--- Data Observation --- Over the past two weeks, ETH rose from $1,876 on 8/10 to $2,507 on 8/26, an increase of over 30%. Logically, many people's first reaction would be: the on-chain activity should also be hot, right? But the data shows that's not necessarily the case. According to Glassnode's statistics, during the same period, ETH's active address count dropped from 499,000 on 8/20 to 414,000 on 8/26; moreover, from 8/22–8/23 it once fell into the 350,000–370,000 range. In other words: prices are rising, but on-chain usage (at least in terms of active addresses) is declining, and the two lines are moving in opposite directions. If we pull the timeline back a bit further, the situation is even more interesting. At the beginning of August, it was the opposite: ETH's active addresses once surged to a near six-month high (approaching one million per day), but the price was mostly stuck around $1,870, even dipping slightly. Looking at these two periods together, it's like a relay race: first on-chain activity heats up, but prices don't follow; then it's prices' turn to catch up, but on-chain activity cools down instead. This actually reminds us of one thing: "active addresses" and "price" are not necessarily two indicators that move in sync. - Active addresses are more like looking at "how many people are using this chain"—influenced by factors such as L2 expansion, airdrops, DeFi activities, bot interactions, etc.- Price, on the other hand, reflects "how much capital the market is willing to pay for this asset"—more easily driven by factors like ETF fund flows, overall risk sentiment, leverage positions, etc. Because the driving forces are different, short-term divergences are actually quite common. For those just starting to look at on-chain data, a better approach is to view "usage-type indicators" and "capital/price-type indicators" separately; only when both sides consistently show signals in the same direction is it more suitable to use them as references for trend judgment. Conversely, if a single indicator is at odds with the price, it's most likely not a data contradiction, but a reminder that we need to look from more angles together.

Activity Up, Address Numbers Down—What Does This ETH Wave Tell Us?

Bitcoin is currently standing above $78,000, with both technical indicators and on-chain data sending the same signal: an attempt to build a bottom is underway, leaning bullish in direction, but it has not yet faced a real test. Technical Analysis: Both 200MAs Have Been Recovered The price has simultaneously moved above the daily 200MA and the weekly 200MA.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/81f670a3-1231-4fcc-837c-d838038111f3.avif" />After breaking below the weekly 200MA in early June this year, the price oscillated around the 200WMA for the next two months until it broke out strongly on August 19. This pattern also appeared in 2019. Since the 200WMA has always been strong support, historically Bitcoin bear markets have consolidated near this zone for up to about 1 year and 3 months, or as short as about 3 weeks. Therefore, repeated fluctuations in this range can be seen as a common signal of the bottom-building phase.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/bcd2a061-a651-45ca-a8d2-59924a32a42b.avif" />However, there is still one hurdle above: the daily 365MA (around $82K). On September 3, the price once surged to $82,293 and touched this line, only to be pushed back near $79,000. Whether the daily 365MA can hold with a close is the key technical resistance to watch closely next. On-Chain Data: STH/LTH Cost Basis Has Not Yet Been Retested Comparing the STH &amp; LTH Realized Price chart, the current price is above the average cost of both short-term and long-term holders.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/f0a4e0ef-f246-436c-af70-5bf26ba63653.avif" />Looking at SOPR data: STH-SOPR is hovering just above 1.00 (short-term buyers are roughly breaking even, market sentiment is neutral), while LTH-SOPR continues to sit at levels representing cycle bottoms (below 1). <img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/99ac4124-f86c-476e-9250-72a1efce4085.avif" /><img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/d7e86767-8617-41cf-8d75-976a21bb8576.avif" />Unrealized Profit/Loss <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">NUPL sits at 0.32</a> (&gt;0 indicates holders are on average in slight profit), and Market Value to Realized Value <a href="https://metaverse9429.com/btc-dashboard/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">MVRV sits at 1.4</a> (&gt;1 indicates the market trades at a premium to realized cost), both falling in the optimistic recovery or transition zone. Together these figures point to: sentiment turning positive, but far from overheated. This is a healthy signal, though it also means the bottom support has not yet undergone a real stress test. Don't Ignore: This Rally Has a Short Squeeze Component The sharp surge from August 19-21 saw over 17,000 BTC in short positions forcibly liquidated, meaning it was partly "squeezed" higher rather than purely built on new buying. Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) hit a new range high positive at the same time, showing spot buyers also joined in. However, this momentum has recently turned negative while price remains supported at high levels, indicating selling pressure and support are still battling without a clear winner.<img src="https://static2.fansone.co/images/48ba5f85-1c98-496d-85db-937a3d8a22fc.avif" />Conclusion The current setup is "technicals turning bullish, on-chain sentiment turning positive, but bottom support and overhead resistance have not yet been truly validated." Recovering the 200-week/daily moving averages is solid progress, and the fact that the STH/LTH cost basis has not been broken is a plus. Yet until the 365MA is reclaimed with a close and spot buying momentum returns, this remains an "attempt to leave the bottom," not a "confirmation of leaving the bottom." The closing prices over the next few weeks will be the most critical window to validate this thesis.

Emerging from the Bottom, But Not Yet Steady 

Price Pullback, Position Structure Still Consolidating Last week, Bitcoin briefly fell below 77,000 USD, and this weekend it has been consolidating around that level. The backdrop for this pullback includes hot inflation data, rising oil prices, and the market repricing expectations for a more hawkish Fed stance. On September 11, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately 13.29 million USD in net outflows, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of outflows. ETF Flows: Short-Term Cooling, Not a Full Retreat Looking only at consecutive outflow days can easily lead to misjudging it as institutional withdrawal, but extending the timeframe reveals a different picture. For the week ending September 4, U.S. spot BTC ETFs recorded approximately 986.9 million USD in weekly net inflows. Medium-term allocation demand has not disappeared; short-term funds are simply reducing exposure ahead of macro events—this is risk-management behavior, not confirmation of a trend reversal. This Week’s Two Major Risk Windows The first risk point is the September 15 CLARITY Act Senate procedural vote (cloture vote). This vote decides “whether to proceed to formal debate,” not whether the bill ultimately passes; even if it clears the threshold, multiple procedural steps remain before it reaches the President’s desk for signature. If the market interprets “entering consideration” directly as “regulatory clarity,” it risks overestimating the short-term bullish impact. The second risk point is the September 16 FOMC rate decision, dot plot, and Chair press conference. The key focus of this meeting is not just the rate move itself, but the Fed’s wording on the future path of rates. If retail sales data are strong, price pressures have not eased, and the post-meeting tone is hawkish, the dollar and Treasury yields could rise together, pressuring BTC; conversely, if signals are more dovish, risk assets may attract fresh buying. Notably, U.S. August retail sales and import/export price indexes are also scheduled for September 16 (20:30 Taipei time), right before the FOMC decision release, making it the last major macroeconomic data point ahead of the meeting. Technical View: 77,000 USD as the Divide, 76,000 USD as the Defense Line The area around 77,000 USD is currently the short-term bull-bear watershed, while 76,000 USD is a relatively important defensive zone. If ETF outflows persist, the FOMC stance turns more hawkish, and price breaks below the defense zone, leveraged-position cascades could amplify the decline; conversely, if regulatory developments are positive, the Fed does not signal further tightening, and funds flow back in, BTC may have another chance to challenge the 78,000–80,000 USD range. Conclusion This week is not suitable for heavy bets on a single direction. Rather than predicting the outcome of the news itself, it is more important to observe whether price can hold support after the news lands and whether ETF flows return. Controlling leverage and avoiding chasing prices before the two major events are announced will be more practical than guessing the results. ⚠️This article is for market information and research reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

CLARITY Act Vote, Wait-and-See Pattern Before FOMC Decision #BTC

SOPR（Spent Output Profit Ratio）is one of the most commonly used Bitcoin profit/loss indicators in on-chain analysis, suitable as the first tool for fans getting started with on-chain analysis.<h2>What is SOPR?</h2>SOPR evaluates the overall profit ratio of market participants by comparing the value of a UTXO（Unspent Transaction Output）at the time it is spent versus when it was created. In simple terms, it can be used to estimate whether the "moved Bitcoin" in the current market is being sold in a profitable or loss-making state.The calculation is straightforward: SOPR = USD value at the time of spending (realized value) ÷ USD value at the time of creation (cost basis), which is "current value ÷ past value".<h2>How to Interpret This Indicator's Value?</h2>When SOPR is greater than 1, it means that on average, coins moved during this time frame are being sold at a profit; SOPR exactly equal to 1 indicates break-even on average; SOPR less than 1 means coins are on average being sold at a loss.This is the most basic and easiest part to explain to fans: SOPR &gt; 1 = market is realizing profits, SOPR &lt; 1 market is selling at a loss.<h2>Trends Are More Meaningful Than Single Values</h2>When SOPR rises, it indicates profits are being realized, coins that were in profit are being transferred to others, which may also mean profit-taking selling pressure is increasing, or overall market conditions for sellers are becoming more favorable; when SOPR falls, it indicates losses are being realized, possibly reflecting increased loss-cutting selling pressure and worsening conditions for sellers.<h2>Practical Applications in Bull and Bear Markets</h2><ul><li>Bull market: As prices rise, more holdings turn profitable, and long-term holders tend to take profits when opportunities arise. If SOPR approaches or falls below 1 after a correction, it indicates that profit-taking holders' coins are in "dormancy," which may be an entry signal; if SOPR continues to rise, it may indicate increasing profit-taking selling pressure, or even suggest approaching a local or macro top.</li><li>Bull market pullback: Newcomers may panic sell, while long-term holders may add to positions during the dip; if profitable coins continue flowing into the market, SOPR will gradually decline; if newcomers engage in capitulation selling, SOPR may approach or drop below 1, while profitable coins remain dormant, reflecting market confidence and subsequent rebound potential.</li><li>Bear market: When supply continues to exceed demand, SOPR may appear elevated. At local lows, investors cutting losses will push SOPR significantly below 1, creating entry opportunities for contrarian traders. During the reversal and recovery phase, SOPR may rise back above 1. If the bear market enters a final capitulation stage, SOPR may remain below 1, indicating that remaining profitable coins continue to stay dormant, setting the stage for a subsequent supply squeeze.</li></ul>---<h2>Simple Analogy for Newbie Readers</h2> SOPR is like the average profit and loss statement for the entire Bitcoin market: every moved Bitcoin tells you whether that coin was sold at a profit or at a loss. A single day's number has little meaning; the focus is on long-term trends and the critical moments when it breaks below or rises above 1, which usually correspond to turning points in market sentiment.

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

📌Bitcoin price is oscillating between 81,000 and 84,000, where will it head next? This episode uses K-line charts, on-chain data, and the derivatives market to help you identify Bitcoin's most critical support and resistance levels recently. (If the content is helpful, please like + share to let the algorithm push it to those who need it🫰)<iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/1HcdDH_MMYE"></iframe> Key points of this episode: ・Daily support: 81,500～82,000 (previous resistance turned support + lower edge of fair value band)・Upper resistance: around 84,000 (URPD densest supply zone), breakout targets previous high of 87,000・Lower support: after breakdown look at 77,000～78,000 (supply accumulation + liquidation liquidity)・ETF net inflow momentum weakens, turned to net outflow last week・Coinbase Premium enters deep negative territory, US buying interest weak・Options Put/Call Ratio rebounds slightly but remains at relatively low levels, market cautious but not pessimistic・Before this week's CPI and PPI inflation data releases, the market leans toward waiting and seeing *If the content is helpful, please like + share to let the algorithm push it to those who need it🫰

📌比特幣價格在 81,000 到 84,000 之間震盪，下一步會往哪走？ 這集用 K 線圖、鏈上數據和衍生品市場，帶你找出比特幣近期最關鍵的支撐位與阻力位。（如果內容有幫助，請按讚+分享，讓演算法推送給需要的人🫰）<iframe class="ql-video" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen="true" src="//www.youtube.com/embed/1HcdDH_MMYE"></iframe> 本集重點： ・日線支撐：81,500～82,000（前阻力轉支撐＋公允價值帶下緣）・上方阻力：84,000 附近（URPD 供應最密集區），突破後看 87,000 前高・下方支撐：跌破後看 77,000～78,000（供應積累＋清算流動性）・ETF 淨流入動能減弱，上週轉為淨流出・Coinbase Premium 進入深度負值，美國買盤偏弱・期權 Put/Call Ratio 小幅回升，但仍處相對低位，市場謹慎但不悲觀・本週 CPI、PPI 通膨數據公布前，市場偏向觀望 *如果內容有幫助，請按讚+分享，讓演算法推送給需要的人🫰

Bitcoin's Upward Move Stuck at $84,000! Break Below $81,500 Means $77,000? ETF Buying Weakens, Key Price Levels Before CPI Week Explained

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Activity Up, Address Numbers Down—What Does This ETH Wave Tell Us?

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CLARITY Act Vote, Wait-and-See Pattern Before FOMC Decision #BTC

Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis Basic Concepts - SOPR

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