cap) ÷ Market Cap.</blockquote> Here is a brief explanation of two terms: <ul><li>Market Cap: The market capitalization calculated by multiplying the current Bitcoin price by the circulating supply, representing the valuation the market is currently willing to assign to Bitcoin.</li></ul> <ul><li>Realized Cap: Not calculated using the current price, but by taking the price at the last time each unspent Bitcoin on-chain was moved, multiplying by the quantity, and summing them all up, representing the concept of the market’s “average cost basis.”</li></ul> Therefore, NUPL essentially answers one question: Compared to the market’s average holding cost, is the current market valuation showing large profits or large losses? <h2>How to Interpret the Values?</h2> Imagine that at this moment, everyone in the market simultaneously settles their coins at the current market price:

<h2>什麼是 NUPL？</h2> 比特幣鏈上分析除了 SOPR （Spent Output Profit Ratio，已花費產出利潤比）之外，還有另一個經典指標——NUPL（Net Unrealized Profit and Loss，淨未實現損益），同樣是判斷市場情緒、抓週期轉折點的常用工具。<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/7b3e2e43-49ee-43ad-a1b2-c7613c7af460.avif" /><blockquote>NUPL 的算法是：（市值 − 已實現市值）÷ 市值。</blockquote> 這裡先簡單解釋兩個名詞： <ul><li>市值（Market Cap）：用現在的比特幣價格乘上流通量算出來的市值，代表市場現在願意給比特幣的估值。</li></ul> <ul><li>已實現市值（Realized Cap）：不是用現在的價格算，而是把鏈上每一筆尚未被花費的比特幣 最後一次被移動時的價格， 乘上該筆數量後全部加總，代表全市場的「平均成本」的概念。</li></ul> 所以 NUPL 本質上在回答一個問題：現在市場的估值，跟全市場的平均持幣成本相比，是賺很多還是賠很多？ <h2>數值怎麼解讀？</h2> 假設現在這一刻，全市場所有人同時把手上的幣，用當下的市價結算： </p

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - NUPL

What is NUPL?

How to Interpret the Values?

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CLARITY Act Vote, Wait-and-See Pattern Before FOMC Decision #BTC

Activity Up, Address Numbers Down—What Does This ETH Wave Tell Us?

Debasement Trade's Impact on Bitcoin #BTC

SpaceX (SPCX) Post-IPO Valuation Reshaping, Industry Competitive Landscape, and In-Depth Analysis of Secondary Market Investment Value #SPCX

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